2016:
- 2016, drilling budget: $200 million, "which was 57% lower than it spent in 2017." (sic)
- 2016 drilling budget roughly matched anticipated cash flows at $35-oil
- that spend would not be enough to keep production from declining
- anticipated: a fall from 50K boepd to as low as 46K boepd, year-over-year
- this was a very modest forecast (6% decline forecast) vs 10% and 14% decline anticipated by CLR, Whiting, respectively
- actual production decline:
- Oasis beat expectations; despite huge cut in drill spend, production guidance was 50K in 3Q16 -- incredible
- Oasis took advantage of that free cash flow; lowered total debt by $100 million
- Oasis took strong balance sheet / surging stock price to acquire 55,000 net acres in the Bakken
- acquired that acreage from SM Energy
- SM Energy deal added 12K boepd to Oasis production; increased drilling inventory by a whopping 25%
- will ramp up activity
- will double its rig count (Hess also plans to triple its rig count in the Bakken this year) as long as oil stays above $50
- will add a 5th rig in 2018
- on pace to deliver a compound annual production growth rate in the mid-teens through the end of next year; absolute production growth of 65% by the end of 2018 when factoring in the SM Energy transaction
- Oasis: mid-teens, then 65% production growth company-wide
- CLR: will see only an increase of 4% this year (compared to Oasis "mid-teens" production growth
- Continental plan requires $55 oil, and half of its well completions will come from the higher-return STACK and SCOOP plays in Oklahoma ("higher-return" -- financial return)
- Hess production will be up 5% this next year (again compared to Oasis "mid-teens" production growth (all forecast; estimates; mid-points)
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