Update On Oasis; Update On Permian Natural Gas -- September 26, 2016

Monday afternoon: 104 degrees in Los Angeles. 

Oasis: according to Emergent Group --

• about 485,000 net acres in the Bakken (compare with around 100,000 for CLR)
• production: about 50,000 boepd (an increase from previous guidance)
• completed 16 wells of the 53 expected; all in McKenzie County
• cut capital expenditures for drilling and completion by just over half for 2016
• capital expenditures for drilling and completion for 2016: $200 million
• total budget: about $400 million
• to date, 2016: spent about 55% of total budget (includes about $90 million in D&C capital)
• about 83 DUCs in "Bakken core counties"; with 83 DUCs, ranks among the top five operators in the Bakken with DUCs
• about 45% of DUCs are located in Wild Basin (just east of Indian Hill); others located in Indian Hills and Alger (35% of inventory); Red Bank and Montana (20% of inventory) 
• spud to rig release has decreased another 2.1 days this year; now down to 13.5 days; was 22 days in 2014
• but: negative cash flow for first six months of 2016 -- almost $600 million negative cash flow; for all of 2015 and YTD, had cash flow of $46 million (positive)
• rig history: 16 (4Q14); 5 (1Q15); 3 (2Q15 - 4Q15); since then, down to 2. 
• my notes show that in 1Q14 earnings report: 505,960 net acres; 16 rigs; 44,000 boepd

Norwegian Tesla owners sue:

• PennEnergy link
• more than 100 owners sue (specifically, 126)
• horsepower dispute
• Model S P85D said to deliver only 469 hp, versus promised 700 hp

Active rigs in North Dakota:

	9/26/2016	09/26/2015	09/26/2014	09/26/2013	09/26/2012
Active Rigs	33	71	190	184	187

RBN Energy: Update on the Permian -- natural gas output remains high; processing capacity being added.

Natural gas production volumes in the Permian Basin are very near the all-time record of 6.9 Bcf/d set last September, and crude oil and gas producers alike see nothing but blue skies for the highly prolific West Texas/Southeast New Mexico play. The Permian already has a lot of gas processing capacity, but a good bit of it is older, and parts of the region—especially the super-hot Delaware Basin—need more of the big, efficient cryogenic plants that can process 100 to 200 MMcf/d. Today, we continue our review of gas production and processing in the biggest U.S. gas-producing region that is not named Marcellus.

The past two years have been a challenging time for crude oil and natural gas producers in most of the U.S., but much less so for exploration and production companies in the 75,000-square-mile Permian Basin. In rock ‘n’ roll terms, the Permian is a lot like Bruce Springsteen––it’s been a consistent producer (of both gas and oil) for decades, and it has more respect today than ever. (You might even call the Permian “The Boss” of hydrocarbon output.)

Thanks to favorable production economics and multiple pay zones, output levels in the Permian dipped only slightly as oil and gas prices tumbled, and have since rebounded. Crude oil has always been the big draw for Permian producers, but most of the wells there also produce large volumes of liquids-rich or “wet” natural gas that needs to be processed to extract natural gas liquids (NGLs). In its latest Drilling Productivity Report, the Energy Information Administration  projected that the Permian would produce an average of nearly 6.9 Bcf/d in October, 2016, only 30 MMcf/d less than it did at its peak a year ago.

Gas production in the Eagle Ford in South Texas, meanwhile, is projected to fall below 5.6 Bcf/d in October—a 25% drop from its all-time  high in February 2015. (Of course, Appalachia, with the prolific Marcellus and Utica plays, still reigns supreme as far as gas is concerned, with almost 25 Bcf/d now being produced in the region based on RBN production numbers).

Richard Zeits on global oil glut: over at SeekingAlpha. According to the Venezuelan oil minister,

"Global production is at 94 million barrels per day, of which we need to go down 9 million barrels per day to sustain the level of consumption."

He knows a lot more than I do about this, but I think his numbers are a bit off. 

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First Ethane Shipment From Gulf Of Mexico Arrives In Europe (Norway)

From Fuelfix. Data points:

• Enterprise Products Partners press release
• Enterprise Products Partners opened the country's second ethane export terminal on the Houston Ship Channel earlier this year
• delivered its first shipment to Norway
• the first US ethane export terminal: 230 miles southwest of Philadelphia -- capacity of 35,000 bbls/day began shipping overseas in March
• Enterprise's export terminal, Morgan's Point: capacity of 200,000 bbls/day

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Spin

Even The Wall Street Journal has its spin: US new home sales down but "broader trend" still positive. I guess that's why the market (Dow 30) is in free fall, down 136 points at the moment -- mid-day trading. Data points:

• August's 7.6% drop is largest since September, 2015
• but here's the good news: analysts had expected an 8% drop
• and more broadly, through the first eight months of 2016, new-home sales were up 13.3% compared with the same period in 2015

Analysts use the word "volatile" when reporting this. 

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Sports 

NFL

Carson Wentz

• Cleveland Browns "passed" on Carson Wentz in the NFL draft earlier this year
• Philadelphia Eagles under Wentz: 3 - 0; no fumbles, no interceptions; demolished the Pittsburgh Steelers 34-3 yesterday, and Steelers starting quarterback played the entire game, I believe
• Wentz: 23/31 passes; 301 yards; two TDs
• last week he set record for rookies; this week he may have set record for all NFL quarterbacks with regard to three-game start
• NFL director of football communications: Wentz is first player in NFL history with at least 100 attempts, 60 completions, five TDs, no interceptions in first three career games
• Wentz: NDSU phenomenon (Fargo, North Dakota)

Vikings: huge win

Dallas: huge win 

Golf

Arnold Palmer dies

Phil whines