Natural Gas Fill Rate -- April 30, 2022

Fill rate.

I forgot to post this graph this past week; a reader reminded me. 

My reply:

Thank you. I had forgotten to post that.

Two weeks ago (or maybe three), the fill curve had not yet turned "up" which concerned a lot of folks because by now it should be filling. Some thought it might go below the five-year minimum.

It looks like it won't go below the 5-year minimum and won't set a new "low" record. It has started to turn up.

One thing I've learned about natural gas: besides being very, very seasonal, producers can fill very quickly if they need to. Unlike crude oil which seems to take awhile from spud to pipeline, natural gas wells can be drilled quickly, etc, etc.

So, although natural gas will be expensive and there may be some headline stories on regional shortages, I still think the real story is going to be diesel.