US Economy -- Yahoo!Finance -- February 3, 2024

Locator: 46730ECON.

Yahoo!Finance: Saturday morning brief; week in review.

Consumer spending accounts for 2/3rd of US GDP: 

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Productivity

Link here. 

Re-posting:

How many hundreds of thousands of new jobs = a 25-basis point cut? For earnings, not market action.

• Wow, talking heads are nuts. Meme investing.
• let's opine:
• 100,000 new jobs = a 25-basis point cut
  
• 3.5 x 25 = 87.5 basis points
  

How much of a drop in oil price = a 25-basis point cut? For earnings, not market action.

• let's opine:
• every $2.5 drop in WTI = 25-basis point
• $80 - $7.5 = $72.5-WTI =  another 75-basis point

Sub-total: 87.5 + 75 = 162.5 basis points

Currently: 

• 550 - 162.5 = 387.5. Let's call it 3.75%.

Productivity, link here:

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The Fed Rate

... with a few annotations.

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History

The Great Recession

Link here.

The leading indicator: housing prices.  

If JPow was allowed only one chart to watch, what would he watch?

Commercial real estate might come in second.