The Energy And Market Page, Part 2, T+270 -- Wow, Market Surges Over 100 Points; Solidly Above 23,000 -- Trump Not Mentioned

CNBC: OPEC apparently wants to extend production cuts for another nine months.

• OPEC + Russia: currently they have agreed to keep 1.8 million bopd through March, 2018
• the extension would take them to the end of December, 2018
• not likely to deepen the cuts
• the extension is pretty much a no-brainer but Iraq, Iran, and a few others will say one thing, do another

Motley Fool: five scenarios that could push oil prices back to $100. None of them are likely to happen and if any of the scenarios happen, unlikely to push oil prices back to $100. The most likely: the need to increase production by 2.8 million bopd as early as next year to meet demand based on current supply/demand projections. But 2.8 million bopd is easy:

• unfettered, North Dakota could go to 2 million bopd in less than a few months (up from one million bopd now)
• Texas (the Permian and the Eagle Ford) could easily add another 1.5 million bopd
• OPEC: note the 1.8 million bopd above
• SCOOP/STACK; Niobrara; Alaska: could easily add another 0.5 million bopd or more

Boom: by the way, if North Dakota goes toward 2 million bopd in 2018, "Katy, bar the doors."

Dow 30: surges 113 points on opening. Late afternoon trading, up 160 points.

NYSE, new highs, 101, including -- JPM, UnitedHealth Group

• new lows: 30

The Political Page, T+270 -- We Won't See This Story On ABC News

NFL: I see the NFL commissioner is taking questions; I turned the television set off that was in the other room; not listening. I honestly do not understand why the NFL didn't simply do the easy thing: just quit playing the national anthem; and quit with the patriotic opening. Simply have the teams warm up; go into their locker rooms before the game starts (as they currently do); and then have them come out and immediately go to the coin toss and start the game. As it is right now, ESPN no longer shows the patriotic opening (they cut to a commercial) and the only ones still seeing the patriotic opening are the fans in the stands, which are increasingly more empty. And based on the booing from those in the stands, they don't want to see the patriotic opening as it is now any more than the rest of us do.

More layoffs: Time Inc., data points:

• 200 people to get the ax -- half come from the editorial ranks
• yesterday, market topped 23,000 for the first time 
• yesterday, Time shares plunge 3.4%

Crazy like a fox. The Republican National Committee raised more than $100 million in the first nine months of 2017, marking the first time it has raised that much, that fast, in a non-presidential election year.

From McClatchy DC. Data points:

• fund-raising sets a record
• more than $100 million in the first nine months of 2017
• first time that much raised that fast in a non-presidential election year
• record-breaking fundraising can be largely attributed to a flurry of small-dollar donors responding to fundraising appeals by the first Republican president in eight years
• the numbers give Republicans a huge cash advantage over Democrats as they head into new campaign season
• could be most expensive midterm field program in history
• Republicans have raised almost twice as much as the Democrats
• Republicans have nearly seven times as much money in the bank
• Trump collected a record-setting $239 million from donor who contributed $@00 or less during this2016 campaign
• so far this year, almost 60% -- more than $44 million -- has come from small donations; more than 98% of those who gave to the RNC were small-dollar donors

Probably something else we won't see on network television today:

I would suggest a noose, but that might be construed as politically incorrect. Bill Cosby is starting to look like a Boy Scout.

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article179293446.html#storylink=

The Oil And Market Page, T+270 -- October 18, 2017

Oil: API weekly report -- says US crude oil stockpiles dropped 7.13 million bbls last week. I track the EIA data which comes out tomorrow. The API data and EIA data often seem worlds apart. I have no idea whom to trust. My natural inclination is to trust the API and not the EIA but it seems the EIA has a wider audience, so I will stick with EIA.

Markets: set to soar today. Dow 30 futures up 90 points right now (7:46 a.m. Central Time). by the way, at some point, the bears will be forced to enter the market. Most of the mutual funds have sold their "dogs" this year as they close out 2017 and start to look forward to 2018.

Iraqi Oil: Iraq, after taking Kirkuk from the Kurds, Iraq plans to double Kirkuk oil output capacity to more than 1 million bopd -- can you say "Saudi Arabia in deep doo doo?"

Goldman's thoughts: then this article via Bloomberg:

The oil market is grappling with intensifying geopolitical risks as uncertainty swirls over the impact of tensions surrounding nations such as Iraq, Iran and the U.S., according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

While Iraq’s government is clashing with Kurdish forces in the north of the OPEC nation, raising the prospect of output disruptions in the region, both sides have an incentive to keep oil flowing due to low production costs and “high revenue” available per barrel, according to the bank. And though the U.S. has hardened its stance against Iran, there’s still “high uncertainty” over whether it’ll reimpose sanctions curbing the Middle East country’s crude supply.

Oil jumped almost 3 percent over the past two sessions as weeks of tensions following a Kurdish referendum on independence from Iraq on Sept. 25 flared into open conflict in the oil-rich Kirkuk region. Still, the rally fizzled on Tuesday, with prices trading little changed, as two fields pumping a combined 275,000 barrels a day were shut amid the violence.

“The limited market response so far is therefore consistent with the high uncertainty on potential production disruptions, with larger moves only likely to occur should new disruptions actually occur,” Goldman analysts including Damien Courvalin wrote in a Oct. 17 research note.

Saudi Aramco: Saudi Arabia, yesterday, was quick to reassure investors that proposed IPO is on track. No links; story everywhere.

The Daily Note

The Trump Presidency (301 - 365)
The Last 65 Days Of His First Term
Days 301 - 365

The Trump Presidency (201 - 300)
The Third 100 Days

The Third 30 Days + 10 (261 - 300) -- this page
The Second 30 Days (Days 231 - 260)
The First 30 Days (Days 201 - 230)

The Trump Presidency (101 - 200)
The Second 100 Days
 The Third 30 Days + 10 (161 - 200)
The Second 30 Days (Days 131 - 160)
 The First 30 Days (Days 101 - 130)

The Trump Presidency (1 - 100)
The First 100 Days
The Third 30 days + 10

The Second 30 Days 
The First 30 Days

Between Election And Inauguration (1 - 100)
The Third 10 Days

The Second 30 Days

The First 30 Days

November 17, 2017, T+300: Venezuela is in default. Not a peep out of North Korea for quite some time now.

November 16, 2017, T+299: Al Franken, the groper, story breaks. Falling faster than a lead ball off the Tower of Pisa. Is there a parachute to soften the landing?

November 15, 2017, T+298: Mueller moving fast and furious but no new news.

November 14, 2017, T+297: professional traders thought GE hit its low at $21 and bought in. Then a 7% in one day and now another 7% drop today. It's almost like a "death watch" or a "wake." Yesterday, it appeared that professional traders though the GE floor was $19, maybe $18. Today, it's trading below $17. With a forward P/E of 18, GE shares could easily lose half their current value.

November 13, 2017, T+296: another NFL-free Monday night for me. Quiet.

November 12, 2017, T+295: another NFL-free Sunday for me. Quiet.

November 11, 2017, T+294: a quiet day. President Trump's overseas trip continues to go well.

November 10, 2017, T+293: one gets the impression the "never-Trumpers" have no plans to pass a tax cut bill.

November 9, 2017, T+292: tax bill on "life support."

November 8, 2017, T+291: President Trump departs South Korea and heads for China. US mainstream press upset that a) President Trump did not visit the DMZ (weather); and, b) North Korea did not launch a flurry of bottle rockets. On anniversary of election, all three major market indices hit new records; and, the president himself is enjoying a highly successful trip to Japan, South Korea, and China.

November 7, 2017, T+290: tea leaves suggest the GOP tax bill is dead.

November 6, 2017, T+289: Civil war in Saudi Arabia? The Drudge Report has that banner. Meanwhile, the monster that killed 26+ people at a church yesterday Sunday was able to purchase the assault weapon because the USAF mis-filed his paperwork which would have prevented him from legally buying a gun. Any kind of gun. We don't need more gun laws: we need to enforce the laws we have; make the system foolproof; and get rid of lenient judges.

November 5, 2017, T+288: Alec Baldwin has had complete meltdown; deleted his Twitter account. Tomi Lahren: 'Pathetic' that for all Hillary's rigging she still lost to Trump.

November 4, 2017, T+287: Donald Trump has gotten inside Alec Baldwin's mind. TDS+.

November 3, 2017, T+286: unemployment at lowest rate since 2000.

November 2, 2017, T+285: After the recent terrorist attack in NYC, the mayor says he will increase security for the NYC Marathon -- you mean to tell me that after that what happened at the Boston Marathon, the mayor was going to employ less-than-adequate security for the NYC Marathon?

November 1, 2017,T+284: After latest terrorist attack in NYC, the governor of New York tells New Yorkers to take no steps to defend themselves. He tells New Yorkers to go on about life ignoring these terrorist attacks.

October 31, 2017, T+283: Manafort indictment -- a big "nothing-burger."  -- The Washington Post. On another note, "House of Cards" production is suspended: it appears Hollywood can withstand someone coming out as gay, but not someone coming out as a pedophile.

October 30, 2017, T+282: if I were Manafort, I would be heading for England today. Wouldn't be extradited for a "political crime." If Jeff Sessions can't figure out that Trump wants a special prosecutor to go after Hillary and the dossier, Sessions is a moron. On another note, Kevin Spacey does not deny he is a pedophile; simply too drunk to remember (he says) of the incident with a 14-year-old male. 

October 29, 2017, T+281: Trump strangely quiet on the pending indictment. I'm sure he knows. That's how Washington works.

October 28, 2017, T+280: the first Mueller indictment to be announced Monday. CNN will probably be the first to get the scoop. Turns out CNN and FusionGPS joined at the waist.

October 27, 2017, T+279: all of a sudden folks not interested in getting to the bottom of the "Russian dossier."  Bacon's six degrees of separation. How many dots will it take to connect Hillary with the paid-for Russian dossier? Hillary has been very, very quiet on this one. Panetta wants investigation.

"Wolf Blitzer followed up by asking Panetta why Clinton campaign attorney Marc Elias didn’t tell Clinton campaign chair, John Podesta, they had paid for the dossier.
Elias was the lawyer was represented the Clinton campaign and DNC, during the election and is alleged to have paid Fusion GPS for the Trump dossier."

October 26, 2017, T+278: very little press on the DNC-authored Trump dossier; Hillary staying low

October 25, 2017, T+277: that dossier on Trump; originated with Hillary. this changes everything -- and reported by The Washington Press -- so you know it has to be true. Also here.

October 24, 2017, T+276: Trump, through his tweets, doing what he can to kill the GOP tax cut bill.

October 23, 2017, T+275: another unnecessary and sad pissing content on Twitter -- Trump's phone calls to widows of fallen soldiers.

October 22, 2017, T+274: even Jimmy Carter agrees that the media has been tougher on Trump than on any other president. Carter also says that the Russians had no effect on the outcome of the Trump-Clinton race.

October 21, 2017, T+273: not being reported by Rachel Maddow --

During then-President Barack Obama’s first year in office, 16 people were listed working for Michelle Obama, earning a combined $1.24 million a year. This year, just four people were listed working for Melania Trump as of June. Their salaries totaled $486,700.

October 20, 2017, T+272: simply to make Trump look ineffective, it appears some talking heads on MSNBC are now rooting for ISIS to make a comeback in other parts of the world now that Trump has defeated them in the Middle East.

October 19, 2017, T+271: jobs, jobs, jobs. Making America great again. Unemployment claims drop to lowest in 44 years.

October 18, 2017, T+270: US equity market set to soar today.

October 17, 2017, T+269: pretty quiet; Fake News outlets unable to gain any traction. NFL ratings continue to fall, hitting new lows. ISIS destroyed in the Mideast; less than one year after President Trump takes office.

October 16, 2017, T+268: making America great again. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey rose to 30.2 in October, up from 24.4 recorded the previous month. That handicly beat economists' expectations for a drop to 22 and is the strongest reading since September 2014.

October 15, 2017, T+267: President Obama spent years fighting the "junior varsity." Got nowhere. President Trump, in office less than a year, and ISIS is pretty much defeated. Raqqa, it's "capital" and last stronghold of any size, is about to fall. One wonders if the mainstream press will give the US military or President Trump any credit for this incredible story. On another note, Clintons won't return a paltry $250,000 donation to Weinstein. Most likely they'll make an announcement "that the foundation will use the money to help female victims" -- this is not rocket science. And actually the Clinton Foundation has a good point: why return the money? In fact, they need to go to Weinstein and ask for more. LOL. 

October 14, 2017, T+266: Harvey Weinstein starting to make Bill Cosby look like a Boy Scout.

October 13, 2017, T+265: "I knew this all the time [about rapist Weinstein] but didn't say anything because I did not feel it was my place [to say anything]." -- Jane Fonda. Wow.

October 12, 2017, T+264: pushback from Weinstein story has fingerprints of Hillary's War Room all over it. [Later, ultimately failed.]

October 11, 2017, T+263: in his tweets, Trump is not backing down.

October 10, 2017, T+262: NFL commissioner flip-flops -- now agrees with Trump. Players should stand for the national anthem.

October 9, 2017, T+261: VP Pence walks out of home NFL game when players kneel.

Holy Guacamole, Batman, Futures Are Up Over 70 Points (On The Dow) -- October 18, 2017

The surge: I was surprised the market did not do better yesterday on both technicals and fundamentals. On the technical side, once 23,000 was breached, it seemed likely that the market would break out. On the fundamental side, the earnings reports yesterday were simply incredible, to say the least, and yet the market would not have moved had it not been for one ObamaCare health insurer -- UnitedHealth Group -- that soared.

The movers and shakers on Wall Street must have re-written the software code overnight to correct a programming glitch: this morning futures for the Dow 30 are up over 70 points.

By the way, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand why UNH soared yesterday.

The Brits apparently don't understand the US shale revolution. A reader sent me this article -- absolutely fascinating -- and so incredibly off base I will come back to it later when I have more time. The link: https://www.ft.com/content/e17930dc-b288-11e7-a398-73d59db9e399.

It's behind a paywall. If the link is blocked, google -- ft in charts has us shale peaked.

For now, all I will say is this: what was the point of the article? By the way, suggesting that the Brits don't understand the US shale revolution, there are suggestions that Reuters oil analyst John Kemp doesn't quite understand the US free market model. But that's another story for another day.

Timing is everything. Read the Financial Times article and then read the RBN Energy essay posted today (see below) -- it begins:

Lower-48 natural gas production is expected to surge 18 Bcf/d (25%) by 2022 to 90 Bcf/d, up from an average near 72 Bcf/d this year. Gas demand is also on the rise, mostly from exports. The U.S. is expected to add 8.0 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity in the next few years. 

Active rigs in the Bakken:

$52.05→	10/18/2017	10/18/2016	10/18/2015	10/18/2014	10/18/2013
Active Rigs	58	32	67	190	184

RBN Energy: prospects for export and power demand growth.

Lower-48 natural gas production is expected to surge 18 Bcf/d (25%) by 2022 to 90 Bcf/d, up from an average near 72 Bcf/d this year. Gas demand is also on the rise, mostly from exports. The U.S. is expected to add 8.0 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity in the next few years.

At the same time, there is ample new pipeline capacity available for gas deliveries to Mexico from Texas, with more on the way, and gas-fired power generation demand is also expected to increase steadily. Will all this new demand be enough to absorb the incremental supply, and what will be the timing of it? In today’s blog, we continue our five-year outlook series, this time with a focus on the demand side of the equation.

This is Part 2 of a breakdown of our five-year outlook for the U.S. natural gas supply and demand balance. We began the series with a look at production trends in Part 1, namely that producers this year are emerging from the recent period of low oil prices, tightening capex budgets and contracting volumes. Crude production is nearly back up to its peak of 9.6 MMb/d set in April 2015, and is likely to surpass it soon.

Similarly, Lower-48 dry gas production has been roaring back and approaching a record 75 Bcf/d, led by the Marcellus/Utica shale, as well as associated gas production in crude-focused regions, including the Permian and Oklahoma’s South Central Oklahoma Oil Province (SCOOP) and Sooner Trend Anadarko Canadian Kingfisher (STACK) shale plays.

Lawsuit reversed. I don't like the way the company was able to get the case reversed but at least it's a start.

Johnson & Johnson on Tuesday won the reversal of a $72 million verdict in favor of the family of a woman whose death from ovarian cancer they claimed stemmed from her use of the company’s talc-based products like Johnson’s Baby Powder.

The Missouri Court of Appeals, Eastern District said that given a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision that limited where injury lawsuits could be filed, the case over Alabama resident Jacqueline Fox’s death should not have been tried in St. Louis.