The Blog -- July 2, 2023

Locator: 44868B.

The Bakken: in 2009, with some posts as early as 2007, I started blogging about the Bakken because I was curious about the coming shale revolution. Over time the blog evolved. It was never an investment site. But in the process of blogging about the Bakken I became much more disciplined in my investing. Whether I've done better, from a dollar point of view, had I not blogged, I will never know, but I do feel much more relaxed and much more comfortable about investing since starting to blog. Much more could be said, maybe later.

Apple: I was the original Fanboy #3. Several others lay claim to that title, but let's see who has an e-mail address with some variation of that handle. I have followed Apple much, much longer than I've followed the Bakken. I started following Apple in 1984, well before EOG, Harold Hamm, Slawson, and the others probably even knew of the Bakken's potential (link here.) Like the Bakken, I never followed Apple for investing reasons. 

The fork in the road.

The Bakken: consciously, provides me little insight with regard to investing. Subconsciously and emotionally, blogging about the Bakken probably pays a significant role. But for those who are much, much more knowledgeable about oil and the Bakken, one might argue, the easy money has been made. By the time Buffett jumps into something, in this case OXY, it's like Bruce Springsteen making the cover of Time and Newsweek. By that time ... 

Apple: for me, AAPL might be where the Bakken was in 2000 (Montana) or 2007 (North Dakota. [Digression: I'm using the "Bakken" as a metonym, not as the geological play that straddles ND, MT, and Saskatchewan]. 

If I'm right, this offers a second, or a third, or a fourth opportunity for investors who missed AAPL in 1984, 2011, and 2020. See history of Apple.

For me, Apple-2020 is very, very similar to Bakken-MT-2000 and Apple-2023 is very, very similar to Bakken-ND-2007 in terms of a "break-out."

The Bakken broke out in 2007 but didn't hit its stride until 2012 / 2013 by which time investors (repeat: investors, not traders) had planted their seed corn and were now starting to harvest some of the early crops and rotating others.

The very same thing is happening now. The really, really smart folks following Apple (unfortunately not me) planted their most recent seed corn in 2020 and saw the fruits of those plantings on June 30, 2023. 

We will now see some significant harvesting, but two things are going to happen. One, not necessarily first, there will be a rotation among the various [existing] varieties of seed corn. Two, not necessarily second, there will be a scramble by investors [and traders] looking for new varieties.

See World Economic Forum, January 14, 2016, or wiki.

[By the way, the Germans got the technology right but the Germans were unable to capitalize due to Greta, the greens, and subsequent failed energy policies. One wonders to what extent the CIA and Al Gore orchestrated this German, then pan-European, failure.]

What does this mean for blogging?

TheMillionDollarWay blog is not an investment site. It never has been and never will be. 

My posts are a combination of facts, factoids, opinions, and trolling. And it's very, very difficult to sort things out -- everything needs to be fact-checked and I continue to post links to help folks get started. I may not always provide the sources, but I always try to provide the links.

[Trolling has a bad name in social media but in fact, it can be quite profitable. There's a reason that those who like to fish, often troll.]

Most importantly: I tried to organize the blog to make it somewhat easier to follow the Bakken. I've always maintained the sidebar at the right and the links at the top are more important than the daily posts.

Likewise, I am reorganizing the blog to make it easier to follow Apple.

More to follow.

Storm clouds are gathering and I'm on my bike.

Part Two

With regard to the Bakken (the metonym), investors are mostly simply re-arranging the chairs, the chairs being the operators and the acreage in the various plays. Most folks who have followed the Bakken since 2007 are probably quite familiar with most of the "chairs."

Very little of that is going on in comparison to Apple. One, there are way more "chairs" involved with Apple [and we will now start using "Apple" as a metonym, also]. Two, the "chairs" have changed significantly since 2011. 

Following the June, 2023, WWDC there's going to be a lot more new "chairs." Which means .... ta da ... we need another scorecard.... link here.