The reader sees four iconic US "state" oil production records that may (likely will) be set in 2019:Comments: agree completely. Analysts expect the Permian to eventually reach 8 million bopd. Unfettered, North Dakota should be able to produce 2.2 million bopd. For all the interest/emphasis that Oklahoma gets as an "oil state," New Mexico is out-producing Oklahoma (900K vs 600K bopd).
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbblpd_m.htm
1. Texas will break through 5 million bopd. It may happen as soon as the next monthly report. Texas is already at 4.92 million bopd.
2. Federal GOM may break 2 million bopd. The Federal GOM has been as high as 1.982 million bopd (April, 2019). Hurricanes may affect the summer, but there is even a chance that we will sneak by with the June report (comes out end of August, 2019). If not, than perhaps later this fall.
3. North Dakota will break1.5 million bopd. North Dakota has definitely slowed down due to lower prices. That said, the state is showing over 1.4 million bopd. And North Dakota usually gets some summer/fall growth. So there is a decent chance we break through sometime in November or so.
4. New Mexico will break 1 million bopd. New Mexico is already at 0.9 million bopd. And it's the hot, hot area. Yeah, $55 is slowing things versus the torrid pace of 2018. But I still suspect they get it done this year. That will mean a lot. It basically puts NM on the global stage. To be doing over a million. Sort of similar to what happened with ND.
Later, the reader added this:
If you want to compare Oklahoma and New Mexico, there is a nice visualization on the EIA website:
Oklahoma and New Mexico were pretty similar in 2009 and for several years. Oklahoma a little more than New Mexico, but even a few occasional months where New Mexico was more.
- https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbblpd_m.htm
- click on US, to deselect that line, and click on NM and OK to select those lines
After January, 2018, the two states separated.
During the January, 2018 - May, 2019 period, New Mexico added 362 thousand bopd (538,900). For the same period, Oklahoma only added 73,000 (530,603).
This is why New Mexico is now in the 'bout a million club (as sole member).
And that's why OK is still in the 'bout a half million club (with AK, CA, and CO).
If you want to compare OK and NM, there is a nice visualization on the EIA website:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbblpd_m.htm
(Click on US, to deselect that line, and click on NM and OK to select those lines.)
The states were pretty similar in 2009 and for several years. OK a little more than NM, but even a few occasional months where NM was more.
After JAN18, the two states separated. During the JAN18-MAY19 period, NM added 362 thousand bopd (538 -> 900). For the same period, OK only added 73 thousand (530 -> 603). This is why NM is now in the 'bout a million club (as sole member). And why OK is still in the 'bout a half million club (with AK, CA, and CO).
Thank you. Much appreciated. When I get caught up, I will add to the earlier stand-alone post. Much appreciated. I was surprised to see (I must have forgotten) that all these years NM was competing closely with OK for crude oil production numbers.
DeleteI really appreciate how you do the same thing I do, rounding numbers to get a better overall picture.
the lower 48 set a production record this week, but i doubt that anyone mentioned it...
ReplyDeletethe output from wells in the lower 48 states rose by 100,000 barrels per day to a rounded record high of 12,000,000 barrels per day, while there was a 94,000 barrels per day decrease to 339,000 barrels per day in Alaska's oil production, and hence the final rounded national production total that everyone cites was unchanged at 12,300,000 barrels per day...
most of this year, Alaska was adding 500k to the national total...i have no idea what happened in there this week, unless they had a hurricane we didn't hear about..
For reply, see this stand-alone post:
Deletehttps://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2019/08/another-us-crude-oil-production-record.html.