Tuesday, May 17, 2016

EIA's Monthly Drilling Productivity Report (May, 2016) Data Now Posted

Recommendation: disregard my notes completely and go to the linked sources directly.

EIA's monthly drilling productivity report for May now posted. Link here: http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/.

Bakken pdf here. Some data points:

Bakken region oil production for May, 2016: decreased by 31,000 bopd from April, 2016.
  • production change from legacy wells: a decrease of 55,000 bopd
  • production change from new wells: an increase of 24,000 bopd 
New-well oil production per rig, increased at all but one play*:
  • Niobrara, increased by 23 bbls to 915 bbls/day/new well
  • Eagle Ford, increased by 23 bbls to 994 bbls/day/new well
  • Bakken, increased by 17 bbls to 832 bbls/day/new well
  • Permian, increased by 13 bbls to 493 bbls/day/new well
*This is from the chart. A screen-shot of this chart is below. Note that the chart shows "June 2016" data and does not say this is "estimated." The PDF has a completely different number. The pdf says the April, 2016, monthly addition from one average rig was 757 bbls whereas the May, 2016, monthly addition from one average rig was 767 bbls.

Tuesday, May 17, 2016

When something happens overnight with no explanation, one needs to start following the dots. The overnight event? The back-up in TSA lines. Literally, the story popped up overnight and stories coming out of the terminals suggest the TSA agents are standing around, joking, no sense of urgency. So, let's back track this:
Just in time for presidential election this November ← reports of work slowdown first surfaced in Chicago's Midway ← find cities with strong union support; home of community organizers ← TSA work to rule ← how to get TSA attention, media coverage? ← how about 4,000 more TSA agents? ← which unions, where? ← expand unions ← more voters needed, especially in swing states like Illinois ← need expanded voting blocs in time for November election
Active rigs:


5/17/201605/17/201505/17/201405/17/201305/17/2012
Active Rigs2883190189211

RBN Energy: Alberta's oil sands after the wildfires.

Saudi Arabia: CNBC reports an Energy Aspects analysis of Saudi Arabia's plans for increased oil production. For the archives.

US shale production: US shale output to drop for eighth consecutive month, EIA -- Reuters. U.S. shale oil output is expected to fall in June for the eighth consecutive month.
Total output is expected to fall by nearly 113,000 bpd to 4.85 million bpd, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) drilling productivity report released on Monday.

Bakken production from North Dakota is forecast to fall 27,000 bpd, while production from the Eagle Ford formation is expected to drop 58,000 bpd. Production from the Permian Basin in West Texas is expected to drop 10,000 bpd, according to the data, representing its second consecutive monthly decline. 
Saudi Arabia not mentioned. What's up? Bloomberg/Rigzone is reporting:
Algeria will supply oil and other energy products to Jordan for the first time under a memorandum of understanding signed on Monday, as the OPEC member seeks to diversify sales after years of stagnating crude production.
Sense of energy urgency in Japan. Bloomberg/Rigzone is reporting:
Energy companies in Japan, a country almost entirely reliant on fossil fuel imports, are slashing investments by more than one-third following the collapse in commodity prices, increasing pressure on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government to supplement exploration budgets. Spending will plunge 37 percent to about 1.2 trillion yen ($11 billion) in the year to March, the country’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry forecast in a report Tuesday.

The drop, just one slice of cuts globally, adds urgency to the government’s plans to sustain investment by the country’s explorers and accelerate efforts to get 40 percent of its oil and gas from domestic firms. The world’s biggest consumer of liquefied natural gas and fourth-largest crude buyer relies on imports for 94 percent of its primary energy supply, according to the country’s Federation of Electric Power Companies.
Japan may allocate 3 trillion yen over the next five years to help develop large-scale oil and gas developments with state-run Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp. investing in projects, the Nikkei newspaper reported last month.
Hoax. Most of us here in Texas knew this was a hoax when it was first reported. Glad to see The New York Times picked up the story:
The case of the chocolate cake slur, it seems, was simply a hoax.
An openly gay Texas pastor who had accused Whole Foods of defacing his cake with an anti-gay slur dropped his lawsuit against the grocery chain on Monday, issuing an apology that said he was wrong to “perpetuate this story.”
“The company did nothing wrong,” the pastor, Jordan Brown, said in a statement. “I was wrong to pursue this matter and use the media to perpetuate this story.”
He also apologized to the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender community “for diverting attention from real issues.”
Whole Foods had forcefully rejected the accusations by Mr. Brown, 31, who claimed that he had bought a frosted cake from a store in Austin, TX, and asked that the words “Love Wins” be written in icing on top — only to discover while driving away that a slur had been added.
Mr. Brown’s apology represented a remarkable about-face from his remarks last month, delivered at a news conference alongside his lawyer, during which he choked back tears as he told the story.
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Headlines From Today's WSJ

Maybe I will get to these later, maybe not. Doesn't matter. 
  • The Canadian fire isn't over: another 8,000 oil-sands workers evacuated when wind shifted.
  • Home Depot boosts guidance on strong same-store sales.
  • American farmers face oversupply of cheese, meat -- pushing down prices.
  • Girls beat boys in US test of technology literacy.
  • Scotch whisky exports stabilize, with modest decline in 2015.
  • Video: worth a watch -- world's largest cruise ship makes maiden voyage; Southampton, England, to France; the inaugural voyage to Barcelona; this thing is huge; words can't describe it
  • Getting a lot of press: Warren Buffett's investment in Apple (technically it was the "heirs" that made the investment, not Warren -- $1 billion
  • Tiger Woods' golf demonstration does not go as planned; hits three shots into water at Congressional. Link here.  This was a par 3 tenth hole, perhaps one of the easiest holes for pros.  This was a "trial run, a demonstration" -- not part of a tournament.
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Detroit Public Schools

From The Los Angeles Times.

Look at the numbers coming out of Detroit public school system:
  • 2002 - 2003: 164,496 students
  • 2015 - 2016: 47,000
K-12 students overall in Detroit: public, private, charter:
  • 2002: 201,774
  • 2012: 119,758
Charter schools
  • publicly funded
  • privately run
  • scaled up rapidly in last decade
2011: Education Achievement Authority
  • separate entity aimed to improve Detroit's worse schools
  • now with 6,000 students
2009: Detroit public schools put under control of state-appointed manager
  • manager of the state-appointed emergency manager of the Detroit public school district: the same guy who just resigned over his involvement in the Flint water crisis
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Answer To Hollywood's Sexism?

The [London] Times: Susan Sarandon thinking of directing porn.
Female directors make sex on screen more interesting, Susan Sarandon has claimed, as she sets her sights on making the pornography industry more acceptable to women.
The Oscar-winning actress said that female directors were less embarrassed about exploring the reason people have sex and “what the scene is supposed to tell you about these people”.
Sarandon was speaking at the Cannes Film Festival, which has often been overshadowed by accusations of sexism. There is annual criticism of the low number of female directors, and last year it emerged that festival organisers demanded that women attending red-carpet events had to wear.
A quick nexus search on the blog reveals some interesting dots that connect: Apple, Blu-Ray, Paglia, Mulholland Drive, Rocky Horror Picture Show.

Later, February 6, 2019: Bree Mills over at The Daily Beast. Ready to go "mainstream" with porn.  A name to watch.

Monday, May 16, 2016

Nothing About The Bakken; Simply ... May 16, 2016

Stuttering Mess
 
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If you came here looking for the Bakken, scroll down or go to the sidebar at the right.

I've been watching Pannebaker's 1968 Monterey Pop Festival DVD.

On any given night, I might pick a different "act" to call the "best." Tonight it happens to be Otis Redding's "I've Been Loving You Too Long." Wow.

And then I read the comments. Had it not been for the blog I would not have known about the Swampers. I've long forgotten who alerted me to the Swampers but whoever it was, a huge "thank you."

I have about a dozen music DVDs; they are the best of the best. And one of them is of Muscle Shoals; I never would have known of Muscle Shoals had I not blogged about Sam Phillips. Someone saw the post and said if I enjoyed the Sam Phillips DVD, I would love Muscle Shoals. That was so true; it became one of my favorites. Tonight, when I went to YouTube to see Otis Redding, someone said he did most of his good stuff with the Swampers. Incredible. It comes full circle.

So, there you have it. I could quit now, but I'm in the mood to let a stream of consciousness take over.

Otis Redding

I had a close friend some time ago. She said it best: "No, I don't think about suicide. But often I wish I could just fall asleep and not wake up again." Having been so lucky to have experienced the '60's I often think that if I fell asleep and never woke up, at least I saw the '60's. If that makes sense. It helps me put things into perspective.

Stand By Me, Ben E King

I see oil futures this evening have oil over $48 (WTI).

Can you believe this, OKC Thunder stuns Golden State Warriors, 108 - 102, at Sacramento? Wow.

Someone suggested it was time for another road trip; I agree. But I can't leave Sophia.

These are called "first world problems":
The [Baltimore] Ravens had "a five-minute period on May 6 [2015] when rookies and first-year players suited up in pads during a non-contact punt protection drill.

That's against the rules and the NFL will investigate.
According to Hensley's story, the Ravens thought rookie minicamps had different rules than regular OTA practices (so .... they've been violating the CBA for five years?) and pulled the players off the field after Ravens union rep Ben Watson offered some clarification.
If it was just five minutes, that's very easy to confirm because all practices are filmed. But it's still impossible to believe the Ravens had no idea that rookie minicamp wasn't under the same rules about padded practices as the rest of the OTA work.
It's not a new coaching staff and it's not a new rule, either. Maybe it's not a coincidence it happened with rookies who might not know any better. It might have only been five minutes, and maybe it was an honest mistake, but it'll be easy for the NFL to determine if the Ravens broke a longstanding rule. That five minutes could end up being pretty costly.
 And I thought "deflategate" was blown out of proportion. 

Obviously we're not going anywhere with this tonight. See you all tomorrow.

Update On A Few DUCs That Have Been Completed (1Q15, 2Q15) -- May 16, 2016

Since the last update one month ago, these three 1Q15 DUCs have been reported as completed:
  • 25854, 3,098, Statoil, Skarson 1-12 2TFH, Banks, t4/16; cum --
  • 25855, 3,115, Statoil, Skarston 1-12 3TFH, Banks, t4/16; cum --
  • 25857, 4,545, Statoil, Skarston 1-12 4H, Banks, t4/16; cum 4K after 4 days;
Since the last update (unsure when that was), these 2Q15 DUCs have been reported as completed:
  • 30193, 687, XTO, Evelyn 31X-3C, Lindahl, t3/17; cum 10K only 18 days in 3/16;
  • 30194, 352, XTO, Evelyn 31X-3GXH, Lindahl, t315; cum 1K after 4 days;
  • 30196, 231, XTO, Evelyn 31X-3H, Lindahl, t3/16; cum 7K; only 10 days in 3/16;
  • 30195, 686, XTO, Evelyn 31X-3D, Lindahl, 3/16; cum 4K only 13 days in 3/16;
  • 29968, 819, XTO, Odegaard State 31X-16C, Midway, t4/16; cum --
  • 29969, 644, XTO, Odegaard State 31X-16BXC, Midway, t3/16; cum -- only 2 days on line;
  • 28079, IA/689, Oasis, Helling Trust Federal 5494 42-22 12T2, Alkali Creek, t12/15; cum 4K after 8 days and then taken off-line;
  • 29564, 3,583, Statoil, Skarston 1-12 XE 1H, Banks, t3/16; cum 14K after 6 days;
Since the last update (unsure when that was), these 3Q15 DUCs have been reported as completed:
30370, 698,
30372, 413,
30859, 156,
30651, IA, produced 3 days 2/16;
30669, 10,
30670, 320,
30173, drl --> SI/NC,
29448, 1,986,
30535, IA, produced a bit, but off-line immediately
30757, 81,
30758, 396,
29752, drl - 233,
30257, 2,110,
30420, 135,
30256, 1,617,
29972, 1,643,
29973, 3,702,
29974, 380,
30456, 1,558,
29563, 4,278,
  
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Pool Girl

Pool_Girl_May_16_2016

Enerplus Reports A Nice Bakken Well -- May 17, 2016

Active rigs:


5/16/201605/16/201505/16/201405/16/201305/16/2012
Active Rigs2883190190211

Wells coming off confidential list Tuesday:
  • 24963, 1,936, Enerplus, Banjo 149-94-02B-01H- TF, Mandaree, t11/15; cum 124K 3/16;
  • 29132, SI/NC, Hess, BW-Erler-149-99-1522H-5, Cherry Creek, no production data,
  • 30622, see below/SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Aldag 4-36-35-164N-100W, West Ambrose, producing,
  • 31202, SI/NC, XTO, Kaye Federal 13X-3C,  Lost Bridge, no production data,
  • 31880, drl, CRL, Corsican Federal 7-15H, Sanish, no production data,
Kaiser-Francis Oil renewed one permit, a Torino permit in Mountrail County.

No new permits.

And that's all there was.
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30622, see above, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Aldag 4-36-35-164N-100W, West Ambrose:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-201684613900
2-2016123080
1-201640860

24963, see above, Enerplus, Banjo 149-94-02B-01H- TF, Mandaree:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20162464820820
2-20162291822384
1-20162548020369
12-20153501120369
11-2015152726262

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Channeling Jim Carrey

Notice at the very beginning she abruptly jumps from "herself" to her "acting/posing":

MakingFaces_May_16_2016