Saturday, June 20, 2020

Notes From All Over -- Early Afternoon -- Saturday Edition -- June 20, 2020

Global electricity demand growing faster than population: link here. Previously posted, but not sure if I included that link. Also, great graphics at this link.


Tesla: files to postpone annual meeting. Perhaps more to follow.

Occidental, EOG: upgraded at SunTrust on free cash flow.

Movies: AMC reverses course; will require masks on theater-goers.

Apple: may announce Intel divorce as soon as Monday, June 22, 2020.

Exxon: restores Guyana oil production.

Rigs don't matter: this is such a great article.
  • Natural gas production didn't drop as much as we had thought at the beginning of the oil production shut-in.
  • Our NG bull thesis was predicated on the idea that once US shale oil producers shut-in production, the proportional amount of associated gas production will be lost. Since US oil production fell from ~12.5 mb/d down to ~10 mb/d, this drop of 20% should've translated to ~6 Bcf/d of production loss in associated gas production. Instead, we've only seen a drop of ~3 Bcf/d.
  • Isn't that interesting? LOL. Too bad HFIR didn't go into greater depth on why natural gas production did not drop. Something wrong with their model? Will they adjust their model? 
  • For bulls, it looks like all HFIR can count on is hotter weather, increased a/c demand. We'll see.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Wuhan flu: may have been in Italy as early as December, 2019. If true, the global strategy to flatten the curve may have been the worst possible strategy chosen in early 2020.  If so, the CDC / WHO let policy makers down. It appears that in the big scheme of things, the "lockdown" did little to change the virulence of the virus or its spread, and has merely drawn out the pandemic. We have not even entered the "second wave" which many predicted by now.

And right on cue, I found this after posting the above note:


One last comment: all of this suggests no one really understands viruses. Or at least, how to make rational public policy.

Week 25: June 14, 2020 -- June 20, 2020

Top story of the week:
The week's best graphic:
Most under-reported story:
Smallest story with biggest headline:

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:
Top national non-energy story:

Top national energy story:
Top North Dakota non-energy story:
Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top ND stories:
  • This month's Legacy Fund deposit lowest in history;  
  • Drought becoming a problem in North Dakota;
  • Legacy Fund rebounds after losing value in March and April;
  • Passenger traffic increasing at eight commercial airports in North Dakota;
  • Sturgis City Council sanctions motorcycle rally;
  • JP Morgan predicts $100-oil based on cyclical nature of the industry;
  • Hess Corp ranked top energy company in "Best Corporate Citizen";
  • US fracking slowdown creates DUC well backlog -- Rystad Energy;
  • Global electricity consumption continues to rise faster than population;
  • IEA sees largest drop in oil demand in history but predicts biggest ever jump in 2021;
Operators:
Operations:
Advantaged oil:
500K oil:
Natural gas:
Commentary:

Friday, June 19, 2020

MRO With Four New Permits In Reunion Bay -- June 19, 2020

Amtrak to cut service to Williston to three times weekly. Link here. Due to Wuhan flu, ridership has dropped 90%. Huge financial shortfalls. May be lucky to get back to 50% capacity by 2021.


*************************************
Back To The Bakken
Active rigs:


$38.846/19/202006/19/201906/19/201806/19/201706/19/2016
Active Rigs1262615628

Four new permits, #37654 - #37657, inclusive:
  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Reunion Bay (Mountrail)
  • Comments: 
    • MRO has permits for four wells in lot 2 section 5-150-93, Reunion Bay: a Medicine Crow USA well; a Howling Wolf USA well; a Joba USA well; and, an Albert USA well; all 375' FSL and all about 2250' FEL
Three Crescent Point Energy wells acquire by Hess:
  • 21158, Elena, Williams County,
  • 21159, Lloyd, Williams County,
  • 19041, Njos, Williams County,

Breaking News: PGA Player Tests Positive For Covid-19 -- June 19, 2020

Food: I don't know about the rest of the country, but here in north Texas the grocery stores are more than back to normal.
No shortages of anything.
Yes, on any given day, I might not find something I'm specifically looking for but in general, there are no shortages.
I was reminded of that looking through an old issue -- June 11, 2020 -- of The New York Review of Books. A UC-Berkeley professor has a lead article telling us about the shortages in the American food supply due to Covid-19. The title of the essay: "The Rot in our Food Supply." Wow, talk about a story that had no legs. Yes, there was a "relative" meat shortage early on but from what I can tell, there's more than enough escargot, fish, chicken, eggs, lamb, pork, and beef. After getting the gist of the article in the first three paragraphs, and realizing Mike must be living on a planet different than the one I am living on, I skimmed the rest of the article, and was unable to find any recommendations on how to make things better.
Comment: the only "good" thing about this essay was to remind me how incredibly wonderful a free market really is.
India: only one other essay worth writing about in the same issue -- "The Pillage of India," by Christopher de Bellaigue.
The author reviews two books, including one I recently bought through Amazon and am slowly working my way through: The Anarchy: The East India Company, Corporate Violence, and the Pillage of an Empire. I bought the book simply to learn more about the history of India since so many of my neighbors are first and/or second generation Indians. I haven't read that essay yet; in fact I did not even notice the essay until I was getting ready to use the magazine pages for tinder for my Weber grill chimney. The current issue of The New York Review of Books arrived yesterday and critical mass in my little hovel will be reached if I have more than one issue of The New York Review of Books.
Breaking news: PGA player tests positive. OMG. Just when they were getting back to live play. I'm not sure if we will get through this weekend; the question is whether they will stop the tournament currently under play.

Food. Back to food. I have never grilled so much as I have grilled in the past few weeks. There are many reasons for that, but suffice it to say:
  • salmon: 18 minutes, on a water-soaked cedar plank, indirect heat, but close to the coals;
  • flank steak: 90 seconds directly on lump natural charcoal, fifteen minutes in foil, following; salt/pepper rub;
  • Teres major: 18 minutes, indirect heat; hot coals; salt/pepper rub; and maybe 16 minutes if the cut is relatively small;
  • beer-can chicken: 1.25 hours; various rubs; 
  • corn, ears, in the husk, well soaked: 20 minutes, tops
From the current issue of The New York Review of Books, the following:

Police brutality, Chicago, 1972 - 1991: "A Legacy of Torture in Chicago," Peter C. Baker, a freelance writer in Evanson, IL. It should be a very interesting read; I'm always interested in learning more geography:
  • Area 2: in the predominantly black South Side
  • Area 3: city's southwest side
  • Homan Square: an off-the-books interrogation site in the North Lawndale neighborhood
  • it appears there are three areas "ripe" to become North America's next autonomous zones; what's stopping them -- even lightweights in Seattle managed to take downtown Seattle, and bantamweights in Minnesota took over Minneapolis; certainly heavyweights in Chicago can do as well, if not better;
"Mexico's Ruinous Messiah," Enrique Krauze, writer and recognized authority on Mexico. The writer adds AMLO to his list of despots, to include Turkey's Erdogan and Venezuela's Maduro. Who would have guessed. Should be a fascinating essay. I'm surprised to see it in TNYROB, and I'm surprised the editors accepted it, agreed to print it despite naming Maduro in the list of tyrants.

The scientific method, an essay by Jessica Riskin, teaches history at Stanford.

So, lots to read.

In addition, I am reading a chapter a night of White Mischief, James Fox.

Last week:


It has come down in price since I last checked about a week ago:

Disclaimer And Notes

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Note: I post a  lot of new notes every day; I update many older notes every day. I often make content and typographical errors. I try to post links "everywhere" to make it easier to fact check -- at least fact-check the source from which I got the item.

Note: I am inappropriately exuberant about the "Bakken."

Note: I often intersperse factual content with personal comments and opinions. It is difficult to tell what might be my opinion -- see one of the notes above.

Note: except for my inappropriate exuberance about the "Bakken," I don't have any hidden agenda with regard to the Bakken. With non-Bakken items, I very likely have agendas which may or may not appear obvious.

I'm off the net for awhile.