Notes From All Over -- Early Morning Edition -- January 21, 2021

Early trading. 

AA: oh-oh. Down almost 10% day after new CEO/CIC for the US is sworn in. Repeat: down almost 10% one day later. Wasn't Alcoa a bellwether some years ago? I wonder who uses a lot of aluminum these days? I know I flew back from Portland, OR, to DFW, two nights ago in what appeared to be an aluminum tube.

BKR: has changed its ticker symbol so often in the past few years, I assume a lot of folks have lost track of it. Baker Hughes, then Baker-GE, now just Baker. Who knows? Maybe soon WBKR: "where's Baker?" But it's on a tear today. Was up even more earlier this morning, but now up 1.34%.

UNP: investors not happy with earnings report provided this morning. Down a whopping $8/share -- about 3.5%. Buying opportunity.

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Pipelines: sort of a mixed bag. Investors are weighing impact of killing the Keystone XL.

Airlines: I think they are in deeper trouble than we are being told. CNBC's analyst on airlines puts up a good front, but this a.m. seems a bit more sanguine on airlines. Look at UAL. This is not good at all. All airlines down this morning. Capacity in 1Q20 being reported at 50 - 60%. Even if Covid went away today, a lot of folks would prefer virtual meetings. 

UAL: not unexpected. Posted a $2.1 billion 4Q20 loss, its fourth-in-a-row; issued a tepid near-term forecast. Down another 5% today. Trading at $42.75. 

TGT: up $5.10; up almost 3%.

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Remote Learning And Banana Bread

In a few minutes Sophia will begin her "remote learning" day with me (her school mornings are at her house with her mom and older sisters; from 11:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. she is at our little apartment).

She will do remote learning on her Webex and Seesaw, and periodically she will turn off the Webex video (so she can't be seen) so she can prepare and bake her banana bread. The ingredients have been set out for her. 

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Crawdad Season

It's only January, but I'm already looking for crawdad season ... I think it begins in March. Two years ago, I went to the seafood restaurant and had crawdads ... twice. Last year, due to Covid-19, I ordered crawdads from two different restaurants and had crawdads eight times. This year, I hope to double that. I got started late last year. So, yes, Covid-19 has changed my habits, and even when Covid-19 goes away and life gets back to normal, I will do the same. I save about 50% on total lunch of crawdads because I order only crawdads from the restaurants. Sides and drinks are already here at the house and are essentially "free" compared to what those sides and drinks would cost me at the restaurant. Plus the dollars in tips saved. It's quite amazing. And since most folks in my extended family doesn't care for crawdads, they don't have to come to the restaurant, order something else, while I have crawdads. I have crawdads at home and they have their dinner. 

And no haircut in the past year. At $20/haircut, twice a month .... well, do the math ...

And gasoline? The last time I filled up with gasoline for my little Honda Civic was December 13th, 2020. 

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The Next Best Big Thing
From The Perspective Of A Six Year Old

Sophia asked me to write this note and give it to her director at TutorTime. After "remote learning," Sophia goes to TutorTime for her after-school program, 3:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. I telephone Sophia before I pick her up each day about 5:00 p.m. to see when she wants to be picked up. When I call the center, the director transfers the call directly to Sophia's room and her teacher hands the telephone to Sophia. It's complicated. 

So, Sophia had a better idea, until she's allowed to have her own Apple Watch:

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Bad News, Good News, Really Bad News

Bad news: yesterday, US set a new record for number of Covid-19 related deaths. This will improve once the administration issues new criteria defining "Covid-19-related" deaths. Of course, the best thing the government could do would be to impose a $35,000 administration-compliance fee on any physician who lists cause of death as "Covid-related."

Good news: yesterday, number of new cases below 200,000, continuing that trend set in the previous administration. Expect this number to fall precipitously as government mandates less sensitive testing. 

Really bad news: Dr Fauci will take on a bigger role in policy development. Look for:

• TM: triple masking; with quadruple masking for GOP in the US Senate
  
• MMIP: mandated masks in public
• BBB: masks must carry "Bring Back Better" logo
• Slow down the vaccination rollout; need to get it right; bureaucracies need to be in control; avoid pushing vaccination too quickly; could lead to unforeseen problems
• establish new cabinet-level agency: Department of Pandemic Affairs, patterned after the VA