Saturday, August 3, 2024

Everything Everywhere Happening All At Once, Part 1 -- August 1, 2024

Locator: 48319ARCHIVES.

Re-posting to add several items. New items in bold red.

These are the stories that interest me most right now; links may eventually follow.

Buffett:

  • news and commentary -- August 4, 2024
  • selling stock; "overnight" slashed 50% of his AAPL holdings; sold off most of his BofA holdings
  • raising record amounts of cash -- and I mean record amounts of cash; and, no, he's not going to declare a special dividend, which some folks are suggesting. LOL.
  • no one knows why; thinking back on financial crisis of 2008

EVs

  • by now, "we" should be much farther along the S-shaped curve;
  • VW looking to close an EV manufacturing plant in Belgium; first auto manufacturing plant to close in Europe; lack of interest in EVs in Europe
  • American car companies can't afford to keep making EVs
  • Tesla talking a big story, but failing to meet milestones

Chips:

  • US computer chip manufacturing; loss of Intel could be catastrophic for US chip program
  • all eyes on security of Taiwan, where 95% of all global computer chips actually manufactured
  • there was a reason the US Federal government passed the "CHIPS Act."
  • Intel: not "too big to fail," but rather, "too important to fail."

Politics:

  • polls absolutely not looking good for Vance/Trump after "cats" and "hostage deal" comments
  • presumed bounces before election:
    • Trump has none
    • Kamala has two: a) after she names her VP; and, b) after the convention
  • we should know a lot more with regard to polling ten days from now, but right now some polls in swing states show huge lead by Harris
  • Kamala doing final interviews for VP this weekend; will announce NLT than next Friday, I'm thinking Monday
  • Trump underestimated the multi-racial demographic 
  • next president will get at least one US Supreme Court pick; possibly two

Mideast:

  • huge successes for Netanyahu the past two weeks; three top terrorists killed?
  • but the story is not yet over
  • major regional war about to break out 
    • US Navy returning in force; occurring in backdrop of US presidential election; Kamala Harris, not particularly strong with regard to Israel has to tread carefully, if not to lose Democrats in Detroit; Democrats in Pennsylvania 
    • France, Saudi Arabia: have told its citizens to get out of Lebanon now

Investing

  • if interested in equities, highly recommend following Evan over at twitter
  • market is only going to get more volatile
  • great, great buying opportunities for those with long horizons
  • investors will stay the course

Chevron

  • with regard to Hess / Guyana, Chevron in deep doo-doo
  • Chevron / Hess need to find another path

EVs

  • the narrative continues
  • VW will close first automotive plant in Europe; first ever automobile plant closed in modern era

AI

  • follow the money
  • follow the data centers
  • follow the chips
  • investors
    • stay focused: 
      • copper, fiber, chips (CPUs, FPUs, NPUs), 
      • data centers, hyperscalers, natural gas, utilities

INTC:

  • down as much as 20% after hours; lowest in a decade;
  • announced two-year warranty on all PCs affected by their fried CPUs; 
  • will cost INTC huge amounts of money (think Ford, warranty costs)
  • still hasn't released a fix for fried CPUs; fix not expected until mid-August

AAPL

  • it will take a week to sort out the takeaways from the most recent quarterly earnings
  • analysts don't get it: it's an "ecosystem
  • services revenue is now becoming the story; 
  • Apple, Inc. has more than 2.2 billion active and installed devices
  • does average Apple user spend $10 per month on Apple services?
    • warranties
    • AppleCare+ ($3/month)
    • cloud storage (minimum: 99 cents/month; next level, $2.99/month; as much as $69.99/month)
    • TV+ ($9.99 / month)
    • ads
    • Apple Music ($10.99 / month)
  • Apple's total net sales run about $400 billion annually
  • new record set this last quarter but Tim won't release actual numbers
  • Apple ecosystem, Apple users:
    • at a minimum: two mobile devices -- an iPhone and laptop
    • most common: three mobile devices -- an iPhone, laptop, and tablet or watch
    • rare, but not unusual: three mobile devices and a desktop computer
    • perhaps not as rare as folks think: four mobile devices and a desktop computer
    • each member older than ten years of age in a family has two mobile devices
  • need for speed
    • NVDA/AMD: moving at freeway speeds
    • AAPL: taking the frontage roads
    • INTC: in the ditch
  • Apple's installed user base:


The Fed
:

  • panelists on CNBC fit to be tied that JPow and Fed "lied." Not following the data;
  • had they stayed true to their word, would have announced a cut by now.
  • anger / frustration will soon be forgotten; eager to see how long the buying opportunity lasts;
  • September is a huge month for dividends; many folks hope buying opportunities last through the autumn;

Mad Money (CNBC): reruns --

  • current episode: S18 E731 -- trying to find the date -- sounds like yesterday -- Thursday, August 1, 2024
  • this is important because I missed today's episode; want to see the rerun tomorrow; eager to see what Cramer had to say about the debacle in today's (August 1, 2024) market
  • cutting retail prices may drive foot traffic (think McDonald's) but it will hit margins --> will hit earnings --> will hit Wall Street; this is not rocket science
  • Diageao YTD: -14.36% despite huge sales volume

Never quit reading

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Polls

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From Reddit Tonight

Link here.

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