Chinese Flu Watch -- January 23, 2021

North Dakota leads the nation in percent of its citizens who have received at least one vaccination. Today it is being reported that North Dakota is now moving to vaccinate folks in group Phase 1B. I believe North Dakota is the first state to have moved from Phase 1A to Phase 1B.

It's Now The Biden XL -- January 23, 2021

This argument is a good example of folks talking past each other. This argument falls on deaf ears (those of environmentalists).

The argument above (in the black box) is true in the short-term. But the environmentalists have a strategic plan.

They will give let atmospheric CO2 rise in the short term to get to less CO2 in the long run.

They are moving step-wise from A to Z.

A: 100% coal

Z: 100% solar / wind

Steps along the way: make oil so expensive that people are forced to switch from ICEs to EVs.

By eliminating pipelines, it makes oil very, very expensive to ship.

But this is the problem. As oil becomes more expensive, transportation costs become less of an issue.

There's probably an ECON-101 graph that shows two lines: price of oil and cost of producing/bringing that oil to the consumer.

There are many components that determine the price of oil Transportation is just one of them. As long as the price of oil stays above the total cost of production/delivery, oil will still reach the consumer.

The anti-pipeline folks are hoping the lines cross, with the price of oil dropping below the cost to produce / deliver oil.

Interestingly enough, my hunch is it's still much "nicer" to produce and deliver oil by CBR from North Dakota than from places like Libya. Saudi Arabia et al can't survive on $50 oil.

So, at the end of the day, I don't see stopping pipelines a a viable solution for the environmentalists in their attempt to get from A -- 100% coal to Z -- 100% solar/wind.

Somewhere along the line, the environmentalists need to stop CBR. That's the next step. Stop the pipelines, then stop the trains. That I think is impossible. Oil is so much less hazardous than many other products shipped by rail, including radioactive waste.

Meanwhile, on the policy side, the environmentalists will mandate transition to EVs where they can -- at the federal level (military) and at the state level (California).

*******************************************
The Canadian Perspective

The Globe and Mail is considered by many Canadians to be their "newspaper of record.

The Globe and Mail is reporting that "the Biden XL decision hurts, but it's not a surprise and it's not fatal to the oil patch.

U.S. President Joe Biden’s rejection of the Keystone XL pipeline is a blow to the psyche of Canada’s oil patch as it seeks to recover from last year’s oil-price crisis, but it is not a knockout punch.

The biggest surprise is how surprising this was to many Canadians given Mr. Biden’s long-stated opposition to the project. It is symbolic of his new administration’s emphasis on pulling the United States back into the global climate-change fight – regardless of the actual impact on emissions Keystone XL might have had.

The quest to build it is worthy of a Russian novel. It has been in the works for 13 years, facing regulatory reviews, federal and state legal challenges, demonstrations, rejection, approval and now rejection again. The company has for years touted its job-creating ability and relative safety in comparison with moving oil by rail.

But in that time the market evolved. The Canadian oil industry has gained other options for moving crude to its biggest customer and is also dealing with the growing realization that a transition from fossil fuels – gradual though it may be – is under way.

For me, the Biden XL has become a non-story. It encouraged US refiners to maintain legacy refineries optimized for heavier oils rather than move to new refineries optimized for lighter shale oils (the Permian and the Bakken). For me, the real issue has always been jobs. But as we've noted, joblessness is not a real issue for the political elite in Washington. Nor apparently is it for many voters. 

For the rails, it's a godsend. 

************************************
If I Recall Correctly, The New Mexico Vote For Biden Was Huge

Meanwhile in New Mexico, Reuters is reporting that New Mexico Amerindians are seeking an exemption from Biden drilling pause. 

By the way, that's an incorrect headline: there is no drilling pause. There is a leasing pause. Quit with the "fake news" already.

Link to Reuters here. 

************************************
Houston Pipeline Futures Soon To Launch?

Bloomberg is reporting that "pipeline Giants' Houston oil futures seen launching in months.

A new futures contract for the physical delivery of crude in the Houston area may only be a few months away from launching.

Enterprise Products Partners LP and Magellan Midstream Partners, the pipeline companies responsible for delivery of Houston’s two active futures contracts, said, they are joining forces to create a broader benchmark. That may happen in a few months, said Bruce Heine, a Magellan spokesman.

The Houston contracts reflect a shift in the oil industry’s focus from the storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for New York-traded futures, to the Gulf Coast. A global appetite for U.S. crudes resulted in a new web of pipelines and terminals to connect the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico to the world.

************************************
Not All That Big! LOL

Meanwhile it turns out that the one-billion-dollar-lottery winner this past week did not set a record. It's only the third largest in US history.

Notes From All Over -- Nothing About The Bakken -- Part 1 -- January 23, 2021

Wow, Saturday morning. Beautiful day in north Texas. Two big football games tomorrow. One day closer to crawdad season.

I will delay putting up the top stories of the week. That's one of the most boring things I do. I'm most excited about the four things I mentioned late last night. And this morning, I'm even more excited. 

It turns out that the CDC does track and does post the statistics that I had been looking for. This will make things so much easier to track. I track the vaccine rollout here. Again, like almost everything else on the blog, this is meant for my own personal use and would not recommend that anyone actually accept what I post as accurate. I often make content and typographical errors. I post this data simply as a quick way for me to get an idea of what is going on. It's sort of like horseshoes. I don't mind if I don't get ringers. I just want to be close so I can get a gut feeling of what's going on. If anything on the blog is important to you, go to the source.

It turns out the CDC does track the number of folks that have been immunized and posts that data. I knew they tracked that data; I did not know they posted it in real-time. By the way, there is a reason why the CDC is now posting this data in real-time, something that often does not happen in bureaucracies.

Here is the first set of data:

	A	B	C	D	E
	Total Doses Administered	Number of People Receiving 1 Or More Doses	Number of People Receiving 2 Doses	Number of People Considered Fully Immunized	Percent (B+C)/A
Jan 22, 2021	19,107,959	16,243,093	2,756,953		99.44%

It's important to note that the data provided by the CDC is only as good as the numbers the county health officials, and then the states, report to the CDC. 

Early indications: the vaccine will be annual requirement, like the "seasonal flu" vaccine. My hunch: the two vaccines will be combined into one concoction, just like the DPT vaccine, the MMR vaccine, and the dT vaccine which have been around for decades.

*********************************
Larry King Died Today

Covid-19. Age 87. Larry King.

Hank Aaron, age 86, died yesterday.

*********************************
Notes To The Family

Flat space: I'm also in a great mood because I've just re-organized the kitchen and have increased counter space by 37%. I love empty flat surfaces upon which to work and I now have that much more work area in the kitchen. It's awesome.

Soccer: our middle granddaughter plays club soccer (FC Dallas) and plays for her high school girls soccer team. She is one of only two freshmen that made the varsity team; both play club soccer. Her high school soccer team is having an incredible year. I seldom hear from the family how her team is doing unless I ask. But earlier this week, her team beat an intra-state rival, 9 - 0. She made one "beautiful" goal as her mom describes it and one assist. More importantly, they also defeated their cross-town rival. Whoo-hoo! Last night they won again (I was not told the score). This weekend they have a UIL (Texas high school) tournament. Perfect weather for the tournament it appears. Wow, I love the internet: it turns out this information is available on the internet also. I'm learning a lot: PF, PA, taxi players.

Reunion: the family is preparing for this summer's family reunion out at Flathead Lake. It appears we may actually come close to 100% participation.

Gasoline Demand -- January 23, 2021

Link here. 

Idle Rambling On A Late Friday Night -- January 23, 2021

Friday night. Feeling great. 

I'm fascinated by several stories right now. I track them over at "Investors" and "Themes - 2021" so I won't go through them again.

But this is what I'm thinking about tonight.

The US economy: ominous. I think the UAL 4Q20 earnings report was the tipping point, followed by the Dr Fauci press briefing.

The second story that that fascinates me is the semiconductor / chip story. 

Third, Apple. Wednesday.

Fourth, senility on the Big Stage. The video that went viral today (well, I guess it was "yesterday," now)  has to be scaring the bejesus out of his handlers today. He can't even follow simple three-word  instructions.

***********************************
US Economy

The weekly jobless report, it turns out, never mattered. 

Exhibit A: the election. 

After March, 2020, after Covid-19, the weekly jobless report became even more meaningless. I've talked about this before. I didn't think it was possible, but now, after January 20, 2021, the weekly jobless report is even more meaningless. No one cares. Not even the new CEO/CIC. The deplorables have become the expendables.

************************
Chinese Flu

There were three phases of Operation Warp Speed: development, manufacturing, and distribution of the vaccine. 

It looks like somebody forgot the fourth stage:  the last mile. Or should se say the last six feet, getting the vaccine from the refrigerator into the arm. That just doesn't seem to be working out. There were several reasons why. The biggest reason of course can be traced back to Cuomo/Newsom-thinking. 

Exhibit A: percent of doses available that have been actually used since distribution began:

• California 38.2%
• New York: 56.2%
• North Dakota: 85.4% 

But that shouldn't bother anyone. Japan has bought and stockpiled enough vaccine to vaccinate every Japanese citizen, and .... hasn't started vaccinating anyone yet. 

The good news: we now have metrics to follow. Not that it will make any difference but it gives me something to do. 

****************************
Semiconductors

Two companies: Apple and TMSC.

************************************
Apple

If I had to name one company that best encapsulates what is going on in the US right now, it's Apple. 

**************************
Senility on the Big Stage

After four years of the Donald, folks have something new to watch. It will be interesting to see who blinks first: the mainstream media or the handlers. I include the spousal unit and the heir-in-waiting among the handlers. 

******************************
Time For A Musical Interlude

I just can't decide what to post. There's just too much going on including 2 Guns with Denzel Washington and Mark Wahlberg, on the "Paramount HD Network."