I will have to update my major themes for 2022.
This is going to be a most fascinating story: whether global crude oil supply will meet global demand.
From Reuters today: OPEC+ trims forecast for 2022 oil market surplus in latest data.
It seems folks are pretty much evenly divided on this subject.
In fact, the wrong question is being asked.
Of course, production / supply will meet demand.
The question?
At what price?
Newest wrinkle: the fact that Putin has actually played the nuclear card changes things dramatically. I can only assume Germany and the EU are scrambling to figure out how they respond.
Putin wasn't bluffing when he positioned his military along the Ukraine border. It's hard to argue he's bluffing when he plays the nuclear card.
One of the big banks forecast $120 / bbl as the average price for oil in the first quarter. I will have to go back and check that. If that was for the first quarter 2021, we're quickly running out of runway.
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New Word
Link here. The Germans have had this word for years. Biden-Kerry have a similar plan for the US.
Answer to question: Energiewende.
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