Again, it seems the talk is worse than the data. But ... it's the big story this year ...
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Inventories
After a decade of following this stuff, I'm losing interest in tracking inventories. Actually, that's not correct. I continue to have interest in inventories as data points. However, inventory data without context is not helpful. And, worse, perhaps inventory of anything is the wrong metric. Yes, there is a much, much better metric, which I've talked about on numerous occasions.
Hypothetical example:
- September, 2021: days of supply -- 14 days
- anticipated problems? Three hurricanes to knock out Gulf refiners
- September, 2022: days of supply -- 28 days
- anticipated problems? None.
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