Sunday, April 18, 2021

The "Game Of Life" -- The Covid-19 Edition -- April 18, 2021

Wow, that was fast. 

Some folks have suggested the previous administration rushed the bureaucratic process in order to allow "emergency use" authorization of JNJ's Covid-19 vaccine. It took about a year, I suppose, to go from "zero" to "emergency authorization use" with a gazillion pages of scientific research and bureaucratic review prior to release. 

So, on a Tuesday, April 13, 2021, four business days ago, the "authorities" asked states to temporarily and voluntarily halt the administration of said vaccine. 

Now, less than four full business days later, the "authorities" are apparently ready to recommend states voluntarily resume administration of the JNJ vaccine. 

Several story lines.

One: the word on the street is that the Covid vaccine is more dangerous than the disease. One step forward three steps back on the "Game of Life" board, the "Covid-19 edition." The often talked-about, seldom-seen Covid-19 edition comes with six little pewter game pieces: the Fauci bobble-head; the Biden bubble-head; the Trump "orange man" piece; the Trump "natural color" piece; a mask; and, a syringe.

Two: the "authorities" are really, really fast readers. In less than four business days, not only did they review the gazillion pages of research, bureaucratic mumble-jumble, and legalese, it appears they are coming to a decision.

Three: sort of takes the wind out of that sail that the prior administration rushed things. It looks like the prior administration should have taken four more days to review this drug before releasing it. Or do it like NASCAR: three stages with the first stage having a scheduled yellow flag caution. 

The government should have had a first stage lasting three months, and then stopping all vaccinations to evaluate side effects for one month, with a one-week "stoppage" in the middle of the three months to evaluate the distribution process. The second stage, same as the first: three months and then shutting down for a month to study side effects. Finally, a third and final stage with no end date.

************************
The DAPL: Where We Stand Today

A Reminder:

I certainly hope the judge's decision is not released Monday.

Where we stand today:

Friday, April 9, 2021, day 0:

  • US Army Corps of Engineers won't shut it down; will let judge decide
  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Saturday, April 10, 2021, day 1:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Sunday, April 11, 2021, day 2:

  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Monday, April 12, 2021, day 3:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Tuesday, April 13, 2021, day 4:

  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Wednesday, April 14, 2021, day 5:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Thursday, April 15, 2021, day 6:

  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Friday, April 16, 2021, day 7:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;
Saturday, April 17, 2021, day 8:
  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Sunday, April 18, 2021, day 9:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Monday, April 19, 2021, day 10:

  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Tuesday, April 20, 2021, day 11:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Wednesday, April 21, 2021, day 12:

  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Thursday, April 22, 2021, day 13:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Friday, April 23, 2021, day 14:

  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

36922, The MRO Lang Well -- From FracFocus And The File Report -- April 18, 2021

The well (see this post for background):

  • 36922, AL/A,  MRO, Lang USA 41-8TFH, Reunion Bay, first production, 10/20; t--; cum 206K 2/21. The MRO L-O-T-V pad is tracked here. Note: 64,505 bbls over 17 days extrapolates to 113,832 bbls of crude oil over 30 days; 26,150 bbls over 8 days extrapolates to 98,063 bbls of crude oil over 30 days.

FracFocus (link here  -- 33-06-04594:

  • fracked 9/16/20 - 9/28/20:
  • 9.85 million gallons of water (not particularly remarkable; a moderate-size frack)
  • 86.3% water by mass;
  • friction reducers:
  • HVFR-100, DynaChem USA; CAS 64742-47-8;
  • HVFR-100, DynaChem USA; CAS 69011-36-5;

From the file report:

  • from a sundry form received November 13, 20219:
    • name change to Lang USA 41-8TFH;
    • hand-written NDIC note: target formation changed to TF B1;
    • SHL changed to 1184' FNL 845' FEL, section 8-151-93
    • BHL changed to 190' FNL 2460' FEL, section 12-151-94
    • administrative fee for this change: $25.00
  • original permit:
    • middle Bakken:
    • 3200-acre spacing unit: sections 5/6/7/8-151-93, E2 of sections 1 & 12 - 151-94
  • completion report
    • TD: 23,509'
    • target, Three Forks first bench, geologic top, top TVD: 10,638'.
    • IP: 
      • oil: 5,099 bbls
      • gas (MCF): 4,771
    • completion:
      • 17 million lbs proppant; huge frack;
      • stages: 52
      • volume: 234,497 bbls
  • geologist's report not yet scanned in file report

MRO Reports Another Huge Well In The Bakken -- Extrapolates To 114,000 Bbls Over 30 Days -- April 18, 2021

"Preliminary" data for this well has been reported often on the blog in the past few weeks. Now we have the "official" word. And it's huge. 

Added later: not only that, the parent well seems to be doing very, very well, contrary to what many have opined in the past, and it appears the daughter well will be a much bigger well than the parent well. But again, remember, I am inappropriately about the Bakken. One assumes the "parent" well has long been paid for.  

Added later: see more about these wells at this post.

The well:

  • 36922, AL/A,  MRO, Lang USA 41-8TFH, Reunion Bay, first production, 10/20; t--; cum 206K 2/21. The MRO L-O-T-V pad is tracked here. Note: 64,505 bbls over 17 days extrapolates to 113,832 bbls of crude oil over 30 days; 26,150 bbls over 8 days extrapolates to 98,063 bbls of crude oil over 30 days.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20212827922279882452762227592512790
BAKKEN1-20213131653317823043447235453631741
BAKKEN12-20203055580554865119873570702600
BAKKEN11-2020826150265392202530526289830
BAKKEN10-202017645056360767387679184402020158

On another note, just out of curiosity, how is this "daughter" well doing in comparison to the "parent" well? Remember, the experts tell us that the "daughter" wells in the shale will do significantly worse than the "parent" wells, and, furthermore, could irreparably damage the parent wells. So, let's look.

The parent well in this case:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2021285396537537911014714297
BAKKEN1-202126389438532840623478143
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20200000000
BAKKEN3-20202513591758693152701303
BAKKEN2-2020516001301800153
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20191673676523079830640
BAKKEN12-2018311561150847718271228323

Comparing The Jaw-Dropping Initial Production Of A Bakken Daughter Well With That Of Her Parent Well -- April 18, 2021

Let's compare the initial production data for a "parent" well with that of a "daughter" well in the Bakken. 

First the "parent" well.

The parent well in this case:

BAKKEN1-2012315030495694044963645665
BAKKEN12-201131580558831150469420712437
BAKKEN11-20112463226174130851813362
BAKKEN10-201131355440375381181258745
BAKKEN9-20113046024116910368323931110
BAKKEN8-20113151505067105452824293806
BAKKEN7-201131592558661291559336201787
BAKKEN6-20113061606626131369256296452
BAKKEN5-2011305256519099761995366674
BAKKEN4-20113064396524136773336561597
BAKKEN3-20112657195625106862935549606
BAKKEN2-20112765476501137071196602367
BAKKEN1-201131876685461977818379990
BAKKEN12-20103110469106242457963649254525
BAKKEN11-2010301291812643303311818011642
BAKKEN10-201024911993002288787607742
BAKKEN9-2010301493514788499512872012692
BAKKEN8-201024230303700358

Now the initial production for one of the daughter wells to this parent well.

A daughter well:

  • 36922, AL/A,  MRO, Lang USA 41-8TFH, Reunion Bay, first production, 10/20; t--; cum 206K 2/21. The MRO L-O-T-V pad is tracked here. Note: 64,505 bbls over 17 days extrapolates to 113,832 bbls of crude oil over 30 days; 26,150 bbls over 8 days extrapolates to 98,063 bbls of crude oil over 30 days. 
oolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20212827922279882452762227592512790
BAKKEN1-20213131653317823043447235453631741
BAKKEN12-20203055580554865119873570702600
BAKKEN11-2020826150265392202530526289830
BAKKEN10-202017645056360767387679184402020158

Feel free to put your jaw back in place after comparing the first five months of production for the daughter well with that of the parent well. 

From 9/10 through 1/11 (five months): 56,207 bbls of crude oil produced (as reported) for the parent well.

In seventeen days, the daughter well produced 64,5005 bbls. 

'Nuff said. For now. 

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- April 18, 2021

The wells:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20212228639746
1-20213377048418
12-20206198274423
11-20204755859299
10-20202128218886
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20212094626499
1-20212873838832
12-20203454843312
11-20204716355128
10-20202855332402
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20211665819362
1-20212443728114
12-20202548727786
11-20203039026538
10-20201381110405
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20211538713681
1-20212386126029
12-20203058337114
11-20203066830361
10-202077502997
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20211942222574
1-20212888833235
12-20202724529702
11-20202664423267
10-20201337310074
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20212827922279882452762227592512790
BAKKEN1-20213131653317823043447235453631741
BAKKEN12-20203055580554865119873570702600
BAKKEN11-2020826150265392202530526289830
BAKKEN10-202017645056360767387679184402020158