Reader Comments On Crude Oil Production Records That May Reach New Highs This Year -- August 21, 2019

This is pretty cool. A reader sent in this very interesting note.

The reader sees four iconic US "state" oil production records that may (likely will) be set in 2019:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbblpd_m.htm

1. Texas will break through 5 million bopd. It may happen as soon as the next monthly report. Texas is already at 4.92 million bopd.

2. Federal GOM may break 2 million bopd. The Federal GOM has been as high as 1.982 million bopd  (April, 2019). Hurricanes may affect the summer, but there is even a chance that we will  sneak by with the June report (comes out end of August, 2019). If not, than perhaps later this fall.

3. North Dakota will break1.5 million bopd. North Dakota has definitely slowed down due to lower prices. That said, the state is showing over 1.4 million bopd. And North Dakota usually gets some summer/fall growth. So there is a decent chance we break through sometime in November or so.

4. New Mexico will break 1 million  bopd. New Mexico is already at 0.9 million bopd. And it's the hot, hot area. Yeah, $55 is slowing things versus the torrid pace of 2018. But I still suspect they get it done this year. That will mean a lot. It basically puts NM on the global stage. To be doing over a million. Sort of similar to what happened with ND.

Comments: agree completely. Analysts expect the Permian to eventually reach 8 million bopd. Unfettered, North Dakota should be able to produce 2.2 million bopd. For all the interest/emphasis that Oklahoma gets as an "oil state," New Mexico is out-producing Oklahoma (900K vs 600K bopd).

Later, the reader added this:

If you want to compare Oklahoma and New Mexico, there is a nice visualization on the EIA website:

• https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbblpd_m.htm 
• click on US, to deselect that line, and click on NM and OK to select those lines

Oklahoma and New Mexico were pretty similar in 2009 and for several years. Oklahoma a little more than New Mexico, but even a few occasional months where New Mexico was more.

After January, 2018, the two states separated.

During the January, 2018 - May, 2019 period, New Mexico added 362 thousand bopd (538,900). For the same period, Oklahoma only added 73,000 (530,603).

This is why New Mexico is now in the 'bout a million club (as sole member).

And that's why OK is still in the 'bout a half million club (with AK, CA, and CO).