Getting Back Into The Swing Of Things -- August 14, 2014

Some data points before I get back into the swing of things:

• first time unemployment claims surge
• President Obama on track to have more golf outings than Tiger
• "the world is exploding all over the place" -- SecDef Hagel
• plans to "cut" the military appear to be on track
• "boots on ground" back in Iraq -- Special Forces and US Marines on the mountain
• price of WTI down but holding its own
• Saudi to flood the market with oil?
• Italy back in recession
• early reports that Germany may swing into recession with -0.2% growth; how are those sanctions working out?
• huge IPs being reported in the Bakken

*****************************************

Unemployment Claims

• last week's 289,000 revised upward to 290,00
• consensus for this week: 289,000
• actual: surged to 311,000
• mainstream media analysis: everything on track; economy rose; jobless claims continue to close to pre-recession levels;
• four-week average, a less volatile measure, only jumped 2,000, to 295,750
• and Mr Obama is still on vacation

Even The Los Angeles Times is surprised, their headline: jobless claims take surprising jump to 6-week high. (That headline was on the front page of the day's news summary; the headline at the story: "Jobless Claims Rise to 6-Week High, But Remain Relatively Low." I can't make this stuff up. Relatively? UC Irvine? Really?

Cisco will cut 6,000 jobs (8% of workforce).

*****************************************

Global Economy

first of all, sanctions never work

Italy is in recession

Germany at risk of pulling all of Europe back into recession -- Business Insider

Germany close to recession as ECB admits recovery is weak -- The (London) Telegraph

*****************************************

Read My Lips

Four score and seven years ago ... : Abraham Lincoln

No new taxes: George Bush I

Brownie, you're doing a heckuva job: George Bush II

I will not send combat troops back into Iraq; that chapter is over: Baraq

*****************************************

Old Code-Words

Special Forces, US Marines: military advisers

*****************************************

Old Code-Words

Small regional wars where US military advisers are sent: "projects" -- Baraq Obama as quoted by NBC News.

Back in Air War College, I was introduced to "small regional conflicts (SRC)" and "military operations other than war (MOOTW)" but never "projects."

*****************************************

US Golfers Ranking: Update

Tiger Woods drops out of top 5

President Baraq O'Bama moves into top 20  

Op-ed in The Washington Times

*****************************************

Baraq O'Bama To Interrupt Martha Vineyard Vacation

There are reports that President O'Bama will return to Wasshington, DC, this weeken. No one knows why. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this out: Bill Clinton knows. From a very, very unreliable source. Don't quote me on this.

*****************************************

And Through All of This, For Some, There's A Kind of A Hush All Over the World 

There's A Kind of Hush, Herman's Hermits

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Weekend, Monday -- Posted August 10, 2014

I may not post much today; I'm in the Grand Canyon area and not sure how long I will be off the net. 

Active rigs:

	8/11/2014	08/11/2013	08/11/2012	08/11/2011	08/11/2010
Active Rigs	195	184	199	192	143

RBN Energy: storage problem in Houston. 

Data below will have to wait to be updated; the wi-fi here at McDonald's is not fast enough to load anything in a reasonable amount of time. 

Monday, August 11, 2014
21374, conf, Statoil, Barstad 23-14 4TFH, Alger, no production data,
26149, conf, WPX, Alfred Old Dog 30-31HC,  Reunion Bay, producing,
26396, conf, CLR, Limousin 6-3H2, Sanish, no production data,
26449, conf, Newfield, Hovland 150-99-26-35-3H, South Tobacco Garden, producing, a nice well,
26575, conf, MRO, Cheetah USA 14-16TFH, Four Bears, producing, a huge well,
27133, conf, Hess, SC-Tom-2560-153-98-1514-2223H-1, Truax, no production data,
27153, conf, BR, Arches 34-35MBH, Keene, no production data,
27454, conf, CLR, Hartman 6-28H2, Chimney Butte, no production data,

Sunday, August 10, 2014
26148, conf, WPX, Alfred Old Dog 30-31HY, Reunion Bay, producing,
27270, conf, WPX, Glenn Fox 13-24HA, Van Hook, producing,
27294, conf, Hess, EN-Ortloff-156-94-2635H-7, Big Butte, no production data,
27556, conf, XTO, Kaye Federal 43X-4B, Lost Bridge, no production data,

Saturday, August 9, 2014
26095, conf, American Eagle, La Plata State 2-16-163-101, Colgan, producing,
26448, conf, Newfield, Hovland 150-99-26-35-2H, South Tobacco Garden, producing, albeit not much, 
26605, conf, Newfield, Hoffmann 149-98-11-2-2H, Pembroke, a big well,
27154, conf, BR, Arches 34-35TFH, Keene, no production data,
27210, conf, Legacy, Legacy Et Al Berge 16-36 2H, North Souris, a Spearfish well, producing,
27340, conf, CLR, Vachal 6-27H1, Alkali Creek, no production data,
27455, conf, CLR, Hartman 7-28H3, Chimney Butte, no production data,

The two CLR Hartman wells are increased density pilot project wells.

*****************************

As soon as I read that a new study concluded the Keystone XL will lower the price of oil by ... drum roll ... $3/bbl and that would .... drum roll ... create a huge increase in the consumption of oil, I knew the study was irrelevant and ... frankly, idiotic. The price of WTI dropped from $104 to $97 in the past few weeks (well more than $3/bbl) and the drop in price had nothing to do with pipelines.

And, just for argument's sake: dropping the price of oil is now a "bad" thing. Okay.

Be that as it may, the oil sands will be developed  and if the Americans don't want it/buy it, the Chinese will. More than enough pipeline and rail to transport Canadian oil exists or will exist over the next few years with/without the Keystone.

Random Update Of EOG's Wayzetta Wells -- August 10, 2014

Updates

Later, 10:39 a.m. PDT: I have also updated the production numbers for all of the wells that EOG permitted/drilled in 2007.  At that link, scroll to the very, very bottom.

Original Post

All of the EOG Wayzetta wells have been updated over at the Parshall oil field page. For those not familiar with the Parshall oil field, or the EOG Austin wells, or the EOG Wayzetta wells, the update is quite staggering.

As you scroll through the data, keep in mind some of these data points:

• most of the early EOG Parshall oil field wells were short laterals
• many of the new EOG Parshall oil field wells will be long laterals (the names of the well will identify the long laterals)
• "XX" wells are middle Bakken wells (the first two digits following "Wayzetta")
• "XXX" wells are Three Forks wells (the first three digits following "Wayzetta")
• to the best of my knowledge, EOG has not posted results of any deeper Three Forks wells than the upper Three Forks (TF1)
• most of the Wayzetta wells will be candidates for the "monster well" list
• EOG is using fracks of 10 million lbs and more

In addition, over the next few months, EOG is going to report a large number of additional incredible Wayzetta wells. For example, just one such well that will soon be reported. This one is still on DRL status but has produced 124,000 bbls of oil in less than 3 months:

NDIC File No: 26212     API No: 33-061-02668-00-00
Well Type: OG     Well Status: DRL     Status Date: 9/2/2013     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: NWSW 14-153-90     Footages: 2215 FSL 330 FWL     Latitude: 48.072570     Longitude: -102.222490
Current Operator: EOG RESOURCES, INC.
Current Well Name: WAYZETTA 40-1424H
Elevation(s): 2105 GL     Total Depth:       Field: PARSHALL
Spud Date(s):  9/2/2013
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Status: DRL     Date: 9/2/2013
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 124041     Cum MCF Gas: 54195     Cum Water: 60990

Monthly Production Data

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2014	30	35804	35834	16339	15638	9649	5845
BAKKEN	5-2014	27	37613	38013	18757	17329	6638	10566
BAKKEN	4-2014	20	33261	32807	14181	16314	5305	10919
BAKKEN	3-2014	9	17363	16891	11713	4914	0	4869

The Piceance Basin -- Western Colorado

Updates

September 19, 2016: Encana exits the Piceance. 

September 1, 2016: unimportant story in big scheme of things, but helps me with picture of the Piceance. Apparently WPX drilled a horizontal "through" Encana property to get to WXP mineral acres. WPX says they are not targeting any Encana oil. Encana does not comment on that. Encana's beef, calling this a "trespass well": Encana cannot drill its own well in the area because of 300-foot setback rules. Went to court in June, 2016; no update found. My hunch: ends "amicably." Court will waive 300-foot setback if Encana provides reasonable "avoidance" plan in drilling new wells.

June 9, 2016: USGS revises estimate of technically recoverable natural gas in the Piceance Basin from less than 2 trillion cubic feet to 66 trillion cubic feet. 

September 23, 2015: random articles on the Piceance; most of the articles are a bit dated.

September 22, 2015: Questar susidiary announces $65 million, 80-natural-gas-well drilling program. 

October 9, 2014: WPX update on the Piceance. 

Original Post

 
A reader sent me an article this morning that reminded me that I haven't been keeping up with the Piceance Basin. I also noted that I don't have it linked at the sidebar at the right along with the other oil and gas plays in North America.

So, a placeholder for Piceance begins here.

First, before we get too excited about the Piceance: remember the Piceance in Colorado. The old joke around western Colorado goes like this: Oil shale is the fuel of the future…..and always will be.

I haven't followed this year's Democratic political debate in Colorado, but it's been the headline news for quite some time. I don't plan to follow Colorado politics either; time will tell whether the Piceance will be developed.

Some perspective: although some opine that the Bakken Pool in the Williston Basin (North Dakota only?) could be a 1-trillion-bbl reservoir, and the Leigh Price suggested as much as 500 billion bbls, the consensus is that it will ultimately come in lower than that. Be that as it may, what about the Piceance?

According to wiki:

Increasing demand for energy resources has spurred interest in energy alternatives such as oil shale. The Piceance Basin contains one of the thickest and richest oil shale deposits in the world and is the focus of most on-going oil shale research and development extraction projects in the U.S. The Piceance Basin has an estimated 1.525 trillion barrels of in-place oil shale resources.

A 1.5-trillion-bbl reservoir.

Wiki obtained that from a 2009 USGS re-assessment of the Basin:

Total in-place oil in the seventeen oil shale zones assessed is 1.525 trillion barrels or about 50 percent larger than the previous in-place assessment of about one trillion barrels.

Almost all of this increase is due to (1) new areas being assessed that had too little data to assess in the previous assessment, and (2) new intervals being assessed that were not assessed previously. Much of this previously unassessed resource is of low grade.

The richest resources are in townships 1 and 2 south, ranges 97 and 98 west with a combined total of nearly 286 billion barrels of oil in place.

I assume, just like the Bakken, there are too-many-too-follow/too-many-too-mention operators in the Piceance, but a quick search suggests Encana and WPX might be a couple of stories to follow in western Coloroda.

According to an Oil & Gas Journal article:

In the Piceance basin, Encana owns 869,000 net acres bounded roughly by Rangely, Grand Junction, Rifle, and Meeker, Colo. More than 70% of the lands are undeveloped.

(Rangely is the upper left-hand "dot" and Grand Junction is the lower left-hand "dot.")

The bad news for operators looking to target the Piceance: look at all that green. Might as well be "red." However, the good news is that I don't see any green in the area that Encana says it "owns."

Here is Encana's Piceance position from the OGJ article:

At its current pace, Encana has a 35-year inventory of drilling locations in the Williams Fork formation alone.

The company has built its Piceance net production to 440 MMcfd of gas in 2010 from 325 MMcfd in 2005, increasing flow every year except 2009, when pipeline capacity was insufficient to take all of its gas. Output grew at a compound rate of more than 30%/year from 2002 to 2008.

"Our capacity-reduced production from 2009 came back on line better than expected, and many of the Piceance wells that we've recently completed are performing well above expectations," Wojahn said.

Using what the company calls a "gas factory" approach, Encana has drilled as many as 52 wells from a single pad in the Piceance basin.

"I am proud to say that in just a few short years, the Piceance gas factory has progressed from the conceptual stage to full implementation…. Since 2005, Encana has reduced its drilling cycle times by as much as 65% in some areas of the Piceance basin."

Encana is expanding the use of its Piceance gas factory approach throughout the company's operations to gain efficiencies. Those include sharply reducing truck trips in the field, fewer pad-to-pad rig moves, shorter drilling and completion cycle time, and optimizing frac efficiency and production via gas lift.

Without giving details, Wojahn said Encana is diversifying its supplier base and is engaging industry players to develop fit for purpose completion equipment.

I don't follow the natural gas industry very closely, so it came as a surprise to read that Encana is #2, behind ExxonMobil, in natural gas production in North America, according to that same article.

Meanwhile, late last year, WPX announced it would form an MLP in the Piceance. 

Using the search app in the blogger app, one can easily find a number of Piceance/WPX stories.

Katie Ledecky Breaks Another Record -- August 9, 2014

Save for Bakken

************************

Katie Ledecky Breaks Another Record

I wasn't going to post this until I had a Bakken post but this is simply too exciting. Regular readers know the story of Katie Ledecky. AP via Yahoo!Sports is reporting:

IRVINE, Calif. (AP) — Katie Ledecky broke the world record in the 400-meter freestyle at the U.S. national championships Saturday night, becoming the first woman since Janet Evans to hold world marks in the 400, 800 and 1,500 freestyles at the same time.

This is the second time in less than 24 hours I have heard the name of Janet Evans.

The story continues:

The 17-year-old from Bethesda, Maryland, won in 3 minutes, 58.86 seconds. She bettered the old mark of 3:59.15 set by Italy's Federica Pellegrini at the 2009 world championships in Rome, when a raft of records were broken during the apex of the high-tech suit era.

Those suits were banned the following year, making world records harder to achieve.

One word: wow.

It was Ledecky's third win of the meet, having earlier claimed the 200 and 800 freestyles. She earned the chance to swim all three events at the Pan Pacific Championships in Australia this month. She will be a high school senior this fall, and later plans to attend Stanford.

Again: wow.

*****************************

A Note for the Granddaughters

A new book 

Every once in awhile one comes across a book that is simply the "cat's meow." For me, The Discovery of Middle Earth, Graham Robb, c. 2013, appears to be one such book. I have only begun taking notes now that I have read the first two chapters.

I happened to see it in an obscure location on the very top shelf -- almost out of my reach -- in the corner of the museum bookstore at the Getty Museum, Santa Monica, California, yesterday. I was simply looking for a new book to read; there were several possibilities but then I saw this one, and that ended the search. I was only going to buy one book and this would be the book.

I am only a few pages into the book but I can already tell I am really, really, going to enjoy this book for so many reasons.

The premise is this: while planning a cross-European bicycle riding route, the author claims to have discovered the Via Heraklean to be the Celtic backbone of Europe. I do not know if this is an original thought with this author, but early on he met with his editor/publisher and swore them to secrecy, when asking their opinion whether it was worth pursuing as a publishable book.

If that is the premise, I put this book among the handful of books that opens up an entirely new world for me:

• Mrs Dalloway, Virginia Woolf
• The Truth Will Out: Unmasking the Real Shakespeare, Brenda James
• Thh Discovery of Middle Earth, Graham Robb

*******************************

The Million-Dollar Man, Lana del Rey