The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- This Is Worth The Cost Of The Subscription To The Blog -- Woodrow Star "A" 1 Is Back On Line -- November 3, 2021

This well was drilled back in 1958. It finally went off line in December, 2018, although it did produce 58 bbls over four days in June, 2019. 

And .... then nothing .... for two years ....

The well:

• 1987, A/AB/IA/150, CLR/Pan American/Prima, Woodrow Star "A" 1, Antelope field; Sanish; t10/58; cum 1.105586 million bbls 12/18; a vertical well; went off line 1/19; cum 1.106121 million bbls 9/21;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	9-2021	30	209	233	120	600	0	195
SANISH	8-2021	27	212	229	127	562	0	211
SANISH	7-2021	14	114	0	222	227	0	38
SANISH	6-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	5-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	4-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	3-2021	0	0	0	0	0July	0	0
SANISH	2-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

**********************
Why?

The last three sundry forms:

• July 16, 2012: authorization to purchase and transport oil from lease (standard, routine sundry form)
• July 29, 2015: a standard, routine spill report; a tank leak; recovered oil: two bbls; contained within dike;
• May 5, 2021: very rare letter from the NDIC regulator alerting CLR that this well has not produced oil or gas in paying quantities in over one year, and therefore the well will be placed in "abandoned-well status which has not produced oil or natural gas in paying quantities for one year."

There is not additional information. My hunch: for whatever reason, CLR did not want to abandon this well. I doubt that it was converted to a horizontal well and thus not fracked. If so, we would need to see a sundry form regarding that.

Titanic! November 3, 2021

Link here.

For newbies, to estimate the cost of any Lego set, simply multiply the number of pieces by ten and then place the decimal where it makes the most sense.

So, a 9,000-piece set should cost around $900. 

This has held true for years. If the set one is buying is less than ten cents/piece, it's a huge bargain. 

Years ago, probably five decades ago, a local toy store was going out of business. I bought every Lego set I could afford at the time. I calculated the prices to be five cents/piece, literally getting everything for half price. 

This 9,000-piece is going for less than $650. My hunch: on Amazon, eBay, elsewhere, we will see this product for more than $1,000 within a few years.

Currently, despite having just been released, it's out of stock. 

Boom! November, 2021, ISM -- Is Anybody Paying Attention? November 3, 2021

Any wonder there are supply chain shortages? 

What is the ISM? 

What Is the ISM Manufacturing Index? 

The ISM manufacturing index, also known as the purchasing managers' index (PMI), is a monthly indicator of U.S. economic activity based on a survey of purchasing managers at more than 300 manufacturing firms. It is considered to be a key indicator of the state of the U.S. economy.

An index of more than 50 indicates an expansion in the manufacturing segment of the economy in comparison with the previous month while a reading of 50 indicates no change and a reading below 50 suggests a contraction of the manufacturing sector.

Link here: this is the highest ISM in over ten years; the previous high? 64.

Boom! Link here. 

************************************
A Musical Interlude

Shades of Gray, The Monkees

Notes From All Over -- The Oreo Edition -- November 3, 2021

Boom! Link here. 

Oreos: in Target, currently sell for $3.79, for the "typical" Oreo package with which I am familiar. I quit buying Oreo years ago when prices jumped from $1.99 to $2.50. Wow, $2.50 -- that must have been a long time ago. Let's see, they say inflation in running at 7%? $3.79 - $2.50 = $1.29 / $2.50 = a 52% increase over the years. Looks like somebody is "padding" their bank account.

• price of Oreos, historical;

China: oh-oh. Covid-19, not looking good. Or go to direct to Bloomberg. Sounds like Dr Fauci was China's Trojan horse. LOL. Who wudda thought?

Inflation: all this talk about inflation -- USPS first class stamps up to 50 cents or more. I've forgotten what they cost. Does anyone buy any first-class stamps any more? 

***********************************
Trains, Plains, and Automobiles

Final Scene, Planes, Trains, and Automobiles

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- WTI Down -- Bonanza Creek Is Now Civitas -- November 3, 2021

Trifecta! So far, three companies have made dividend announcements today -- and all three have increased their dividends, including a well-known name in the Permian: 

• VNOM: 38 cents; yields 6.77%; record date, 11/10/21; payable, 11/18/2021;

VNOM: as long as we're looking at VNOM, look at its recent dividend history, ex-date, cash:

• 11/09/21: 38 cents but still well below the payouts in 2019
• 8/11/21: 33 cents
• 5/21/21: 25 cents
• 3/3/21: 14 cents
• 11/20/20: 10 cents
• 8/12/20: 3 cents

Zillow: wow, how fast it fell. Interestingly enough Jim Cramer called this when Zillow first announced it was getting into i-flipping. He was completely right on this one. Truly amazing. 

Pre-market equity indices: coming off record highs yesterday, not giving much back today (yet):

• Dow: down about 34 points;
• NASDAQ: up 17 points;
• S&P 500: down three points;
• Russell 2000: up two points;

Ten year Treasury: yield down today, albeit not much; yield at 1.538% -- doesn't make sense in era of high inflation. 

Bonanza Creek-->Civitas: follows back-to-back acquisitions. Link here. 

European energy crisis: four days have passed since gas stopped flowing to Germany through the Yamal pipeline. Link here.

COP: transcript. 3Q21. 

WTI: down today but some see $100-oil.

***************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$82.14	11/3/2021	11/03/2020	11/03/2019	11/03/2018	11/03/2017
Active Rigs	33	14	57	66	55

No wells coming off the confidential list:

RBN Energy: Pacific Coast LNG export projects gain traction, part 4. 

After a record-breaking year in which the Japan-Korea Marker topped $30/MMBtu, it looks like 2022 could finally be the year when multiple projects in the long-awaited “second wave” of North American LNG export facilities reach final investment decisions. Developers, financiers, and offtakers are all taking their time, however, to make sure projects make sense in the long term. The recent run of high prices comes after years of price declines and a COVID-related price collapse in 2020, which reduced the spreads between U.S. production and LNG destination markets, slowing the pace of LNG project development. One thing’s clear: Asia — always the focus of LNG demand growth — will become even more important going forward, and perhaps the best way to attract Asian offtakers to U.S., Canadian, and Mexican projects is to export from the Pacific Coast, assuming that feedgas can be sourced and delivered easily. In today’s RBN blog, we conclude our series on Pacific Coast LNG export development, this time focusing on projects in Western Canada.