Lies, Lies, And More Lies -- An Update On That UK Grid Failure -- August 16, 2019

From iceagenow:

A huge power failure in the UK on 10 Aug 2019 cut power to trains, traffic lights and millions of people at home. Two power plants caused the failure. The official report claims that the Little Barford gas-fired station in East Anglia failed first, then, 2 minutes later, an offshore wind farm (Hornsea) in the North Sea failed 2 minutes later.

This is a lie, says WUWT (WattsUpWithThat).

The truth as revealed by detailed research by blogger is that the wind farm clearly failed first, and caused the whole event. Like the captain of the Titanic aiming for a transatlantic speed record, the UK national grid were aiming for a record percentage of power from wind. They reduced the safety margin of grid inertia for this purpose, and the result was disaster:

... the blackout’s primary cause was the sudden loss of output from Hornsea wind farm, though the precise cause of that remains unknown at this stage: likely candidates are a failure at the offshore transmission platform where the voltage is boosted to 220kV, somewhere along the cable to shore, or at the grid connection point (at Killingholme on the Humber) onshore. The really damning evidence comes in this tweet that shows grid frequency based on 1 second data. 

So much more at the link. The story is tracked here.

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The Sports Page

$330 Million Contract 

What A Great County

Probably Won't Catch Bryce Kneeling

Bryce Harper.

Last night's win.

The Cubs got yet another gem from Yu Darvish on Thursday night, and they led 5-0 going into the eighth inning.

At one point in the bottom of the ninth, the Cubs had a 99.4 percent chance of winning the game.

That's when the bullpen meltdown began. With one out, a David Bote error allowed the gates to open. Rowan Wick, Pedro Strop, and then Derek Holland proved unable to stop the bleeding.

The Phillies pulled to within 5-3, and with one out and the bases loaded Bryce Harper stepped in against Holland. First comes the power, then comes the glory ... a grand slam homer ...

And more:

Prior to tonight, the Cubs had won 489 straight games when leading by 4+ runs in the 9th or later, the longest active streak in the NL.That's also the first Phillies come-from-behind, walk-off grand slam since September of 1983. 

From wiki:

Harper won the National League (NL) Rookie of the Year Award in 2012 and tied for the NL lead in home runs in 2015. He was named the NL Most Valuable Player for 2015 by unanimous decision of the Baseball Writers' Association of America; at age 23, he became the youngest MLB baseball player to win the award.

As a free agent during the 2018–19 offseason, he signed a 13-year, $330 million contract with the Phillies, the richest contract in the history of North American sports at the time. 

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Give Me Room

Once they go to EVs, Slim will have to change the lyrics.

Hurricanes And Fake News -- August 16, 2019

Global warming ... climate change ... extreme weather ... whatever ...

First, this link: no hurricane activity for next ten days or so.

Now this, posted by hurricane watchers on August 8, 2019: their first comment --

On average, only two named storms develop in the Atlantic before August 1st arrives. The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season has started off close to normal, with the development of Andrea, Barry, and an additional tropical depression. Barry was the most notable of the three systems, briefly reaching hurricane status as it made landfall over Louisiana in mid-July.

It should be noted that there was great controversy whether Barry actually reached hurricane status. Whether it was or not, from a forecasting point of view, another hyped story. There were any number of reports suggesting that the data was fudged -- they only needed to fudge the wind by a few knots -- to classify it as a hurricane. And that's how we get fake statistics. Barry will always be counted as a hurricane ... over time ... the controversy will be long forgotten ... Weather Channel got a lot of mileage out of that "hurricane."

August history?

August normally sees three new named storms form. Any storms that do form this month will likely develop in three regions of the Atlantic basin - the Gulf of Mexico and northern Caribbean, the area of the central Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles, and the western Atlantic stretching from the Bahamas northward along Florida and up to the Carolinas.

Interestingly enough, the writers had to stretch the data a bit for last year, trying to "tie" a September storm as an "August" storm:

 Last August featured the development of three named storms, one of which had a major U.S. impact after the calender flipped into September.

Transportation Services Index And The Cass Freight Index; Western Star; Australia; And All That Jazz -- August 16, 2019

A new link at "Data Links" has been added: the Transportation Services Index.

From an earlier post: A reader sent me the link to the Cass Freight Index. The index is posted here.

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A Shout Out To Truckers Around The World

The other day there was a WSJ article about the slowdown in truck manufacturing (Class 8 -- the semis). I spoke to an individual who works for a specialty truck company on the west coast two days ago: he is working mandatory overtime. In addition, the company has bought another site for possibly building another manufacturing plant sometime in the future. There are a couple of reasons why this new plant on the west coast might be needed: Asian and Australian companies.

Australian road trains

One comment:4:14 Saw that green one last night in a clip.. 86 wheels and tyres in service and probably two spares each per trailer? 5:44 Can you imagine that. Well the lights were green when I began to pull away officer.

Western Star Australia:


Western Star 2020:


Connecting the dots:

• Western Star trucks: EVs are coming.
• Australian road trains.

OzMan: Rock On in the Western Star:


Okay, just one more.

Lights on the hill:

Flaring -- August 16, 2019

From twitter this morning.

Again, the important graph is missing: radiant heat / production ratio. It looks like that ratio might actually be down.

I thought it interesting that the "Bakken [is/was] in full panic mode." Google search revealed .... nothing. The textbook on the shale revolution -- which will probably be the "shale bible" does not have "radiative heat" in the index. That book will be released on August 21, 2019.

By the way, an alternative spelling for "flaring": "opportunity."

Any permit for a greenfield plant to help manage this problem will be approved by the NDIC in a "New York minute."

Director's Cut, June, 2019, data, posted here. North Dakota sets all-time crude oil and natural gas production records.

One Day Later -- Five Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- August 16, 2019

The net worth of every 2020 presidential candidate, Forbes, link here.  First of all, quick look, seems bogus:

• Pete Buttigieg, net worth, $100,000. Must live in a huge house with a huge mortgage 
• Andrew Yang, net worth, $1 million. No wonder he wants a thousand-dollar check from the government every month.
• Bernie Sanders, net worth, $2.5 million. Three houses?
• Beto, net worth, $4 million -- and exactly how?
• Kamala Harris, net worth, $6 million, first one on the list that is believable.
• Joe Biden, net worth, $9 million -- worked for the government his whole life, but compound interest on savings bonds for someone in his 70's
• Tom Steyer, new worth, only $1.6 billion -- and begging for $1 donations

World E&P leaders ranked by production growth, link here. Royal Dutch Shell and Chevron make the list; COP and ExxonMobil do not.

New loading option at Houston: story here. I think I posted something along this line yesterday bur not sure. Whatever. It's here now.

GE: nearing insolvency? Link here from Bloomberg. I assume this is the top story over at CNBC this morning.

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Back to the Bakken 

Most interesting story of the day (so far): for a site that wastes no time and spares no effort warning us the Bakken is dead, oilprice has not yet reported that the Bakken set all-time crude oil and natural gas production records in latest production report (data for June, 2019)

By the way, the all-time North Dakota production record:

• was not trivial; a significant jump month-over-month;
• occurred despite Baker Hughes reporting only 47 active rigs (or thereabouts) -- down from 200 rigs during the boom when production was much, much less
• was predicted by Lynn Helms about six months ago

Memo to self: need to send notes to Art Berman and Jane Nielson.

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Friday, August 16, 2019: 33 for the month; 80 for the quarter:

• 35350, SI/NC, Hess, RS-State D-155-92-0203H-4, Alger, no production data,
• 34765, SI/NC, MRO, Kinney 24-36TFH, 
• 32466, SI/NC, BR, CCU Audubon 8-8-22MBH, 
• 32399, SI/NC, Slawson, Atlantis Federal 2 SLH, 
• 26639, SI/NC, XTO, Badlands Federal 21X-13E, 

Active rigs:

$54.75	8/16/2019	08/16/2018	08/16/2017	08/16/2016	08/16/2015
Active Rigs	60	58	55	32	74

RBN Energy: owners commit to Capline reversal, Diamond expansion/extension.

Well, it’s finally going to happen!

Without major fanfare, Plains All American and Marathon Petroleum announced earlier this month that they have sanctioned the reversal of the 40-inch-diameter Capline crude oil pipeline, a move that will enable light crude to flow south on that pipe from the Memphis area to St. James, LA, starting late next year and light and heavy crude to do the same from Patoka, IL, by early 2022.

Also, Plains said it has committed to expanding the existing Diamond Pipeline between Cushing, OK, and Memphis, and extending that eastbound crude pipe from Memphis to a new interconnection with Capline. Light-crude service on the expanded, extended Diamond will commence in late 2020.

Today, we review the newly sanctioned projects and their significance to U.S. and Canadian producers, Louisiana refiners and Gulf Coast exporters.