Inflation Surprise! Market Surges -- August 10, 2023

Locator: 45406B. 

CPI: most-watched indicator comes in lower than expected. 

• Mmarket surges. Stays with a 3-handle. And GDPNow with a 4-handle. Goldilocks economy? 
• again, called it.
• CNBC's darling chartist Carter's 9% correction will have to wait.

Recession obsession: Alibaba stock jumps as earnings smash estimates. Link here.

Inflation: I flip-flop on this issue almost weekly it seems, but at the end-of-the-day, as they say, this is pretty much what I've said over the years with regard to CPI, energy and food inflation. This was my not-ready-for-prime-time reply to a reader who suggested (as Yahoo!Finance also does) that increasing gasoline prices this month will drive higher food prices and higher inflation numbers next month:

Great news for me. My portfolio will do quite well, and gasoline demand has plummeted -- data posted weekly by the EIA -- and like US postage stamps, it's not how much a stamp costs or how much a gallon of gasoline costs, it's how much one spends on each, every month. 

I send almost nothing on postage each month; between e-mail and Amazon, almost no postage costs.

Gasoline: upwards of 65% of workers now work from home three days a week -- biggest driver of gasoline demand in the US.

Gasoline demand, contrary to the memes, has very little effect on price of goods on a day-to-day, month-to-month basis. And as diesel prices go up and truck shipping prices go up, companies move to ship by rail. [Buffett's BRK-BNSF; and, for me, UNP.]

I've seen very, very little correlation between the economy and the price of gasoline in the big scheme of things. 

Gasoline has been very, very high this summer, and inflation? Down.

See stories on likely social security increases next year. Bad news for seniors as inflation rates come down.

Restaurant costs: the big inflation problem for Americans -- spending $100 on a restaurant meal they could prepare at home for $10 - $25. Then add in the $10-cocktail at "cheap" restaurants, and upwards fo $25 at really nice restaurants.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $83.67.

Friday, August 11, 2023: 18 for the month; 220 for the quarter, 475 for the year

39567, conf, CLR, Edward 3-23H,

Thursday, August 10, 2023: 17 for the month; 219 for the quarter, 474 for the year
39455, conf, CLR, Edward 4-23H1,

38915, conf, Enerplus, MC-Kudrna 144-95-10-3-5H,

RBN Energy: clean methanol gains momentum as a shipping fuel of the near-future.