Sunday, February 28, 2021

Two CLR Morris Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- February 28, 2021

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A couple of CLR Morris wells will be coming off confidential list this next week. The wells:

  • 37713, conf, Morris 12-26H1, Oakdale, no production data,
  • 37793, conf, CLR, Morris 14-26HSL2, Corral Creek, no production data,

The CLR Morris wells are tracked here.

Current graphic of the Morris wells:

Those wells in the southeast quadrant still on confidential:

  • 37713, conf, CLR, Morris 12-26H1,
  • 37714, conf, CLR, Morris 13-26H,
  • 37793, conf, CLR, Morris 14-26HSL2,
  • 37715, drl, CLR, Carson Peak 11-35H2,
  • 37716, conf, CLR, Carson Peak 12-35H1,
  • 37794, conf, CLR, Carson Peak 13-35H,
  • 37795, conf, CLR, Morris 14-35HSL2,

Some observations regarding those most recent permits:

  • added three more second bench Three Forks wells;
  • chronologic numbers are up to 14, but that's 2x = 28

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Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- February 28, 2021

The wells:

  • 37713, conf, Morris 12-26H1, Oakdale, no production data,
  • 37672, conf, Minnkota Power Cooperative, J-ROC1 1, wildcat, no production data,
  • 36206, conf, CLR, Polk Federal 13-33HSL, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20203243968588
11-20203666268878
10-20201723130627
9-20202420
  • 35712, conf, Whiting, Renbarger 24-34HU, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20201127953881
11-20201763068036
10-20201986260458
9-20203270566516
  • 37793, conf, CLR, Morris 14-26HSL2, Corral Creek, no production data, 
  • 37308, conf, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HC, Spotted Horn, no production data, 
  • 36245, conf, BR, Maverick 2D MBH, 
  • 37704, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-11C-2-1HS, Dimmick Lake, no production data, 
  • 37307, conf, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HY,
  • 37306, conf, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HG, Spotted Horn, no production data, 
  • 37639, conf, BR, Cherry Ice Cream 1V TFH, Haystack Butte, no production data, 
  • 37305, conf, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HZ, Spotted Horn, no production data, 
  • 35952, conf, Whiting, Renbarger Federal 34-33-2TFH, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2020164452773
11-20201959511640
10-2020983920739
9-20201177322567
8-2020096
  • 37715, drl/NC, CLR, Carson Peak 11-35H2, Oakdale, 
  • 37638, drl/drl, BR, Cherry Daquiri 1W MBH, Haystack Butte, no production data, 
  • 37637, drl/drl, BR, Cherry Margarita 1X TFH, Haystack Butte, no production data, 
  • 37636, drl/drl, BR, Cherry Claire 1Y MBH, Haystack Butte, no production data, 
  • 37635, drl/drl, BR, Cherry Tree 1Z TFH, Haystack Butte, no production data, 
  • 37304, drl/NC, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HIL, Spotted Horn, no production data, 
  • 37097, A/F, Hess, BW-Spring Creek-149-99-1201H-6, Cherry Creek, first production, 8/20; t--; cum 84K 12/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20203122943230292981839267318687399
BAKKEN11-202030203762012931223413422533316009
BAKKEN10-202075116527690701185078663984
BAKKEN9-202030282622831047306582792289235320
BAKKEN8-2020369286659521617490265014821

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Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- February 28, 2021

Monday, March 8, 2021: 13 for the month, 69 for the quarter, 69 for the year.
37713, conf, Moris 12-26H1,
37672, conf, Minnkota Power Cooperative, J-ROC1 1
36206, conf, CLR, Polk Federal 13-33HSL,

Sunday, March 7, 2021: 10 for the month, 66 for the quarter, 66 for the year.
35712, conf, Whiting, Renbarger 24-34HU,

Saturday, March 6, 2021: 9 for the month, 65 for the quarter, 65 for the year.
37793, conf, CLR, Morris 14-26HSL2,

Friday, March 5, 2021: 8 for the month, 64 for the quarter, 64 for the year.
37789, conf, K T Enterprises,

Thursday, March 4, 2021: 8 for the month, 64 for the quarter, 64 for the year.
37308, conf, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HC,
36245, conf, BR, Maverick 2D MBH,

Wednesday, March 3, 2021: 6 for the month, 62 for the quarter, 62 for the year.
37704, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-11C-2-1HS,
37307, conf, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HY,

Tuesday, March 2, 2021: 4 for the month, 60 for the quarter, 60 for the year.
37306, conf, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HG,

Monday, March 1, 2021: 3 for the month, 59 for the quarter, 59 for the year.

  • 37639, conf, BR, Cherry Ice Cream 1V TFH,
  • 37305, conf, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HZ,
  • 35952, conf, Whiting, Renbarger Federal 34-33-2TFH,

Sunday, February 28, 2021: 23 for the month, 56 for the quarter, 56 for the year.

  • 37715, conf,  CLR, Carson Peak 11-35H2,
  • 37638, conf, BR, Cherry Daquiri 1W MBH,
  • 37637, conf, BR, Cherry Margarita 1X TFH,
  • 37636, conf, BR, Cherry Claire 1Y MBH,
  • 37635, conf, BR, Cherry Tree 1Z TFH,
  • 37304, conf, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HIL,
  • 37097, conf, Hess, BW-Spring Creek-149-99-1201H-6,

Saturday, February 27, 2021: 16 for the month, 49 for the quarter, 49 for the year.

  • None.
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Covid Vaccine And EVs -- February 28, 2021

If one wants any more proof that what's holding back America, one doesn't have to look any farther than federal bureaucratic regulations and the Covid-19 vaccine story. In less than a year, three US vaccines have reached the market. Under normal circumstances, two of the three may have never seen the light of day, and none of the three would have come to market in less than five years, again, under normal circumstances.

Trump will get no credit. 

This was Trump's JFK moonshot.

This was Trump's Eisenhower's June 6, 1944.

This was Trump's Groves' / Oppenheimer's Manhattan Project. 

Overnight it was announced that the FDA had authorized emergency use of J&J's single-dose Covid-19 vaccine. Link here to Barron's and the paywall.  Shares of JNJ:

  • up 1.6% in after-hours trading on Friday
  • up 18% from a year ago

World Trade Center, the twin towers:

  • architects selected: September 20, 1962
  • the Port Authority begins acquiring property: March, 1965
  • construction began: March 21, 1966
  • ribbon cutting ceremony: April 4, 1973

Boston's Big Dig:

  • planning began: 1982
  • construction began: 1991
  • construction (considered) complete: 2006
  • project concluded on December 31, 2007, with dissolution of the partnership

*************************************
EVs

Two really good articles on EV -- neither with good news for EV enthusiasts -- in today's WSJ:
how Europe became the world's biggest EV market, and why it might not last;
what's missing in the electric vehicle revolution: enough places to plug in;

I'm too busy to provide many excerpts. I may come back to these articles.

  • Tesla: in deep doo-doo. It wins in three areas:
    • marketing;
    • luxury car market;
    • charging stations.
  • but this is where Tesla will lose: in the trenches:
    • 65 new EV models launched in Europe last year;
      • another 99 are slated to come to market this year in Europe
    • 30-some new EV models launched in China last year;
    • North America: 15 new launches last year (2020)
      • 2021: 64 are planned
  • luxury car market:
    • Tesla
    • BWM AG, Mercedes and Audi launched high-end EVs
      • this year Mercedes is set to launch the EQS -- a highly automated successor to the flagship S-class

***************************
Humbled

I am truly humbled. 

I share my thoughts on the Bakken on a blog simply because it was the easiest way for me to follow the Bakken. It was one of the best things I ever did. The blog has a lot of shortcomings, most of which won't improve over time. 

I am blown away -- and humbled -- to see the names of some of the analysts that follow my blog. Yes, there are ways to do that using social media. 

But I am truly humbled. It makes me want to get more serious about blogging about the Bakken. But wow, that would get boring. 

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More On Buffett -- February 28, 2021

Before I get started, and before I forget:

  • F-150 crew cab lease: $450/month
  • Mercedes Benz GLA 250 SUV lease: $400/month

Updates

Later, 8:39 a.m.: I highly recommend investors sign up forYahoo!Finance Morning Brief. This is today's web version. After reading the two WSJ articles linked below, this article on WB appeared in my "Morning Brief": no such thing as 'too much': Warren Buffett quotes Mae West in defense of stock buybacks. It turns out: that link takes you to six more linked stories. Let's look at just one excerpt regarding buybacks:

According to Buffett’s logic, the buybacks were conducted to “enhance the intrinsic value per share for continuing shareholders and would leave Berkshire with more than ample funds for any opportunities or problems it might encounter.”

He blasted companies who repurchase stock “at simply any price,” calling that strategy “embarrassing” and just the opposite of what Berkshire likes to do.

He cited Apple’s stock — which he first purchased in late 2016 at a cost of $36 billion — as an example where his approach paid literal dividends. By July 2018, Berkshire held over a billion split-adjusted shares of the iPhone maker, or 5.2%, at a cost of $36 billion.

“Since then, we have both enjoyed regular dividends, averaging about $775 million annually, and have also — in 2020 — pocketed an additional $11 billion by selling a small portion of our position,” he wrote.

“Despite that sale — voila! — Berkshire now owns 5.4% of Apple,” Buffett declared. And because Apple continually bought back its own stock, that’s increased the value of Berkshire’s holdings, and helped boost shareholder value.

“Because we also repurchased Berkshire shares during the 21⁄2 years, you now indirectly own a full 10% more of Apple’s assets and future earnings than you did in July 2018,” the investor said.

“The math of repurchases grinds away slowly, but can be powerful over time. The process offers a simple way for investors to own an ever-expanding portion of exceptional businesses,” he added.

Original Post 

More -- but the same -- on Berkshire.

See this note from yesterday.

Now, today, these notes from The WSJ article on Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway today.

Observations:

  • Warren Buffett consistently and routinely chastises other companies for stock buybacks. This past year, BRK bought back a record $25 billion in its own shares; he defends. Fell on deaf ears. Mine.
  • again, the adulation Buffett gets: this was a very, very long article, but it wasn't until the penultimate paragraph that we read that BRK-A shares appreciated 2.3% in 2020; compare to the S&P 500: 16% in a booming stock market;
    •  the fact that BRK-A did so poorly speaks volumes about where investors/traders are putting their money; not in BRK
  • one does have to wonder; his fourth-quarter profits rose nearly 23% and his shares languish; without question, these are shares every investor should accumulate for the long haul
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
  • He admits he blew it on Precision Parts; he is too hard on himself; I was too hard on Buffett for blowing it on Precision Parts; this was related more to Covid-19 than anything else and completely unpredictable; a "black swan"; I take back my comments regarding Buffett and Precision Parts
  • I started out this note with a negative tone; after going through the article, and thinking about it, again, I apologize. I now appreciate Buffett more than ever. Seriously. I'm not being sarcastic.
  • Any "fund" that can increase its profits by almost 25% quarter-over-quarter and yet not attract buyers? The losers are the investors who don't accumulate shares in BRK; over time this will take care of itself
  • BRK-A's P/E: 16
    • most recent price: 368K
    • one-year target: 404K
  • BRK-B's P/E: --
    • most recent price: 240
    • one-year target: 260
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