Natural Gas Fill Rate -- April 14, 2022

Link here. 

It sure looks like we are about to hit a new five-year minimum. 

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Biking In The Rain

Notes From All Over -- April 14, 2022

 NY Times WORDL today:

Wordle 299 3/6

⬜⬜🟨🟨⬜
⬜⬜🟨🟨🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Days supply, crude oil: increases from 26 days to 26.7 days; link here;

• and crude oil surges;

EVs margins: the other day I noted that EV margins were marginal at best; much worse than ICE

• who agrees that EV margins are not where they need to be? link here.
  
• spoiler alert: Ford CEO
• again, I ask the question: if EVs are such a great deal for automobile manufacturers why are they all partnering with each other
• spoiler alert: hedging their bet; same reason oil companies have joint venture when drilling multi-billion-dollar plays; this is not rocket-science

PBR goes ex-dividend today, chart:

• P/E: 5
• yield: 18.6%
• 52-week high: $16.09
• yesterday's close: $15.96

US crude oil build of 9 million bbls: an anomaly.

Amazon: sold 40-year notes at 4.1% pre-tax interest rate; link.

• for every $1.00 it borrowed, it will still be paying 4.1 cents of interest in 40 years;
• what will the FCF yield be in 2062 on the $1.00 in proceeds that Amazon used to buyback shares?
• massive accretion over time

Wuhan flu: Shanghai bans private cars on roads to stem Covid surge.

• I can't make this up; link here.
• maybe "law" won't apply to those wearing masks and driving an EV;

Wuhan flu: great lock down graphics, link here;

Natural gas graphic on which utilities and stakeholders rely, link here:

• natural gas is currently more expensive that any point in any EIA scenario for the next 30 years:
• predictions, natural gas price at these scenarios:
• $6.90, low oil and gas supply;
• $3.90, high oil price
• $3.90, low oil price
• $3.00, high oil and gas supply
• natural gas today: $7.00
  
• can't make this stuff up;

What's wrong with this picture? This graphic.

• nothing
• the dot.com frenzy was just early;
• the internet fundamentally changed the world;
• there have never been better scalable businesses that created so much value for so many customers:
• Apple, Google, Meta, Amazon, Netflix

Texas: natural gas power demand hits 11-year low, link here:

• wind power
• high natural gas prices

GasBuddy has jumped the shark; note at except for cash, the price changes were inconsequential:
and even the "cash price: was inconsequential:

• regular, cash: from $4.63 to $4.55 (whoo-hoo; a 1.7% drop on almost 5-handle gasoline)
• regular credit: $4.69, no change
• plus: $5.19, no change
• V-Power: $5.69, no change
• diesel: $4.99, no changee
• has GasBuddy become a tool of the Biden administration;
• what a doofus;
  

NATO: new members, Sweden and Finland; link here.

• meanwhile, diplomats still looking to crossing "t's" and dotting "i's" on Ukraine's application
• can't make this stuff up

Graph of the day, the Putin Price Hike, link here.

Got Snow? North Dakota -- April 13, 2022

Link here.

For newbies:

• although it gets cold, North Dakota is not known for lots of snow;
• this is April
• North Dakota needed the moisture badly due to drought conditions for past year;
• farmers got their spring wheat crop in before the blizzard
• all's good here
• it was worse in 1936
• nothing is so bad, it can't get worse

Great Example Of Asymmetric Warfare -- April 14, 2022

Links to Russian Black Sea flag ship being sunk:

• Peter Zeihan;
• Peter Zeihan with photo;
• ukraneews;
• operating in a pattern;
• Ukraine unveils stamp commemorating sinking of Moskva;

Miscellaneous Notes On Crude Oil -- Mid-Week -- Wednesday, April 13, 2022

Updates

April 14, 2022: how did US intel reach the soldier in the field? SpaceX sent Starlink satellite internet terminals to Ukraine. Link here. 

Original Post

Russia:

• major crude trading houses are set to slash their purchases of Russia crude oil and crude products starting mid-May
• the operative word is "slash"
• link to Julianne Geiger; source: anonymous Reuters sources.
• this will be a one-two punch
• the first punch will be direct: a decreased purchase of Ruritanian oil (for multiple reasons)
• the second punch will be indirect: lack of western technology will constrain Ruritanian oil production
• a third punch, of course, is the ability to move money between Ruritania and western banks
• if Ms Geiger posted this story at 4:30 p.m. CDT, it was obviously by traders much earlier in the day; as that news trickled out, that explains the sudden jump in the price of Brent and WTI today, Wednesday, April 13, 2022;
• one can assume the White House was monitoring the situation

Ruritania:

• asymmetric warfare;
• without question, the most important aspect of asymmetric warfare is intelligence;
• link here;
• US is moving to significantly expand the intelligence it provides to Ukraine

Comical:

• this was reported the other day: excluding Ruritania, oil output from the rest of the rest of the world (not US) is set to rise by 3.9 million bpd from March, 2022, to December, 2022.
• OPEC+ up by 1.9 million bopd
• non-OPEC+ up by 2.0 million bopd
• US: up by 1.27 million bopd
• source: IEA
• when I first saw that, I had three thoughts:
• surely, they're joking;
• what was I missing? and,
• inshallah.
• Well, it turns out I wasn't the only one who thought this was a joke
• Abhi Rajendran: "this is comical and not going to happen."
• I suppose anything's possible but the tea leaves suggest otherwise.
• Inshallah.