Sunday -- March 2, 2025

Locator: 48443ARCHIVES.

Politics: the big kerfuffle today -- did Zelenskyy or did Zelenskyy not campaign for Kamala Harris in the most recent campaign. Link here to the French press.

Politics: in less than 24 hours, in less than one news cycle, President Trump:

• has completely flipped his party's support for Ukraine;
• has prompted the launch of NATO- (NATO without US);
• has established an entire new world order:
• US, Russia, Turkey :: Turkey, Ukraine, western Europe
  
• has forced the opposition to argue for the war to last longer
  
• has saved the American taxpayer $350 billion.

NATO: and now he's ready to cut the number of US troops in Europe by 20%. Trump, Hegseth, and JD Vance would be the guys to pull it off.

Equity markets, over time, link here:

Texas: US space center. We've always had NASA. Then SpaceX. Then Intuitive Machines. Now Firefly Aerospace.  Link here. One wonders if there might be better mining opportunities on the moon than in Ukraine?

NVDA: said it so much better than I could have said it. Link here.

INTC: delays Ohio chip plant ... to next decade. Was supposed to start production by 2026. Link here. And whatever happened to that supposed takeover? From two weeks ago.

Chip war: sparse, early notes. 

I don't know if the book is relevant any more -- things move way too quickly in this sector, but it certainly provides a nice review of perhaps why we are where we are. I don't know, but at the time, I was thrilled I read The Chip War. Again, not sure if it's even worth reading any more, things change so quickly. But a very, very easy read and really well organized. Link to WSJ article, December 30, 2024.

Energy: Burgum had the soundbite of the year with regard to energy -- the US is not in an energy transition" mode; the US is in an energy addition mode. Dan Tsubouchi has been beating this drum as long as I've been following him on x. Link here. Also from Dan, origin of oil by PADD. I think I just read somewhere Trump has moved the goal posts slightly:

• China: no change; will add 10% to current levies;
• Canada: no change. still 25%
• Mexico: maybe shave 10 - 15% --> making initial tariffs 15% at the high end; 10% at the low end.

Speaking of Mexico: there are reports that Trump is sending an additional combat-experienced Army unit to the border -- 3,000 soldiers out of Colorado. Eager to know where they're being sent; mission. Comes on news of 30 top Mexican cartel leaders turned over to the US by the Mexican president. 

My hunch: the Zelenskyy meeting will have repercussions this next week. It's hard to believe that the White House staff didn't get marching orders from Trump / JD Vance as soon as that meeting was over. Zelenskyy better be praying that Trump settles down, and talks to some cooler heads. Trump may not like what he hears on Sunsday morning news programs.

For the archives, YouTube diplomacy:

• link here.
• link here.
• maybe the best? From Geiger Capital over at x.  
• VDH; ten bad takeaways -- one will need to google -- to find transcript on FoxNews, one will have to google; one of many from VDH. Google: VICTOR DAVIS HANSON: 10 bad takeaways from the Zelenskyy blow-up.

Alibaba: for the archives. I have no interest. I may regret those four words thirty years from now.

Buffett:

• link here, slashes his exposure to US stocks. That's the headline; hardly the reality.

Re-posting: Bank of New York. Might discuss this later. Memo to self -- dividends. Link to The WSJ.