Friday, August 7, 2026

Jobs Report -- Only A Scrooge Would Raise Rates -- The Jobs Numbers Were Horrendous -- Futures Spike -- August 7, 2026

Locator: 51352JOBS.

For Investors 

Absolutely Goldilocks.

I don't think "things" could look better for investors. 

  • the market has reset -- AI, tech -- sort of how I see it (others may see it differently)
    • investors are getting used to big numbers with AI;
    • investors are getting used to huge CAPEX numbers for AI companies
    • hyperscalers: GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, META, SPACEX 
    • cloud providers: CoreWeave and Oracle are direct competitors
    • GPUs / CPUs / TPUS: Nvidia / AMD, INTC / AVGO
    • modems / other: QCOM
    • memory, US / Korean: MU, Sandisk / SK HYNIX
    • fabs: TSMC, MU, Samsung, Texas Industries, GlobalFoundries
    • consumer electronic: AAPL 
    • chatbots: Gemini, ChatGPT, Claude,  
  • WTI is re-setting
    • the Mideast:
    • 75% chance: Trump/Israel responds when Iran attacks US/Israeli ships
      • US blockade of Iran continues 
      • WTI spikes (again -- but nothing the US consumer can't handle)
      • US consumer assumes gasoline is expensive no matter what the real facts are
      • that's good
    • 20% chance: Trump accepts Iran's terms; both sides declare victory
      • Iran remains a caged bear while Trump is in office 
    • 5% chance: something else
  • jobs report: in big scheme of things, nothing new, simply unwinding the temporary job growth due to FIFA Soccer World Cup
  • wage growth: not even an issue; significantly less than expected for month of July

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Jobs Report
Unemployment Remains At 4.1% 

Too many numbers; I won't go through them; I won't report them.

Steve Liesman is apocalyptic. Liesman was calling for three rate hikes by the end of the year. All of a sudden, things have changed.

Wage increase? Up one-tenth of one percent vs an expectation of three-tenths of one percent.

NASDAQ went up from +175 to  +245 in the last 30 seconds.

And, wow, wow, wow. Cramer's first hour is coming up in ten minutes unless he's taking today off.  [Shoot! Jim Cramer and David Farber have the day off.]

Having said all that, I think Steve Liesman is correct -- this is simply the unwinding of the FIFA Soccer World Cup. 

But the big story: oil.

Irony, it seems, that we are back to oil as being the big story.

Covid-19 resulted in a long lockdown but the impact was even longer. 

I'm starting to get the feeling that the Iran war over the strait will have a similarly long effect on energy, both natural gas and oi. 

Oh, by the way, all this anti-LDC talk is idential to the anti-frack talk of some decades ago. It's easy to see from where this anti-LDC talk is coming.