Tuesday, October 12, 2021

Coal Is Back! Three DUCs Reported As Completed; Two New Permits -- October 12, 2021

Early ski season? Deadwood, SD, looking at upwards of 24 inches of snow. Link here.

Coal is dead! Long live coal: The UK has now called up its fossil fuel fleet of power stations to keep the lights on, including coal-fired plants and even gas peakers (open cycle). Wind is struggling. Link here. 

Coal is dead! Long live coal! Spot prices for electricity have tripled. The shortage of coal, which makes up around 70% of India's electricity mix, is forcing generator and some industrial users to buy electricity at the power exchange spot prices. Link here.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs, oil and gaa:

$80.64
10/12/202110/12/202010/12/201910/12/201810/12/2017
Active Rigs29
13586759

Two new permits, #38611 - #38612, inclusive:

  • Operator: Grayson Mill Operating
  • Field: Banks (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Grayson Mill (Equinor assets) has permits for two Jay wells in NENE 25-153-98, 
    • to be sited 330 FNL and 588 FEL and 330' FNL and 616 FEL

Three permits renewed:

  • Crescent Point Energy: two Austin permits and one Narcisse permit, all in Williams County;

Six permits canceled:

  • QEP: five Moberg permits in McKenzie County, and one MHA permit in Mountrial County;

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37745, 3,340, MRO, Dancing Bull USA 32-14TFH, Moccasin Creek, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 129K after four months;
  • 37746, 4,920, MRO, Pauline USA 32-14H, Moccasin Creek, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 178K after four months;
  • 37033, 801, Whiting, KR State 13-16-2HU, Sanish, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 6K after 16 days;

Coal

Background

Electricity mix: ourworldindata.org.

 Updates (infrequent)

September, 2021: coal stocks at key global hubs fall by half in 1H21. Link at ArgusMedia. The numbers are daunting:

  • expressed as the number of days of local consumption or throughput: 40 days in June
  • is a 47% reduction y/y and last year was the year of the plague
  • this number now nears the bottom of the 2017 - 2019 range
  • the data reflects a tighter supply-demand balance in 2021 which has been a key factor in driving seaborne prices higher
  • remains a risk ahead of the northern hemisphere heating session
  • supply decline driven by two factors:
  • inclement weather early in 2021, reduced railing and discharging capacity; mining disruption from safety checks, strikes, and protests
  • the compounding impact from rising coal burn in some markets, particularly China and India, driven by firm power demand, and gas-to-coal switching in the Atlantic because of surging gas prices
  • much more at the link but despite decline in China, the article mentions nothing about the spat between China and Australia

 

Another Southwest Airlines Weather Alert -- October 12, 2021

An alert reader notes another weather alert involving Southwest Airlines. Due to "multiple slide-offs" this landing strip has been closed for two hours. Link here. 

In addition, it looks like the airline won't be flying into the Bakken any time soon. Winter is here.

On a serious note: I do not recall significant freezing or snowfall prior to Halloween when I was growing up in Williston, ND.

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Covid Vaccine Rollout

Prior to the three day "Columbus Day weekend," the number of vaccinations were trending toward one million vaccinations daily. Then, horrendous numbers over the three-day weekend, extending into Tuesday.

Average daily number of vaccinations given over the previous seven days:

  • Monday, October 11, 2021: 867,343
  • Monday, October 4, 2021: 893,520
  • Monday, September 27, 2021: 632,435

It was about the time "we" were trending towards 600,000 vaccinations / day that the administration threatened mandates.

  • Monday, September 20, 2021: 772,308
  • Monday, September 13, 2021: 772,190

Notes From All Over -- Part 2 -- October 12, 2021

Fischer Investments: after a year or so of Ken Fisher being absent from commercials for his company, I see that he has returned. For the first time in a long time, I see him in a new Fisher Investment commercial today. 

Apple, Inc: has just announced its second fall event -- Monday, October 18, 2021. This confounds the "experts." LOL. Because we are already well into the month of October, experts thought the date would be much later in October, and then this: Apple's events are "always" on Tuesday. This one is on a Monday.

Southwest Airlines: Jim Cramer does not buy the story. Nor do I. My hunch: Jim Cramer knows Phil LaBeau is a tool for the airlines (and the auto manufacturers). The new meme: Southwest Airlines' business model doesn't work. All of a sudden, the model doesn't work after all these years? LOL. David Farber, CNBC, refuses to discuss it; doesn't want to touch it with a ten-foot pole.

Permian: future wells will not be brought online by APACHE without adequate natural gas takeaway, going forward -- CEO. Link here. Pre-market: with price of oil continuing to go up, APA is down about a third of a percent in pre-market trading. EOG, also down (about 0.2%); Pioneer down bout 0.5%. Later in trading day: APA up 0.65%; EOG still down 0.27%; and PXD: down about 1.5%.

Covid origins: hopefully not blocked by a paywall. I was able to access full article. I ignored what I wanted to ignore -- I'm pretty bored with the origins of the virus -- but I enjoyed the photos. From The Washington Post. 

Israel: link here -- note: the Israelis have not -- nor has anyone -- immunized the reservoir.


Stagflation: A Reader Weighs In -- October 12, 2021

Definition: In economics, stagflation or recession-inflation is a situation in which the inflation rate is high, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high. It presents a dilemma for economic policy, since actions intended to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment. Wikipedia.

Once fossil fuels reaches the breaking point.  A price point caused by the green new deal (carbon tax/methane tax), or whatever the Dems call the kickback to funnel money to wind and solar with much siphoned off to fund Dems election, think Solandra.

Limited NG to east coast.  Of course all fossil fuels are the fault.  But we know it is pipeline.

Average citizen will not be able to function with high costs for energy and all products because of transportation costs.  Business will pull the help wanted signs.

We are not looking at stagflation.  More like deep recession to depression.  Stocks will start to fall at that time. Bitcoin will be the last reserve.

---------------: was a huge landowner, blacksmith, developed a rust resistant wheat.  At one time sold enough to plant a million acres in ND, SD, MT, MN and Canada.

The depression just about took him out.  One report: lost a million dollars in stocks.  Only the land holdings carried him through.

Women are dropping out of the workforce or not choosing to re-enter.

Printing money only lasts so long.  Germany didn't have enough wheelbarrows.

Not ready for prime time.

Questions: how many are available to work and choose not too.  To this point automation has delayed much free spending the last forty years.  I don't know when but the chicken will come home to roost.  No free lunch.

The reader mentions recession / depression. I'm thinking regional recessions.