Off The Net Tonight -- November 3, 2020

I won't be following the news tonight, and won't be opening any e-mail that is political in nature tonight. I may do a bit on the Bakken but mostly I'm going to be listening to Jerry Jeff Walker.

Good luck to all.  

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Yup!

This was over at oilprice earlier today. For all I know, the article is still there. I haven't read the article, don't know what it's all about, but I can guess. OPEC is facing a crisis. (US shale may be facing a crisis, also, but that's a story for another time). WTI is flirting with $39 and trending up. OPEC basket is below $36 and trending down.

I haven't bothered to look why the OPEC basket is plunging (that could change by the end of the week), but think about it:

• the two major producers (Russia and Saudi Arabia) need the income; they can't keep cutting production all by themselves to prop up prices;
• US oil imports from Saudi Arabia plummeted; absolutely unexpected; hurricane-related; who knows? who cares? the US is clearly self-sufficient when it comes to energy;
• Iraq apparently has decided that Saudi Arabia won't call the shots any more; Iraq will produce what it wants to produce -- it's become an existential issue for Iraq --
  
• From October 30, 2020, Iraq: crumbling economy becomes a threat to OPEC+ production cuts.

Iraq may be the world's third-biggest oil exporter, but its economy is cratering after the coronavirus pandemic sapped global demand for energy and caused prices to collapse. 

The state's finances are so dire it can't pay teachers and civil servants on time, threatening a repeat of the upheaval that last year brought down the government and saw hundreds of protesters killed. 

That's created a dilemma for 46-year-old Abdul Jabbar, a chemical engineer and career oil man who's now caught between the demands of an angry population and the pledges made to allies in OPEC. 

The group of oil producers is trying to bolster a fragile market by reining in supply and it needs major producers like Iraq to toe the line. For Iraq, restraining supply carries a massive economic and political cost. But breaking ranks is risky too: it could mean lower prices for everyone. 

Some Iraqis want the government to put them first by simply pumping more oil, a move that could unravel the finely calibrated output agreement; if a producer as significant as Iraq flouts the pact, there'd be little to stop smaller ones doing the same.

Libya: every time I see an analyst mention Libya, I roll me eyes, but I have to admit that right now, Libya is a real thorn in Saudi Arabia's side. Libya is not subject to quotas or cuts, and is now back to producing upwards of 800,000 bopd or about 10% of Saudi Arabia's production. Scary. For Saudi Arabia. 

If Biden becomes president, "Katie, bar the door." The Biden wing is a huge Iranian supporter and the first thing Biden et al will do is lift sanctions. 

So, this remains the most fascinating international energy story.  

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Lolita

I've tried more than once to read Vladimir's Nabokov's Lolita. It becomes boring very quickly and very difficult to follow. It turns out a movie version exists. I watched the movie on TCM today. Absolutely fascinating. Then read the wiki "plot." I may try reading the book again. 

This "hit" resulted from this google search: Salinger Nabokov pedophile: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3c8a/9ee20a3c2d0b4bfd520ee3e6a4270764056e.pdf.