Notes From All Over -- The "Break-Out" Edition -- April 29, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Market opening: NASDAQ, S&P 500 hit all time highs. 

First:

• 10-Year Treasury: link here. 
• DXY: link here.
  
• Silver: link  here. 
• CBOE volatility index: link here. Explained at Investopedia.
  

Records, records, and more records.

1Q21 GDP estimate --

• 1Q21 forecast: 6.6% -- actual, comes in at 6.4%; good but not great
• Goldman Sachs forecast 5.4%; suggesting it would be 2Q21 that would be the "big" quarter (average estimate of 8.1%; as high as 10.5%); link here.
  
• 4Q20: 4.3%

Inflation: 3.5% vs 2.% estimate.

Jobless, first time claims: around 550,000 -- another record low (barely) during the pandemic.

Stocks are off to best start to a presidential term since Great Depression -- The Wall Street Journal, link here:

• S&P 500 has rise 10% since Mr Biden's January 20, 2021, inauguration;
• best start since the days of FDR
• perfect storm:
• bountiful government spending
• increasing Covid-19 vaccinations
• growing faith in the economic reopening
• continued support from the Federal Reserve
• more to come: more fiscal stimulus
• infrastructure plan package: $2.3 trillion
• social spending plan: $1.8 trillion

US economy appears to be lifting off -- The Wall Street Journal, link here;

Amazon: earnings poised to surge -- The Wall Street Journal, link here;

Of interest. Earnings calendar.

• AMZN: after market close
• BAX: before market open
• CMCSA: before market open
• McDonald's: before market open

Hopefully, folks are paying attention. This may just be the most incredible bull market anyone alive has ever seen. Does anyone remember the recession? There was (and still is, in many cases and many places, a depression on Main Street, but the investor class is doing very, very well).

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Unforgettable:

• "Our grandchildren will never see snow again." -- Kennedy
• "Before any oil companies start to go bankrupt, you've got to diversify." -- Biden's US Sec of Energy, link here;
• "One shouldn't have to decide between a job and a check." -- President Biden

Rumors of the death of the E&P industry have been greatly exaggerated. Link here.  

• The 6-month numbers simply blow me away.

Shell: link here --

• profit surges more than expected;
• will increase payout by 4%;
• huge debt load;
• net income: $3.23 billion, up from $2.68 billion a year ago vs estimate of $3.06 billion
  

BP: link here -- 

• resumes buybacks; 1Q21 profit triples:

Total: link here --

• profit surged more than expected;
• net income was $3 billion, up 69% from a year earlier;
• well above the analyst estimate of $2.35 billion
  
• surpasses pre-pandemic earnings of the same period in 2019
  
• latest oil maor to see earnings return to pre-pandemic levels;
• at the linked article

Big Oil has enjoyed more favorable conditions this year thanks to rising crude prices and recovering fuel demand, but Total is in a better position than many of its peers.

While BP Plc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc are under pressure to return more money to investors after slashing their dividends in 2020, Total maintained its payout throughout the crisis and will funnel its cash into new projects and the transition to cleaner energy. The French company’s renewable power output more than doubled in the first quarter and it gave the green light to a multibillion-dollar oil development in Uganda.

CMCSA: link here; and, here, The Wall Street Journal; 

• Comcast's profit soars amid broadband and wireless growth
• cellphone unit Xfinity Mobile broke even for first time;
• 55% rise in first-quarter profit;
• broadband, wireless customer additions top views;
• EPS: up 7% from a year ago to 76 cents/share vs 59 cents; a year earlier, 71 cents;
• revenue climbed 2% but "fell more than expected at NBCUniversal
• operates:
• Xfinity branded services;
• the NBCUniversal entertainment empire
• UK-based Sky television business