The Market: The Big Stories -- Automobiles, Chips, And Oil -- In Other Words -- Same Ol', Same Ol' -- April 1, 2022

March jobs:

• 431,000 "new" jobs vs expected 490,000
• February: upwardly revised: to 750,000 --
• but a drop from 750,000 to 450,000 is alarming, considering the number of openings
• unemployment ticks down to 3.6% vs 3.7% expected -- does not fit definition of stagflation (three components: inflation, no GDP flat, and high unemployment, the third being the one the Brits are concerned about the most)
• average hourly earnings, in-line

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The market: similar today to what happened yesterday. Oil companies doing better than market in general before the big afternoon sell-off. And then they all did badly.

The buzz:

• the Biden Surge will ensure price of oil will stay higher longer, perhaps just not as high;
• IEA suggests sanctions will result in about a loss of three million Russian bopd net; source;
• something tells me the release was more than political; there is outright panic;
• since the release is to occur over six months, and by then, almost nothing left to release, have we telegraphed Putin that sanctions will come off after the mid-term elections, regardless of Ukraine?
• it wouldn't be the first time we've telegraphed our intentions to Putin;
• Brazil: despite dry holes reported by XOM, analysts still suggest Brazil will pay off big for XOM; source;
• Venezuela: scrambles to find oil tankers; expects sanctions to be lifted; can you spell CVX? Source.

UK energy crisis: the number of "fuel-stressed households" in the UK doubled overnight; link to Charles Kennedy. If it's being reported by Charles Kennedy, you can take it to the bank. 

EU: inflation hits new peak; ECB's dilemma; source.

Semiconductors, chips:

• one would think these companies would be doing better by now; what's up?
• this is perhaps the biggest enigma right now; Covid challenges in Asia?

Autos:

• it looks like I was a bit too optimistic;
• I suggested a few weeks ago that there would be a glut of new cars reaching dealers this summer; now, not so sure:
• reported yesterday, GM and Ford to stop production of sedans for one week, due to chip shortage;
• now, add Stellantis: will shut down its Belvidere, IL, midsize SUV plant, and its Detroit, MI, full-size SUV plant next week for one week; source;
• Ford Mustang production also temporarily halted due to chip shortage -- that was back in January, 2022; source;
• now, today, Ford to halt Mustang production at Michigan due to chip shortage; source;
• the key word is "significantly" -- Ford Mustang Mach-E sales down significantly in February, 2022; source; note the source for this story; volume dropped by almost half year-over-year; margins already very, slim on EVs; will get worse
• note the spin they try to put on this story: 

Ford Mustang Mach-E Ford Mustang Mach-E sales in February amounted to 2,001, which is surprisingly 46.5% less than in February 2021. 

We hoped that the Mach-E would improve as the demand is high, but the company is clearly struggling on the production side. 

We heard that in February production was halted due to a lack of semiconductors, which means that the situation will not likely improve significantly in the near future. 

Nonetheless, the Ford Mustang Mach-E was responsible for 1.6% of the total Ford sales volume in the US.

• Nonetheless.

• None.

• Less.

• I don't know about you, but "in the near future" suggests at a minimum, 18 months;
• and then, this, chariots on fire; it's not just Teslas any more: Ford recalls 737,000 US vehicles over software and fire-risk issues; source;
• I continue to accumulate shares in Ford, but there is obviously no hurry. no FOMO;
• by the way, making things worse for automobiles manufacturers and consumers: President Biden reinstated the huge CAFE requirements for US car companies; these mandates will significantly increase the cost of cars people want, and increase the costs of cars people don't want even more.
  
• before this is over, we'll all be driving pickup trucks
  

The WarnerBros.Discovery company: update here. It will be fascinating to see if CNN changes. 

April 1: a reader suggested re-naming "April Fool's Day" -- President Biden's Day. 

NYTimes "Wordle": has announced "sensitive words" will no longer be used; as a five-letter puzzle this means "biden" as a word can never be used, as in "biden' time until things change."