Morning Note -- October 15, 2018

Global warming hits north Texas: wow, it's cold and rainy this morning. And it's going to be this way for a couple of days. This is the earliest winter I've seen in eleven years in Texas. Amazing. Hearing similar stories from across the US.

Great to be home again.

Politics. I watched a bit -- about five minutes -- of the CBS interview of President Trump last night. Leslie did everything she could in those five minutes to get Trump to "blow up" and walk out. Wow, he does not get rattled. And much, much more entertaining to watch than his predecessor. But five minutes was more than enough.

COP: it seems like this is odd but maybe not. My bad. I misread the headline. From SeekingAlpha, COP loves Alaska crude.

ConocoPhillips has a major understated presence in Alaska. As a source of roughly half a million barrels per day of conventional oil production, Alaska’s upstream sector is highly profitable. During the worst of the 2014-2017 downturn, ConocoPhillips still churned out $4 million in net income from its Alaskan division in 2015 and $319 million in 2016.

That grew to $1.466 billion last year, which is better put as an adjusted $684 million (excluding major tax benefits and impairment charges).

In the years to come, ConocoPhillips is likely to keep posting higher and higher net income generation from its Alaskan division. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list today -- 
Monday, October 15, 2018:
34473, conf,  XTO, FBIR Ironwoman 31X-10G, Heart Butte, no production data, 
34140, conf, WPX, Raptor 13-24HEL, Reunion Bay, no production data,
29773, conf, Slawson, Gobbler Federal 3-35-26TFH, Big Bend, no presidential pardon for this one, just in time for Thanksgiving;

Sunday, October 14, 2018:
34472, conf,  XTO, FBIR Ironwoman 31X-10C, Heart Butte, no production data, 
33821, conf,  Oasis, Lite 5393 11-11 3BX, Sanish, big well;  
33454, conf, Equinor Energy, Weisz 11-14 6H, Painted Woods, producing, albeit not that great;

Saturday, October 13, 2018:
34418, conf, Krakkne Operating, Michelle Lauren 1H, New Home, a nice well;
34417, conf,  Kraken Operating, Ellie Rose 11TFH, New Home, a nice well;
33820, conf,  Oasis, Lite 5393 11-11 4TX, Sanish, a nice well; 
33558, conf,  CLR, Mountain Gap 4-10H2, Rattlesnake Point, a huge well;
32019, conf,  Hess, CA-Stangeland-155-95-2128H-7, Capa, no production data,

Active rigs:

$71.98↑	10/15/2018	10/15/2017	10/15/2016	10/15/2015	10/15/2014
Active Rigs	67	59	31	66	190

RBN Energy: part 5, should Cushing be rename the "blending capital of the world"?

The Rainbow Oil Field

Permits: Kraken Operating currently has two permits for Rainbow-Bakken oilfield:

• 28457, 489, Kraken Operating, Gladys 1-20H, Rainbow, 40 stages; 8 million lbs, t9/14; cum 177K 8/18;
• 21736, 508, Kraken Operating, Stevenson 1-31H, Rainbow, 30 stages; 2.8 million lbs, t5/12; cum 143K 8/18;

The graphic:

Hearing dockets with Kraken / Rainbow-Bakken, case numbers (not permit numbers):

• 26801, Kraken Operating, Ellisville-Bakken, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; one well each, Williams County
• 26802, Kraken Operating, Ellisville and/or Rainbow-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; Williams
• 26803, Kraken Operating, Rainbow-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well, Williams County

Other posts mentioning Kraken / Rainbow-Bakken (not all inclusive):

• Samson Oil & Gas, 2013
• Samson Oil & Gas, 2015
• CLR, 2016
• CLR, 2016

Consolidating Bakken Links From Last Week -- October 14, 2018

A reader noted that I may have missed reporting some new permits last week (if so, it was because I was traveling). I was thrilled the reader notified me. I think this may be the best way to do this; provide links of recent Bakken posts. I did this quickly. If the links are incorrect, I will correct them later.

Because I was traveling, my Bakken updates may have gotten a bit out of order. Here are recent posts regarding the Bakken:

• wells coming off the confidential list this next week;
• results of wells coming off the confidential list this past week (at the linked site, scroll down);
• new permits; daily activity reports for the last two days of this week, Thursday and Friday;
• new permits, daily activity report for Wednesday, last week, down below;
• new permits, daily activity report for Tuesday, last week; 
• new permits, daily activity report for Monday, last week; there were eight new permits for two operators -- I just updated where those two 4-well pads will be placed;
• Director's Cut, August, 2018, data;
• top stories for the past week, week 41;

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Daily activity report for Wednesday, October 10, 2018, did not get posted. Here is that data:

Six new permits, Wednesday, October 10, 2018:

• Operators: Liberty Resources (3); Oasis Petroleum (3)
• Fields: Northwest McGregor (Williams); Squires (Williams)
• Comments: Oasis has permits for a 3-well Bobby pad in lot 1, section 2-155-102; and, Liberty Resources has permits for a 3-well McGinnity E pad in lot 1, section 6-158-95;

Six permits renewed, Wednesday, October 10, 2018:

• EOG (3): three Burke permits in Mountrail County
• Petro-Hunt: three Clark Griswold Federal permits in McKenzie County

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 24234, 1,335, Enerplus, Hyena 149-93-30A-31H-TF, Mandaree, t9/18; bcum --

Chevron Quits Norway -- I'll Be Missing You -- October 14, 2018

From Bloomberg via Rigzone:

Chevron Corp. is selling its last remaining oil exploration license in Norway, putting it one step closer to a full retreat from the aging North Sea basin as the U.S. major seeks higher returns elsewhere.

Chevron’s activity off Norway has been limited for years, but the decision to relinquish its last asset there again shows its reluctance to bet on mature regions such as northern Europe. The company is seeking to sell most of its U.K. fields -- it agreed to divest its stake in the Rosebank project to Equinor ASA [Statoil] last week -- and offloaded its only asset in Denmark in September.

Now Chevron has agreed to transfer its 20 percent stake in the PL859 license in the Barents Sea, off Norway’s northern tip, to DNO ASA. The deal, first reported by Upstream, “implies that Chevron Norge AS shuts down its operations in Norway and leaves the Norwegian shelf permanently,” the ministry said in the letter.

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I'll Be Missing You

From the official Norwegian chart list: reached number one in Norway on July 14, 1997, and stayed there for ten weeks.

I'll Be Missing You, Puff Daddy featuring Faith Evans and 112

Russia Natural Gas Discovery -- 11 TCF -- Arctic LNG -- October 14, 2018

This is a huge story, on several levels. It was reported under the Obama administration that the US would relinquish oil and gas reserves in the Arctic to Russia and five other countries. The US would not participate in Arctic exploration under President Obama.

It is now being reported that Russia has made an important Arctic discovery. 

See this post from August 5, 2018: US remains the "natural gas king."

October 8, 2019: new USGS assessment sets new records. 

Highlights from that post:

Reserves:

• Middle East: 2.8 quadrillion cubic feet = 2,080 trillion cubic feet (quadrillion is 10^15; trillion is 10^12)
• US: 309 trillion cubic feet (but see below)

I've long lost the bubble on global natural gas reserves (and I'm sure the reserves are currently way under-estimated) but back in 2016, this post:

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors. Numbers rounded. Natural gas reserves according to BP/wiki, 2013 - 2014 (US estimate as of December 2013). Top five countries:

Russia: 6,000 trillion cubic feet

add another 11 TCF from the Arctic discovery announcement, 2018

Iran: 1,000 trillion cubic feet

Qatar: 900 trillion cubic feet

Turkmenistan: 600 trillion cubic feet

US: 350 trillion cubic feet

see first comment: add another 11 TCF from Pennsylvania alone in 2019

#11: Australia: 152 trillion cubic feet (as of January, 2014). (See this post.) 

Pakistan: 10,000 trillion cubic feet (highly unlikely, something tells me we are mixing apples and oranges, reserves vs technically recoverable

Now, today, this from the Rigzone staff: Russia makes 11 TCF natural gas discovery. Link here.

PJSC Novatek has announced the discovery of a new gas field in the Ob Bay area, which is estimated to hold natural gas reserves of more than 11 trillion cubic feet. The discovery was made via an exploration well in the North-Obsk license area.

“The discovery of a new field is an important starting point for the start of one of our future Arctic LNG projects,” Leonid Mikhelson, chairman of the board of Novatek, said in a company statement posted on Novatek’s website, which was translated into English.

Now, let's go back and re-run the numbers that were posted earlier:

• that recent huge Mediterranean natural gas find: 30 trillion cubic feet
• Barnett, revised USGS figures: 53 trillion cubic feet
• Utica, newly revised figures: 782 trillion cubic feet; USGS official figure: 117 TCF, September, 2019
• Marcellus, EIA revised estimates: 65 trillion cubic feet, "proved" reserves; revised to 84 - 97 in 2019;
• Bakken/Three Forks, USGS estimate: 7 trillion cubic feet (2013 estimate)
• Qatar: 800 trillion cubic feet, wiki, conversion
• Mozambique, from the story above (see link above): 85 trillion cubic feet