Monday, February 1, 2016 -- Minimal Blogging This Morning; Off The Net For Now

New Venezuela US imports graph posted at an earlier link. 

Dominion Resources to buy Questar: link here.  Data points:

• $4.4 billion in cash
• 27,500 miles in gas distribution pipeline
• 3,400 miles of gas transmission pipeline
• 56 billion cubic feet of working gas storage
• will operate an additional 15,500 miles of NG transmission, gathering, and storage pipelines
• 24,300 MW of power generation
• combined: 2.5 million electric utility customers, 2.3 million gas utility customers in 7 states
• $25/share; a premium of nearly 23% to Questar's Friday close
• other recent deal for comparison: Duke to buy Piedmont, $4.9 billion, announced last October
• other recent deal for comparison: Southern Co to buy AGL resources, $8 billion, announced last August

Active rigs:

	2/1/2016	02/01/2015	02/01/2014	02/01/2013	02/01/2012
Active Rigs	45	146	192	187	203

RBN Energy: LNG —A Market in Turmoil Moves to Right Itself.

Vertical wells in the Bakken over at Seeking Alpha.  This is an interesting story, perhaps, to tell us a bit about the Bakken, but I believe it's pretty much a non-story in the big scheme of things. If I don't forget I will come back to this story. At the story, some of the comments are completely off-base/wrong; other comments are very good.

Saudi oil. WSJ, Heard on the Street: "Oil-Price Poker: Why Saudi Won't Fold 'Em." Nice graphic at the link.

The Shiite powerhouse is ramping up production following the lifting of nuclear sanctions. And its export surge is occurring against the backdrop of ongoing proxy wars in Syria and Yemen. Those make it difficult for Sunni champion Saudi Arabia to take the lead with output cuts.

Russia, meanwhile, is pumping the most crude ever, hitting a post-Soviet Union peak. But it may have difficulty maintaining today’s pace given a lack of investment in its aging Siberian fields. The chief executive of Russian oil giant Lukoil predicted that Russian output would drop in 2016 for the first time in several years.

And then there is the additional wrinkle that Russia is actively on Iran’s side in Syria. For those reasons, not only have occasional statements from Russia about nonexistent agreements been something of a bluff, so too might be the country’s willingness to voluntarily curb its own output.

In other words, Russia is holding weak cards and the Saudis know it.

For now, politics, if not economics, suggests the Saudis will remain all-in. That alone could keep a lid on an immediate oil-price recovery.

Someone At The New York Times Must Be Reading This Blog -- January 31, 2016

Just a couple of days ago I asked: with a global glut of oil and gasoline that isn't going to end any time soon, and the price of oil / gasoline at record lows, "tell me again why we're adding ethanol to gasoline? Oh, that's right. The first presidential "primary" is held in Iowa." 

Someone at The New York Times must have been reading the blog, because tonight the newspaper has this story/headline:  Ethanol Mandate, a Boon to Iowa Alone, Faces Rising Resistance. LOL. What a coincidence!

From the story:

And now a powerful coalition including oil companies, environmentalists, grocery manufacturers, livestock farmers and humanitarian advocates is pushing Congress to weaken or repeal the mandate. As soon as this week, the Senate could vote on a measure to roll back the Renewable Fuel Standard, just days after the Iowa caucuses close and the issue largely goes to rest for another four years.

Even here, as Iowa urbanizes and diversifies, ethanol may be losing its once-powerful hold, some political consultants say. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, one of the Republican front-runners in Iowa, has called for an end to subsidies for all forms of energy, as well as a five-year phasing out of the renewable fuel mandate that created the ethanol economy here.

That position drew an unusual repudiation from Iowa’s governor, Terry E. Branstad, a Republican who has not endorsed any candidate. “It would be a big mistake for Iowa to support him,” Mr. Branstad told reporters at a forum held by the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association.

At the same forum, the other front-runner, Donald J. Trump, said he was “100 percent” behind the ethanol mandate and would even support increasing it further.

At least now, on this single wedge issue I know who I support. LOL. 

No New Permits Were Issued In North Dakota On The Last Business Day Of January, 2016

No new permits were recorded on the last full business day of January, 2016.

Four (4) Whiting P Earl Rennerfeldt wells were approved for "tight hole" status. The Rennerfeldt wells are in Stockyard Creek, oil field, Williams County, east of Williston.

Whiting canceled three (3) permits, including:

• one Schilke permit in McKenzie County,
• two Beaver Creek State permits in Golden Valley County

Twenty (20) permits were renewed, including:

• EOG, 9: six (6) Sidonia permits in McKenzie County; three (3) Liberty LR permits in Mountrail County
• QEP, 5, all Tipi V permits in Mountrail County; we talked about the Tipi V wells in Spotted Horn oil field just a couple of days ago; 
• Sinclair Oil and Gas, 2, both Ersa Federal permits in McKenzie County
• Whiting, 2, both Charging Eagle permits in Dunn County
• Emerald Oil, 2, a Harry Dunne permit in Stark County, and a Robert The Bruce permit in McKenzie County (just for the fun of it, readers may want to google "Harry Dunne")

There was one (1) producing well reported as completed:

• 29795, 1,283, BR, Morgan 24-21TFH, Pershing, in the target 94% of the time; above the drilling target 6% of the time; low background, and minimal flare; API 33-053-06403; FracFocus shows this well fracked 11/9-11/15, but no frack data at the well file report yet; according to FracFocus, 1.728 million gallons of water; back-of-envelope - 14,424,764 pounds of water; water accounted for 90.57% of total fracking fluid; total fracking weight, 15,926,344 lbs; sand was 6.28% of total weight or 1 million lbs; another 3.4% (or about 500,000 lbs) of corundum/mullite was used; if 30 stages, that's only about 50,000 lbs/stage; t1/16; cum 818 bbls in 7 days; the back-of-the envelope calculations are probably close based on data from the sister well (#29797):
• 29797, 2,084, BR, Morgan 24-21MBH, t12/15 cum -- ; 2.549 million lbs of water; the water represented 83% of the fracking fluid weight; the amount of sand was 11% of the total weight; and corundum/mullite represented 6% of the total fracking fluid weight; according to the sundry form, this sister well was fracked with 4 million lbs of sand, in 35 stages.
  

Triangle USA temporarily abandoned four wells, two State wells in Williams County and two Larsen wells, also in Williams County. 

The February, 2016, NDIC Hearing Dockets Agenda

Highlights were posted earlier; this is the full summary of the agenda.

I track the dockets here.

The NDIC index for the agendas for the hearing dockets is here.

For newbies: during the boom, there were usually two to three days of hearing, and the agenda for each day was as many as 20 pages long. The February, 2016, hearings: two days; 7 pages of agenda for each day, and many of them are continued cases. It is very, very quiet with regard to the dockets right now. However, with the transfer of wells among existing and new operators is probably taking a lot of NDIC human resources to complete.

I remain impressed with all parties involved with the oil and gas industry in the great state of North Dakota.

Wednesday, February 24, 2016: seven pages

• 24822, NDIC, bond consideration prior to transfer of the Wabek Madison unit to a new operator
• 24823, NDIC, bond consideration prior to transfer of the Plaza Madison unit to a new operator
• 24824, BR, Fancy Buttes-Bakken, redefine field limits, McKenzie
• 24825, Whiting, Twin Buttes-Bakken, establish a 2560-acre unit; 1+ wells, Dunn County
• 24826, Whiting, Twin Buttes-Bakken, to establish a 5120-acre spacing unit, one or more wells; Dunn County 
• 24827, Whiting, Twin Buttes-Bakken, extend the boundaries, to establish a 1280-acre unit; 1+ wells, Dunn County 
• 24828, Whiting, Twin Buttes-Bakken, extend the boundaries, establish a 1280-acre unit, 1+ wells, Dunn County
• 24829, Cornerstone Natural Resources, Customs-Bakken, redefine field limits; Burke County
• 24830, Cornerstone Natural Resources, Pickett-Bakken, redefine field limits, Burke County
• 24831, Hess, Cherry Creek-Bakken, proper spacing, redefine field limits, McKenzie County
• 24832, Hess, Alger-Bakken, waiver for location of a specific well, Mountrail
• 24833, Hess, Elm Tree-Bakken; establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 1 well; authorize 12 wells on a 1280-acre unit; McKenzie 
• 24834, Hess, Elm Tree-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 1 well, McKenzie
• 24835, MRO, Lost Bridge-Bakken, establish a 2560-acre unit; 1 well, Dunn
• 24836, MRO, Lost Bridge-Bakken, establish a 3840-acre unit, 1 well, Dunn
• 24837, MRO, McGregory Buttes-Bakken, 21 wells on a 2560-acre unit, 14/15/22/23-147-94; establish a 2560-acre unit, 15/16/21/22 and a bit more, 1 well; Dunn
• 24838, NDIC, review the TA status of Petro Harvester #11649, Flaxton Field, Burke County 
• 24839, Hess, pooling
• 24840, Hess, pooling,
• 24841, Hess, pooling,
• 24842, Hess, pooling,
• 24843, Hess, pooling
• 24844, Hess, pooling,
• 24845, Hess, pooling,
• 24846, Hess, pooling,
• 24847, Hess, pooling,
• 24848, Hess, pooling,
• 24849, Hess, pooling,
• 24850, Hess, pooling,
• 24851, Hess, pooling,
• 24852, Hess, pooling,
• 24853, Hess, commingling,
• 24854, Hess, commingling,
• 24855, Hess, commingling,
• 24856, MRO, Reunion Bay-Bakken, 9 wells on a 1280-acre unit; McKenzie, Mountrail counties
• 24857, MRO, Lost Bridge-Bakken, 18 wells on a 2560-acre unit, 1/12/13/24-148-96; Dunn County 
• 24858, QEP, poolng,
• 24859, QEP, pooling, 
• 24860, QEP, pooling, 
• 24861, Petro-Hunt, pooilng
• 24862, Gadeco, LLC, Epping-Bakken, 12 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, 25/36-155-99; Williams County

Thursday, February 25, 2016: seven pages

• 24863, Hunt, Zahl-Bakken, proper spacing, Williams
• 24864, Triangle, Rawson-Bakken waiver for a specific well, McKenzie
• 24865, CLR, Elm Tree-Bakken, i) establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, 4/5/8/9/16/17-153-94; 2 wells; ii) establish two overlapping 5120-acre units, 3/4/9/10/15/16/21/22-153-94, 3 wells; and, iii) establish an overlapping 5120-acre unit, 13/14/23/24/25/26/35/36-153-94, 4 wells; McKenzie, Mountrail 
• 24866, CLR, Elm Tree-Bakken, field rules putting wells closer to spacing unit lines, McKenzie
• 24867, CLR, Alkali Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 1 well, Mountrail, McKenzie 
• 24868, NDIC, Leaf Mountain-Bakken, specific well spacing, Burke County
• 24869, Denbury Onshore, Eland-Lodgepole, waiver for specific well, Stark County
• 24870, NDIC, Flatland Management, treating plant, McKenzie
• 24871, NDIC, IHD Liquids Management, treating plant, McKenzie
• 24872, NDIC, ICAN Technology, treating plant, McKenzie
• 24873, Sinclair Oil & Gas, pooling,
• 24874, Sinclair Oil & Gas, pooling, 
• 24875, Newfield, pooling,
• 24876, CLR, pooling,
• 24877, CLR, pooling,
• 24878, CLR, pooling,
• 24879, CLR, pooling,
• 24880, CLR, pooling,
• 24881, CLR, Elm Tree-Bakken, 22 wells on an existing overlapping 2560-acre unit, 14/23/26/35-153-94, McKenzie
• 24882, XTO, commingling,
• 24883, XTO, commingling,
• 24884, XTO, commingling,
• 24885, XTO, commingling,
• 24886, XTO, commingling,
• 24887, XTO, commingling,
• 24888, XTO, commingling,
• 24889, Secure Energy Services, SWD well, McKenzie
• 24890, Bosque Disposal Systems, SWD, McKenzie

Halcon, CLR Will Each Report A Nice Bakken Well Monday -- January 31, 2016

Reporting tomorrow:

• Cardinal Health, $1.26 forecast; beats forecast at $1.30; revenue up 23%; 
• Tesoro, $2.08 forecast after market close, from 4Q14 (one year ago): TSO ($0.31):  $1.13 per share. Earnings, adjusted to account for discontinued operations and non-recurring costs, came to $1.46 per share; increased its quarterly dividend by 40% to 42.5 cents a share.

Wells coming off confidential list over the weekend, Monday:

Monday, February 1, 2016

• 29534, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Sorenson b-155-94-3526H-3, Alkali Creek, no production data,

Sunday, January 31, 2016

• 29453, 219, Triangle USA, Little Muddy 10TFH, Williston, t8/15; cum 22K 11/15;

Saturday, January 30, 2016

• 28297, 2,073, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-94-19D-18-11H, Four Bears, t8/15; cum 85K 12/15; only 2 days in 12/15;
• 29670, 1,195, CLR, Thronson Federal 7-21H, Alkali Creek, t8/15; cum 82K 12/15;
• 31206, SI/NC, EOG, Van Hook 46-3625H, Parshall, no production data,
• 31309, SI/NC, EOG, Wayzetta 98-3019H, Parshall, no production data,
• 31401, 1,848, BR, CCU Golden Creek 34-23 TFH, Corral Creek, t12/15; cum 5K 12/15; only 1 day in 12/15; only 14 days in 11/15;

************************************

 31401, see below, BR, CCU Golden Creek 34-23 TFH,  Corral Creek:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2015	1279	0

29670, see above, CLR, Thronson Federal 7-21H, Alkali Creek:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2015	11033	8512
10-2015	15840	24605
9-2015	17935	27922
8-2015	24216	37093
7-2015	624	1004

 28297, see above, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-94-19D-18-11H, Four Bears:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2015	817	1033
11-2015	16784	21889
10-2015	17423	22911
9-2015	10738	9202
8-2015	38254	0
7-2015	282	0

29453, see above, Triangle USA, Little Muddy 10TFH, Williston:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2015	5088	7044
10-2015	6282	8441
9-2015	7244	6006
8-2015	3254	4928
7-2015	15	0

Enjoying her new shoes and enjoying 70-degree weather in north Texas.