Tuesday, July 13, 2021

Leonard Nimoy -- Video Of The Day -- July 13, 2021

A huge thanks to the reader who sent me this.

Link here: https://twitter.com/wilderfortruth/status/1414681859099930625?s=21.

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Notes From All Over -- The WFH Edition -- July 13, 2021

Gatorade: flying off the shelves. Who owns Gatorade? For $230 million, PepsiCo bought Quaker Oats in 2001 and now owns the Gatorade brand.

FANG: Carl Quintanilla takes credit for the FANG acronym; Jim Cramer says he never gets credit due him. LOL. But, if true, that's interesting about FANG.  

AAPL: surging. Up almost $2.00 / share today.

Oil: WTI, up; oil companies, down.

Instant gratification: first, look at the screenshot --

Now, my thoughts:

Black Widow was huge. Absolutely huge. But such "events" / movies will be the exception. This is the problem for movies like Black Widow. Going to the movie theater is generally a group experience: a couple, a trio, a family, a small group of friends. But, now, folks can see these things immediately by paying a premium to stream it at the same time it's released downtown. By the time the group (the couple, the trio, the family, the small group) finally gets a date scheduled, most have seen the movie and have less interest in going downtown to see the movie again.

Virgin Galactic: in free fall. The stock. Not the plane. 

The best business TV: the one-hour on CNBC with unscripted conversation among Jim Cramer, Carl Quintanilla, and David Faber, [Mark Haines (1946 - 2011) was the gold standard], between 8:00 a.m. and 9:00 a.m. CT.

The second best business TV: FastMoney (this is the one-hour show hosted by Melissa prior to the Jim Cramer's MadMoney show).

Food and beverage: will hardly be hurt by inflation; folks will pay whatever it takes to get their cereal, and their Starbucks. Trust me on this one. 

Number of days in past twelve days that US equity markets have hit new all-time highs: most since the 1960s. CNBC. Ten days in past twelve days: US equity markets hit new all-time highs.

The Goldman Sachs numbers were so good, the obvious question needs to be asked: why make workers working from home return to work .

Productivity, efficiency: has increased remarkably due to the pandemic. The effects will be lasting. 

Black swan: why have we heard "nothing" about the "black swan" (2020). The light bulb just went on: black swans are generally associated with single companies and something financial advisors worry about and protect themselves with a diverse portfolio; the 2020 "black swan" affected large segments of the global economy; it did not limit itself to one company, thus the "black swan" meme does not work. Let's check wiki: I'm wrong. Isn't this interesting? See TIL below.

Used cars: accounts for one-third of the increase in the CPI numbers that were released this morning. Take out "used cars" component, what would the CPI numbers be today? Again, the analysis regarding used cars would be interesting:

  • chip shortage
  • new car shortage
  • new cars incredibly expensive
  • after one year WFH, folks returning to work
  • college students returning to campus
  • avoidance of mass transportation due to Covid-19 / Delta variant worries 

From twitter, used cars:

Boeing:

  • Jim Cramer: scathing remarks regarding bad news coming from Boeing
  • Jim Cramer has always liked Boeing; major reversal; it will be interesting to see how the #1 CNBC apologist, Phil LeBeau will respond to most recent news coming out of Boeing;
  • Cramer says he "is just sick about this (Boeing), a national treasure"
  • Boeing:
    • huge debt load
    • down 2.5% in pre-market trading
    • up 36% in past one year

*******************************
TIL: Covid-19 Was Not A Black Swan

From wiki:

Based on the author's criteria: 

  • the event is a surprise (to the observer). 
  • the event has a major effect. 
  • after the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs. The same is true for the personal perception by individuals. 

According to Taleb, as it was expected with great certainty that a global pandemic would eventually take place, the COVID-19 pandemic is not a black swan, but is considered to be a white swan; such an event has a major effect, but is compatible with statistical properties.

White swan: "A global pandemic is clearly a white swan -- an event that is certain to occur at some point."

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Today's Random Screenshot From The Bakken -- July 13, 2021

 


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Active Rigs Hold Steady At Twenty-Three; No Wells Coming Off Confidential List --- July 13, 2021

Active rigs:

$74.35
7/13/202107/13/202007/13/201907/13/201807/13/2017
Active Rigs2311566759

No wells coming off confidential list today.

RBN Energy: setbacks to Iranian, OPEC+ talks rattle market for crude oil. 

Crude oil is demonstrating yet again its penchant for what markets hate most: surprise. 
Last month, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and collaborating governments were carefully easing the production cuts with which they steered the market through an oil-demand crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Demand was recovering as economies reopened after being locked down during most of 2020 and early 2021. 
And the near-month futures price for light, sweet crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) — having closed below zero for the first time ever on April 20, 2020 — rose above $70/bbl for the first time since October 2018. 
Until mid-June, the market’s main concern was the potential for a supply surge if Iran escaped sanctions by agreeing with the U.S. to again suspend nuclear development. 
Surprise! 
Only days after his election as Iranian president on June 18, Ebrahim Raisi announced new limits on what his government would negotiate regarding nuclear work and said he would not meet with U.S. President Joe Biden. 
Suddenly, new oil supply from Iran looked less imminent than it did before Raisi’s election. 
Then July arrived. Surprise! OPEC members and nonmembers, collectively known as OPEC+, which had been voluntarily limiting production ended an important meeting without agreeing, as had been expected, to extend their phasedown of supply restraint. Suddenly, the market had to wonder whether the result would be too little supply or a price-crushing production spree if OPEC+ discipline collapsed. In today’s blog, we examine how these developments relate to each other in the twin contexts of a rebalancing oil market and of past oil-supply management.

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Notes From All Over -- The Exuberant Edition -- July 13, 2021

Updates

CPI:

  • up 0.9% vs 0.5% expected;
  • pre-market trading immediately reverses
  • AAPL: pre-market looked to have a good day; after CPI released, AAPL turns negative in pre-market trading
  • EOG: stays green, but drops a bit after CPI released;
  • Dow trending toward green immediately fell to -78 in pre-market trading
  • S&P: barely green went to -10 after numbers released
  • NASDAQ: definitely green pre-market; after CPI released, NASDAQ goes negative to -40
  • Steve Liesman
    • raises pressure on the Fed to react sooner than later, but nothing right away
    • used cars: #1 on the list; up 10% on the month
      • would love to hear some analysis of the used-car phenomenon
      • my hunch: the reasons might surprise us

Original Post

Elon Musk schools Algore: from twitter, on Elon Musk, link here.

Market:all major indices hit new records yesterday

  • two of thee will hit new records today
  • possible that the Dow will also hit new records today

CNBC: best states for business: link here.

  • 5: Tennessee; cracks top 5 for first time
  • 4: Texas: lowest ranking since CNBC study began;
  • 3: Utah: 
  • 2: North Carolina: strongest finish in history of study; AAPL -- new campus
  • 1: Virginia -- CNBCs first back-to-back winner. Life, health, and inclusion.

Most ignored story on twitter: Saudi Arabia foreign exchange reserves;

Ft Worth: the garden spot in Texas! -- WAR52 over at twitter.

Tuesday, July 13, 2021: mark this day on your calendar. For investors, it's gonna be a huge day. 

AAPL: up slightly in pre-market trading.

Oil: up slightly in pre-market trading.

Inflation: 

 

  • historical:

  • investors, BofA July Fund Manager Survey:
    • only 22% of investors see higher inflation in the next twelve months;
      70% say it is temporary
    • nearly 73% of investors say economy in mid- or late-cycle; up 9% from June   
  • what's going on in Cuba? 
    • the underlying trigger for riots / protests in South Africa and Cuba is likely the development in food pricesfood prices are now up 40% on the year (as in 2011 before the Arab Spring)

Oil:

  • more and more indications global demand will exceed supply
  • in its monthly report, IEA warned that unless OPEC+ reaches a deal (and soon), 3Q21 could see the largest crude oil stock draw "in at least a decade."  Oil markets will tighten significantly.
  • Giovanni: following two consecutive months of decline, global oil demand surged by an estimated 3.2 mb/d to 96.8 mb/d in June;
  • Javier Blas: "strikingly, OPEC+ flagged that Russia 'has never pumped anywhere close" to its OPEC+ baseline of 11 million b/d;

Earnings, 2Q21:

  • Conagra Brands: raises dividend to 31.25 cents; record date, 8/3/21; was 27.5 cents; strong 4Q21 and full-year results; as recently as August, 2020, the dividend was 21.3 cents; between August, 2020, and August, 2021, CAG has increased its dividend 46 percent;
  • Pepsi: blows past estimates, Brian Sozzi, anchor editor-at-large;
  • JPM: down $1.60 in pre-market trading;
    • earnings top estimates
    • posts $2.3 billion benefit from releasing $3 billion in loan loss reserves after taking $734 million in charge-offs; 
    • whisper numbers killing share price
  • GS, huge beat;
    • earnings: $15.02 vs $10.24 expected; link here;
    • revenue: $15.39 billion vs $12.17 billion expected;
    • whisper numbers killing share price


Defund the police:

  • like global warming, does anyone really care?
  • Chicago gangsters outnumber cops 10 to 1 as spike in crime reaches fever pitch;
  • three top issues that get a lot of attention, but no one in DC is truly concerned
    • murder, crime; defunding the police;
    • unemployment
    • global warming: 1994 -- first major warnings came out; 2021 -- business as usual; in fact, business is much better than usual

Fun with statistics:

  • Guillain-Barré vs gun violence in Chicago
  • JNJ vaccine: Guillain-Barré: 100 people out of 12.8 million  = 0.0000078 = 0.00078%
    • people shot in Chicago over weekend: 100 / 2.7 million = 0.000037 = 0.0037%
    • 0.0037 / 0.00078 = 5x -- five times as many folks shot with guns in Chicago over the weekend compared with number of GB possibly associated with JNJ vaccine. "all" of whom who will recover; which cannot be said about the 20+ that dies from gunshot wounds over the weekend
    • which will get more coverage today?

Vaccine:

  • Delta variant deaths,
    • 0.5% were vaccinated
    • 95.5% were unvaccinated

Global warming:

AAPL:

Saudi Arabia: drops Morgan Stanely on gas pipelines deal; hires JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs; link here.

Cuba: the western hemisphere country that was most hurt by the UN over the past fifty years --

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