Monday, December 16, 2019

Notes From All Over, Part 4 -- December 16, 2019

Shorts: by the end of the week, we should start seeing stories about margin calls for short sellers.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

AAPL: just surged through $280/share. P/E cheap at 23.

AMZN: not returning capital to its investors. Apple is. Big time. Stock buybacks and dividends.

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Word of The Day

Chiasmus:  a rhetorical or literary figure in which words, grammatical constructions, or concepts are repeated in reverse order, in the same or a modified form; e.g. ‘Poetry is the record of the best and happiest moments of the happiest and best minds.’

Chiastic structure: the term chiastic derives from the mid-17th century term chiasmus, which refers to a crosswise arrangement of concepts or words that are repeated in reverse order. Chiasmus derives from the Greek word khiasmos, a word that is khiazein, marked with the letter khi.

Optic chiasm:  The optic chiasm is an X-shaped structure formed by the crossing of the optic nerves in the brain. The optic nerve connects the brain to the eye. To biologists, the optic chiasm is thought to be a turning point in evolution.

A bit of doggerel (see this post):
Boris says chiasmus; a brilliant mind;
Trump tweets covfefe, press un-whined;
Chiamsus has been
      in the Oxford since the seventeenth
Covfefe will be seen
      in the twenty-first, if thou dost "believenth"
Covfefe and chiasmus, one original, one Greek;
Chiasmus and covfefe, both worthy for all to speak;
One is well-defined;
The second? Unrefined.

Bakken Note -- Random -- December 16, 2019

2020 will be a make-or-break year for operators in the Bakken. Banks have little appetite for increased lending. It will be interesting to see if private equity in the Bakken becomes the big story.

One assumes the DAPL expansion will be approved. If not, huge damper on Bakken enthusiasm in the short term.

Deep pockets will be the story in the Bakken, 2020.

The companies in the Bakken to watch in 2020, in arbitrary order, but in some kind of order:
  • Oasis 
  • Whiting
  • NOG
  • CLR
  • EOG
  • Hess
  • XTO
  • Kraken
  • Zavanna
  • Enerplus 
  • Equinor
  • BR (COP)
  • Crescent Point
  • Denbury
  • Liberty Resources
  • MRO
  • WXP
  • Lime Rock Resources
  • Newfield (Encana)
  • Nine Point Energy
  • Petro-Hunt
  • QEP
A non-Bakken company that will be most interesting to follow in 2020: OXY.

Hess

Locator: 10010HESS.

Hess

  • October 23, 2023: CVX to buy Hess. Update and 2Q23 earnings presentation here.
  • 3Q22: 166,000 boepd in the Bakken;
  • 2022: CAPEX in the Bakken to jump 75% for 14% production growth. CAPEX to $790 million in the Bakken; to drive 168,000 bbls/day. Link here. Update here.
  • 2019: Bakken: 126K boepd, p 15% from 110,000 boepd one year ago; earnings here;
  • Bakken's rig count could increase by 6 rigs with Hess' 2017 drilling plans; Hess production in the Bakken could surge in CY17
  • highlights of 3Q16 earnings call;
  • November 10, 2015: recent well completions suggest Hess is using RockPile Energy Services, a subsidiary of Triangle Petroleum to complete their wells
  • 3Q14; 59 new wells; 86,000 boepd. 
  • 1Q14: May, 2014, investors' conference; 640,000 net Bakken acres; 17-rig program; CAPEX $2.2 billion; 2014 production forecast, 85,000 boepd; 125,000 boepd; 150,000 boepd; > 3,000 total operated drilling locations; 2013 30-day IPs, 750 - 900 boepd; 2013 EURs, 550K  - 600K boe; estimated recoverable resource: 1.2 billion boe
  • 4Q13: January 29, 2014, corporate earnings: 645,000 acres in the Bakken: to ramp up in the Bakken. CAPEX will stay flat at $2.2 billion in 2014 (same as 2013) but will drill 225 operated wells vs 168; 17 rigs (2014) vs 14 rigs (2013). Will focus on unconventional shale. 4Q13: average well cost, $8 million vs $11 million (2012); forecasts 80K to 90K boepd in 2014; 9 wells for typical 1280-acre unit; will test tighter well spacing; Tioga Plant expansion to be complete 1Q14; forecast 150K boepd (2018) -- represents an increase from guidance of 120,000 boepd (2016).
  • Hess Bakken Investments II, LLC: the Hess operator for Rocky Mountain assets in North Dakota, Wyoming, and Colorado; founded in 2009; Tracker Energy (TRZ) formally changed to Hess Bakken Investments II, LLC, in 2013;
  • November, 2012, NOG says Hess has 800,000 acres
  • September (2012) Power Conference presentation: 900,000 acres; 16 rigs
  • Total ND Bakken acreage: > 750,000 net acres
  • BEXP presentation says Hess has 900,000 net acres 
  • 18 rigs (1Q11; after AEZ, TRZ acquisitions)
  • American Oil and Gas deal adds 85,000 acres (closed Dec 20, 2010)
  • TRZ acquisition: 167,000 acres
  • Total acreage: 500+85+167 = 752,000 net acres (2010)
  • East Nesson (EN)
  • Impact (IM)
  • Red Sky (RS)
  • Passport
  • Stampede
  • Avalanche (AV)
  • Goliath Prospect (GO) -- American Oil & Gas
  • Stony Creek
  • Buffalo Wallow (BW)
  • Little Knife
  • West Nesson
  • Nesson Anticline (Tioga, Beaver Lodge, Capa, Hawkeye, Antelope, Blue Buttes)
  • Newburg -- Bottineau County -- removed since last presentation
  • Fryburg -- west of Dickinson -- removed since last presentation
  • During 2011 Hess transitioned from 18-22 stage to 38 stage fracking. Results are incredible.

Oasis -- This Page Is No Long Being Updated

Oasis
  • now tracked here. 
  • March 7, 2022: Oasis and Whiting merge. The new Oasis-Whiting will be tracked here.
  • 3Q21: Oasis Midstream merges with Crestwood Midstream; 3Q21 results;
  • May 3, 2021: acquires 95,000 QEP acres from FANG; EPS / revenue smashes through estimates; now has 497,000 net acres in the Bakken; prior to acquisition, 50,000 boepd; acquisition adds 27,000 boepd; total after acquisition, 77,000 boepd; 12+ years of drilling at current rate;
    • Permian: 24,000 acres; 10+ years of drilling at current rate;
    • 7,200 boepd
    • Permian: 7,200 / 24,000 = 0.3 boepd per acre
    • Bakken: 77,000 / 497,000 = 0.15 boepd per acre
  • November 12, 2020: Court approves pre-packaging restructuring plan. 
  • September 22, 2020: headed for bankruptcy?
  • February, 2020, corporate presentation -- 
  • November, 2019, corporate presenation -- 
    • Oasis' plays in the Bakken; November, 2019; company says it has --
      • gross operated top tier inventory in the Williston Basin: 1,385 mineral acres
      • net acres: 414,000
      • rigs in 2019: 2 - 3
      • 3Q19 production: 80,000 boepd;
    • compare with the Permian:
      • gross operated top tier inventory in the Delaware: 600 - 700 mineral acres; 
      • net acres: 23,000 (represents 5% of their total mineral acres in US shale
      • rigs in 2019: 2
      • 3Q19 production: 8,500 boepd (represents almost 10% of their total US shale production)
  • 4Q18/full year: 414,000 net acres; 83,000 boepd; free cash flow from the Bakken is being used to develop the Permian
  • 3Q18: revenue -- $547 million; production, 65,900 bopd; 77% oil; Williston Basin -- 110 gross operated wells; Permian: 6 - 8 gross operated wells;
  • September 17, 2018: #4 producer (has been for quite some time; not sure when it became the #4 producer)
  • contributor at SeekingAlpha says Whiting bought 55,000 net acres for $130 million from Oasis; not mentioned in the Oasis August, 2018, corporate presentation;
  • not exiting the Bakken; but will enter the Permian; not all investors happy with this;
  • January, 2018, presentation; 72,000 boepd (Williston); EURs of 1.6 million boe type curves; incredibly important presentation; also here;
  • enters the Permian; announces that it will buy 20,000 acres there; December 12, 2017
    • expects to raise $500 million by selling non-core Bakken assets 
    • had 517.8 thousand net acres in the Bakken prior to the announcement
  • announces interest in spinning off an MLP, May 19, 2017
  • Daily activity report: 156 SM Energy wells transferred to Oasis
  • Record two-month production for Oasis? February 2, 2017.
  • January, 2017: Motley Fool update; very, very bullish; SM Energy deal a big, big deal
  • November, 2016: with SM Energy deal closing December 1, 2016, Oasis should have 540,000 net acres
  • Oasis - SM Energy deal, October, 2016: SM Energy sells 55,000 non-Divide County acres to Oasis; $785 million deal
  • final estimates for full year 2016: 485,000 net acres; 45,000 to 49,000 boepd estimated; budget about $400 million; drilling and completion budget, about $200 million; 83 DUCs
  • 1Q16: 485,000 net acres; 2 rigs; core Bakken, EUR slightly more than 1 million boe; TFS1: about 810,000 boe;
  • 2Q14 earnings: 43,668 boepd, a 45% increase y/y; started operating a second frack fleet (Oasis Wells Services); LOE ballooned from $6.65 (one year ago) to $10.21/boe (due to delayed workovers on wells affected by severe winter;
  • 1Q14 earnings; sold some non-core assets; acreage should change; sold Sanish non-core for $183.4 million; August presentation: 505,960 acres; 16 rigs (includes 2 in Montana); 44K boepd; 
  • March 31, 2014: 506,960 net acres; 
  • Summary, calendar year, 2013: 515,314 net acres; 34,000 boepd; 150 wells in 2014
  • September, 2013: announces acquisition of 161,000 net acres for $1.515 billion; brings total total Williston Bakken acreage to 492,000 net acres; 42K bopd;
  • 1Q13: formed Oasis Midstream Services (SWD and other activities; cost savings of $0.3 million/well); says well costs are down to $8.4 million excluding OMS savings; inventory: 14 years @ 145 wells/year (gross operated; compare to 2012 below); 10 rigs: 5 west Williston; 5 east Nesson
  • 2012 Summary: avg daily production (doubled previous year) to 22,469 boepd; 93 net wells; net proved boe at 143 million bbls (82% increase over 2012); 335,383 net acres; 264,595 HBP; launched Oasis Well Services (internal frack provider); decrease well cost from $105. million to $8.8 million; goal for 2013 -- 30,000 to 34,000 boepd
  • January, 2013: Director, NDIC, says Burke County is edge of the Bakken; said major operator in Burke likely to pull out (in Burke County: OXY USA, Oasis, CLR, Cornerstone) 
  • November, 2012: NOG says 333,000
  • 320,000 September corporate presentation
  • 320,000 (2Q12 earnings call)
  • 307,430 (June 2012 presentation)
  • 303,231 (3Q11) (ND and Montana Bakken acreage)
  • (10,000 acres acquired in late 2010, Elm Coulee, Richland County, Montana)
  • Analyst's figure: 292,000 net acres (December 31, 2010)
  • 10 rigs [prev 9 rigs];  prev plan 12 in 2012 (3 contracted); 3 frack crews; 11 yrs of drilling if 120 wells/yr; now plan to exit 2012 with 10 rigs
  • Oasis Well Services, fracking company, 1H12; save $1 million on 20 net wells;
  • Drilling days: 29 days, avg, 2010; 26 days, avg 2011; Feb, 2012: 23 days; fastest: 18 days
  • West Williston: 208,000 net acres [previously - 201,265] [prev191,716 net acres (up slightly from 191,552, last report)]
  • East Nesson: 108,000 net acres [previously 97,956 net acres] [prev 102,786] net acres
  • Sanish: 8,000 [ previously 8,409] [prev 8,729] net acres
  • Prospects: Red Bank (north of Williston, 68K), Indian Hills (south of Williston, other side of river, deepest of the formation, Heart of the Bakken, 25K), Mondak/Other (southwest of Williston, mostly McKenzie County, 28); Hebron (Montana, directly west of Williston, Richland County, Montana, 49K); Target (Montana, northwest of Williston, west of the Red Bank prospect, 20K); St Croix (north of Cottonwood, 13K); North Cottonwood, 55K; South Cottonwood, 50K (north of Parshall); Missouri (Montana, west of Hebron, 17K);
  • Three Forks:  South Cottonwood, Indian Hills, Sanish
  • Has its own fracking company 
  • 36 stage frack: $10 million for sand/ceramic mix; $9.2 million for all sand
  • 4Q12 (est): 22,000 boepd (Feb 3, 2012 presentation)
  • 4Q11: 15,182 boepd (December: 16,200 boepd)
  • 3Q11: 14,300 boepd 
  • 4Q10: 5,206 boepd
  • Proved reserves increase 98%, 4Q11 vs 4Q10
  • it all began with MDU;

Oasis -- Random Update -- November, 2019 -- Corporate Presentation

Two slides.

I've posted these slides to remind me where the Oasis plays are in the Bakken, and what the company calls them.