Friday, April 11, 2014

Two Coal Plants Added To The Nation's Grid Accounted For 50% Of All Solar Added In 2013; Proof That Wind Won't Succeed Without Huge Government Subsidies/Tax Breaks

A picture is worth a thousand words. This graph is priceless:


According to the US government:
Natural gas-fired power plants accounted for just over 50% of new utility-scale generating capacity added in 2013. Solar provided nearly 22%, a jump up from less than 6% in 2012. Coal provided 11% and wind nearly 8%. Almost half of all capacity added in 2013 was located in California. In total, a little over 13,500 megawatts (MW) of new capacity was added in 2013, less than half the capacity added in 2012.
The small print has several story lines. Perhaps the biggest story line:
Two coal plants, both delayed projects that were originally scheduled to be completed in 2011-12, accounted for all of the coal capacity added in 2013. The Sandy Creek Energy Station in Texas is a 937 MW conventional steam coal plant that was badly damaged during testing in 2011 and required major repairs before becoming operational. The Edwardsport plant in Indiana is a 571 MW integrated gasification combined-cycle (IGCC) plant, one of only two of the many proposed IGCC projects that actually advanced into construction as natural gas prices dropped (the Kemper County IGCC project in Mississippi is still under construction).  This story is now tracked here.
Nah, this was bigger:
Wind capacity additions (1,032 MW) dropped sharply in 2013 to less than one-tenth of the capacity added in 2012 (12,885 MW). This was a widely expected result of the rush to complete wind projects in 2012 to qualify for the federal production tax credit.
Nah, this was bigger:
New coal activity in 2013 was onepointfive (1.5) times greater than new wind power -- 150% more.

Ohio Regulators Ban Fracking Due To Earthquake Link; No Jones Act Ships Available; One Page Short Of A Manuscript; One Fry Short Of A Happy Meal -- This About Says It All --

... incredibly pathetic....one almost feels sorry for the wicked witch of the west. Not.

The Weekly Standard is reporting:
Kathleen Sebelius had one final glitch on her way out the door. At her resignation celebration at the White House Rose Garden today, she was missing the final page from her prepared remarks. "Unfortunately, a page is missing," Sebelius said. The crowd laughed.
Sure.

Pretty much explains everything in the administration. One fry short of a happy meal.

Ding, Dong, The Witch Is Dead, The Wizard of Oz

A spokeswoman for Sen. Pat Roberts, a Republican from Sebelius' home state of Kansas, called the resignation "a prudent decision" given what she called the total failure of Obamacare implementation.

It's really too bad about the implementation of ObamaCare. It was such a good law.
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But Back To The Bakken

Oil is overflowing along the gulf. Nowhere to go; can't be exported. And yet WTI surges over $104 for no obvious reason. What gives?

Bloomberg is reporting:
Houston and the rest of the U.S. Gulf Coast have more crude oil than the region can handle.
Stockpiles in the region centered on Houston and stretching to New Mexico in the west and Alabama in the east rose to 202 million barrels in the week ended April 4, the most on record, Energy Information Administration data released yesterday show.
Storage tanks are filling as new pipelines carry light, sweet oil found in shale formations to the coast and U.S. law keeps companies from moving it out. Most crude exports are banned and the 13 ships that can legally move oil between U.S. ports are booked solid. The federal Jones Act restricts domestic seaborne trade to vessels owned, flagged and built in the U.S. and crewed by citizens.
“You can’t get all that light, sweet crude out, it’s all kind of piling up,” said Jeff McGee, the founder of Makai Marine Advisors LLC in Dallas, who previously led research at two shipbrokers and worked as a refinery planner. “You couldn’t find a spot Jones Act ship to save your life right now.” 
Regular readers of the blog know (from RBN Energy) that there is a shortage of Jones Act ships. One of my regular readers was not able to understand the Jones Act issue, though she claimed to have taken a maritime law course "years ago." LOL.

The president, of course, is completely caught unawares of the Jones Act unintended consequences. He continues to show incredible ineptness. Where's the energy secretary? Oh, that's right. He is probably looking for the missing page of Ms Sebelius resignation speech; he may need it yet.

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In Ohio, Fracking Is Moving Tectonic Plates

CNBC is reporting:
State regulators for the first time have linked earthquake activity in eastern Ohio to hydraulic fracturing, confirming the suspicions of activists pushing unsuccessfully for a drilling ban.
State Oil & Gas Chief Rick Simmers told The Associated Press on Friday that the state has halted drilling indefinitely at the site near Youngstown where five minor tremors occurred in March following investigative findings of a probable link to fracking.
A deep-injection well for fracking wastewater was tied to earthquakes in the region in 2012.
Simmers says Ohio will require sensitive seismic monitoring as a condition of all new drilling permits within three miles of a known fault or existing seismic activity of 2.0 or greater. Drilling will pause for evaluation with any tremor of 1.0 magnitude and will be halted if a link is found.
Makes the state of North Dakota look better and better every day.

Disclaimer: this site is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or anything you think you might have read here. For investment advice google George Soros, Jim Cramer, and Dennis Hartman. 

I assume banning fracking in some areas in Ohio will just about kill small operators in Ohio. Chesapeake, I assume, is in deep, deep do-do.

For Investors Only; Thank Goodness I Never Invested In BioTech -- Their Anthem -- I Hate Myself For Loving You ... Is Biotech The Next Casualty Of ObamaCare?

Updates

April 13, 2014: I am getting caught up with old stories / old e-mail -- my internet and e-mail service was interrupted recently due to issues beyond my control. I don't watch television, and I didn't see a reason why WTI was up to $104. Perhaps this was the reason: OPEC cuts production in March. It's quite a story.  Angola, down 167,000 bopd; Libya, down 100,000 bopd; Saudi Arabia, up 100,000 bopd. If the figures are accurate, it's almost a draw. Saudi fudges numbers, I assume, and the delta may have been even less, month-over-month. It still doesn't explain $104 WTI oil; Brent rose during the same time period. Bloomberg is reporting:
Angolan output dropped by 167,000 barrels a day to 1.52 million, the biggest decline for any member this month, the survey showed. Production tumbled because of maintenance at the Plutonio offshore field operated by BP Plc.
Libyan output dropped by 100,000 barrels a day to 250,000, the 10th decline in 12 months. The North African country’s production has fallen because of political protests and the seizure of ports by rebels. Libya pumped 1.59 million in January 2011 before the uprising that led to former leader Muammar Qaddafi’s ouster and death that year.
Original Post
 
... wow, might this not be the perfect moment for oil and gas investors?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If you want investment advice: George Soros, Warren Buffett, Jim Cramer, Dennis Gartman.

But I digress. As I was saying, might this not be the perfect moment for oil and gas investors?
  • the market swoons providing an opportunity for buying
  • it looks like money is moving from biotech sector to other sectors, perhaps the energy sector
  • WTI oil is now above $104
That caught me by surprise. WTI oil now above $104. What gives? The dollar, weakened, is holding.

On a day that the market continues to swoon, COP and CVX are up strong (XOM is down, but not by much and trading near its 52-week high).

And for all those biotech investors:

I Hate Myself For Loving You, Joan Jett & the Blackhearts

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The ObamaCare Trainwreck

First, as a reminder, it was the Democratic senator from a neighboring state who was the biggest proponent of the Affordable Care Act who now calls it a "trainwreck."

The ridiculous goal of 7 million enrollees (remember, there were 30 - 40 million uninsured, according to Barry and Hillary) was scaled back to 6 million enrollees.

It looks like that even the "more believable" figure of 4 million is incorrect. My hunch is that when the 2 million number was given to Barack, that was the last straw: he fired the wicked witch of the west.

2 million.

And based on recent survey out of North Dakota is looks like only 50% of "enrollees" will actually pay their first premium. It will be worse in most other states.

One has to wonder if biotech was caught up in the "trainwreck."

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Now, Back to WTI -- Surging -- Over $104

First of all, the high price of oil is not necessarily good news for investors in oil and gas (that's counter-intuitive; I've discussed it before; not going to go over that again, at least for the time being).

Having said that, if WTI goes over $100, the best time for that to happen is after the North Dakota winter storms, and the spring flooding, so the $104 is coming at just about the right time for Bakken operators.

I don't get it, though, why oil is up almost 1% today, solidly above $104. What are the DrudgeReport headlines? Not one thing to suggest geo-political events -- sure, Putin is about to invade the Ukraine, but that's all about natural gas. The big story over at CNN.com is all about the "black box." The CNN folks certainly are not worried about the impending Ukrainian takeover.

As long as we're in a "Joan Jett" sort of mind, here's another, from 1984:

Do You Wanna Touch Me (Oh, Yeah), Joan Jett

Data Points From The Bakken -- For Newbies -- Sweet Dreams Are Made Of These ...

... who am I to disagree?

After updating the 4Q13 well results (still in progress) and I probably won't finish today, some observations, from corporate presentations, press releases, news reports, Bakken well data:
  • when I first started blogging about the Bakken, I said that a Bakken well probably "paid for itself at the wellhead" after 100,000 bbls; then with more expensive wells, I moved that figure to 150,000 bbls; I now think that Bakken wells "pay for themselves at 75,000 bbls" -- partly due to the longest stretch of high oil prices in history; narrowing spread between WTI and Brent; cost of wells coming down
  • there are "no" dry wells in the Bakken
  • "payback" is hell -- more on this cryptic comment a year from; until then, don't ask, don't tell
  • Enerplus Resources is the biggest surprise; some huge wells
  • several oil fields to watch: Banks, Truax, Antelope, Mandaree; some of these are the "same old names," but Mandaree is interesting (an Enerplus Resources field)
  • Statoil continues to have huge IPs; moderate wells in the long run
  • BR has huge IPs; great wells in the long run
  • CLR remains an enigma: moderate IPs; moderate wells; but lots of "seed corn" planted
  • KOG has highest cost wells, but consistently great wells
  • natural fracking is the operator's best friend, but if you don't have natural fracking, max out sand -- 10 million lbs is a nice start
  • number of stages may be less important than total amount of sand
  • the increase in the number of perforations (I can't imagine that adds much marginal cost)
  • the experienced roughnecks are correct: they've never seen anything like the Bakken
Sweet Dreams Are Made Of These, Eurythmics

Odds And Ends; Enerplus Hitting Some Huge Wells

Some things noted while updating old Bakken posts.

Look at this spectacular Enerplus well in Mandaree:
  • 22666, 1,538, Enerplus Resources, Pinto 149--93-29A-32H, Mandaree, 39 stages; 9 million lbs sand; very high gas pressure (up to 8,000 units); 20 - 40 foot strong flare; t9/13; cum 115K 2/14;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20142811471116163702569656960
BAKKEN1-20143112888130375307929392930
BAKKEN12-2013301594415882613311996119960
BAKKEN11-2013291744517480700215720157200
BAKKEN10-2013293063930490994018383018383
BAKKEN9-20132125135247682523915081015081

A spectacular Slawson well in Big Bend, look at minimal amount of frack sand:
  • 25050, 891, Slawson, Alamo 3-19-18H, Big Bend, about 28 days to TD, poor gas show initially but did rise to 5,200 units at its highest, 34 stages 1.6 million lbs sand, t6/13; cum 126K 2/14;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-201414436544721729215220820
BAKKEN1-201428953498203883756474240
BAKKEN12-2013311342313417444613450132950
BAKKEN11-2013301859018458482714174140240
BAKKEN10-20132913477138304397999898530
BAKKEN9-2013301768417660555211429112790
BAKKEN8-20133120446202867920265224970
BAKKEN7-20133119250193169341384740
BAKKEN6-20131088558073299010000

Another spectacular Enerplus well, this one targeting the Three Forks:
  • 22665, 1,352, Enerplus, Mustang 149-93-29A-32H TF, Mandaree, high gas (6,500 units) with a 10 - 20 foot flare), frack data not yet posted; t9/13; cum 115K 2/14;
How about the XTO well with an IP of 0:
  • 25383, 0, XTO, Allie 31X-24H, Capa, 27 stages; 3 million lbs; t9/13; cum 37K 2/14;