Sunday, October 17, 2021

Quick: A Pop Quiz With Answers -- October 17, 2021

Comparing June 14, 2017, with October 14, 2021.

  • Quick: what was the price of WTI on June 14, 2017? Answer here. $46.04.
  • Quick: how much crude oil was in storage in the US that week? Answer here. 511.5 million bbls.
  • Quick: how much crude oil is currently in storage in the US right now? About 427 million bbls.
  • Quick: how much crude oil was in storage in the US based on days of supply on June 14, 2017? Answer here. 29.5 days.
  • Quick: how much crude oil was in storage in the US based on days of supply right now? About 27 days. 
  • Quick: as an investor, were you doing better in 2017 or 2021?

Whip Inflation Now! Pop It! October 17, 2021

Inflation: link to The Wall Street Journal. 

The consumer-price index, which measures what consumers pay for goods and services, rose 5.4% in September from a year earlier. 
Rising energy prices, supply-chain disruptions and an increase in spending have led to higher inflation across the country. 
While prices rose across the board for the year ended last month, the degree of change varied among different geographic regions and populations. 
Among the metropolitan areas surveyed, the largest and most urban places had some of the lowest price increases. Chicago saw an increase of 4.5%, and in the New York City area there was a 3.8% increase. The Northeast region’s rate was nearly a percentage point below the overall national level.

Rural consumers’ mean expenditures on gasoline and used cars and trucks were well above those of urban-area consumers in 2020.

Households outside urban areas spent 37% more than the U.S. average on used cars and trucks, while spending in central cities was 9% lower than the average. The spending category saw one of the largest price increases in September’s CPI, up 24.4% compared with a year earlier.

On the other hand, rent, a heavyweight in central-city consumers’ budgets, saw some of the smallest price increases in September.

Spend some time on this graphic. It speaks volumes:

Inflation if one "takes out" used cars?

  • gasoline: it's always been inexpensive in the big scheme of things; we've done the math several times on the blog
  • giving up Starbucks completely and one sushi dinner / month more than pays for gasoline
    • folks tell their insurance companies they drive 12,000 miles per year
    • new cars average at least 35 mpg (buying pick-up trucks, high-guzzling SUVs, etc, is a choice)
    • 12,000 / 35 = 350 gallons / year
    • $4/gallon = $1,400 / year
      • Starbucks: daily average, $3 / visit
        • 300 visits x $3 = $900 
      • sushi dinner for two = $50
        • once a month = $600

Dining out vs eating at home:

  • generally speaking, a couple can eat at home for less money than the tip when dining out at a fancy sushi restaurant. 
  • if you doubt me, do the math

A toy, link here. 

 
A most interesting story: invented in 1975 by classmates of Anne Frank. Yes, that Anne Frank.
  • invented in 1975
  • too expensive to manufacture until ... 2009
  • Canadian-based company looking for the next pet rock
  • exclusive agreement with Target in 2019
  • and the rest, as they say, is history.

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Sophia's New Work Area

Reason #2 Why I Love To Blog -- October 17, 2021

See these posts:

I have never been to a Slim Chickens, but I will go soon. 

Slim Chickens, wiki:

Slim Chickens is a fast-casual restaurant chain which specializes in chicken tenders, wings, sandwiches, salads, wraps, chicken & waffles, and other items. 

It was founded in 2003 by Greg Smart and Tom Gordon.

The first location opened in 2003 at 2120 N. College Avenue in Fayetteville, Arkansas, inside a building formerly home to a sushi restaurant. 

In 2005, the second location opened in the nearby city of Rogers. 

The chain's expansion accelerated in 2008 with five more company-owned locations opening in Arkansas and Oklahoma. 

In 2013, the first franchise location was opened in Texarkana by businessman Greg McKay.

The next year, six regional franchise deals were made. The company has since expanded with more than 100 locations in 19 states, with international locations in the UK and Kuwait. The 100th location officially opened at 16105 Chenal Parkway in Little Rock on Dec. 18, 2020. 

Founders: link here. 

Some random comments:

  • does anyone notice a peculiar theme regarding geographic locations?
  • talk about perfect timing: new location in Williston, ND, at same time Trenton, ND, wins the $2.8 billion lottery;
  • these guys are smart; where do most of the oil workers in Norht Dakota come from?
  • founded in 2003 -- less than twenty years later;
  • we have several locations in DFW metropolitan area; whoo-hoo!

The graphics:


The Zabolotny Wells -- Update -- October 17, 2021

This page will not be updated; these wells are tracked elsewhere.

Coming off confidential this week:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20211239411385
7-202145825

Let's update the others:

The wells :

  • 37987, a new permit, November 20, 2020, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-4A-9-1H, Little Knife,
  • 35629, 755, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-3B-10-3H, Little Knife, t7/19; cum 7K over 11 days; cum 145K 8/21; not taken off line;
  • 35628, 649, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-3B-10-2H, Little Knife, t7/19; cum 38K 8/19; cum 131K 8/21; not taken off line;
  • 21534, 783, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-3A-10-1H, Little Knife, t5/12; cum 781 bbls 5/12; cum 202K 8/21; was off line 4/21 - 7/21; back on line 8/21; no halo effect;
  • 15934, PA/82, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 4D-4-2H, Little Knife, t5/06; cum 13K 3/14;
  • 15046, 11, Petro-Hunt/Flying J Oil & Gas, Zabolotny 8-4, a Duperow well, Little Knife, this was a Red River well that produced 65K, completed back in 2001; now it's a Duperow well; cum 18K 8/21;
  • 6225, 1,392, Petro-Hunt/Gulf Oil, Zabolotny 2-3-3-C, Little Knife field, Madison Pool, t12/77; cum 3.0321 million bbls 6/17 and still producing 1,000 bbls/month; 6/17; on the monster well list; see this post; cum 3.078941 million bbls; still producing 1,000 bbls/month;

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Week -- October 17, 2021

The wells:

  • 36928, conf,  Rimrock, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X-27D, Heart Butte, I haven't tracked the FBIR Guyblackhawk wells so far but will start doing that later today;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20217434741869
7-202140111513
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2021205146761
7-2021149269202
6-202153630
5-202148260
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2021143059498
7-2021119418123
6-2021117127911
5-2021798311
4-202129481569
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20211470520260
7-20211710420791
6-20211989126554
5-20215116058241
4-20211828725524
  • 36769, conf, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-10, Capa,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20211123711355
7-2021142909173
6-202150549661
5-20212006237150
4-202145166796
  • 38193, conf, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-29-32-7HLW, Westberg, how fast can the Bakken swing? See this post. This well was permitted March 4, 2021, and was producing oil less than five months later.
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20212082344816
  • 37228, conf, Whiting, Sorenson 21-6H, Bully; at least four different oil fields in the Bakken have Sorenson wells; at least four different operators have Sorenson wells; the Bully oil field is tracked here but has not been updated since 2015;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20211258021155
7-20211710225807
6-20211894736790
5-20211585025009
4-20211013518838
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20211239411385
7-202145825
  • 36768, conf, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-10, Capa,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20211712316661
7-20212518722145
6-20212680751363
5-20213618664053
4-20211588524973