I Just Can't Get Too Excited About All This Tariff Talk -- August 1, 2019

Updates

August 3, 2019:

1. It turns out I was wrong in the original post below when I saia a $2,000 Apple computer could jump 10% to $2,200 due to the new 10% tariff on consumer goods coming from China. In fact, the tariff is based on the "cost of manufacturing" the item, not the retail price. So, if the actual cost of manufacturing the Apple computer is $150 in China, then the additional tariff would be $15. But Apple could still jack up the price to $2,200 blaming it on Trump's tariffs.

2. Countries make money from duties/tariffs. As soon as Trump increase import duty by 10%, China could do the same thing; blame it on Trump (retaliation) and then book the extra duty.

3. In the US, and I bet this is true in most other countries, money raised through duties/tariffs goes directly to the Executive Branch (i.e, the President of the US). The money raised does not go into the General Fund and it is not controlled by Congress. It goes directly to the Executive Branch, and the president decides where to "spend" it. That's why you are not hearing much noise from US farmers regarding tariffs. Trump is sending tariff money to those suffering most, in this case, the farmers. I doubt president is sending much money to Nike and/or Kaepernick. My hunch is Kaepernick does not know this. This also explains the meltdown by the spokesman for the US foot apparel industry last Friday (or whenever it was) on CNBC. 

4. Finally, it's up to the Chinese whether they want to see the 10% increase in tariffs. All they have to do it say they will get to serious negotiations (wink, wink).

Original Post 

 
In round numbers, the GDP of the US is $20 trillion. And increasing every year. By at least 2%. More if the US Congress would get out of the way.

$750 billion trade with China, most of it one way.

750 billion / 20 trillion = 3.75%

Of that 750 billion, maybe 20% in tariffs or $150 billion

$150 billion / $20 trillion = 0.75%

I just can't get too excited about all this tariff talk.

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WTI: $54

It's not like we haven't been here before.

And, we are no longer dependent on OPEC oil.

I just can't get too excited about all this tariff talk.

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The US is incredibly rich and getting richer every day.

How rich are we?

The Democrats running for president promise to send each American $1,000 / month.

The Democrats running for president promise free medical care for all, including free medical care for undocumented "residents." They would promise the same for felons behind bars but such felons already get free medical care. Instead, felons will get the right to vote.

The Democrats running for president promise free college for all, and will "erase" all outstanding student debt.

The Democrats running for president are in favor of open borders.

That's how rich we are.

The Democrats running for president have the math to prove that we can afford all the above.

No one in the mainstream media has been able to prove them wrong.

Even Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman says deficits no longer matter.

I just can't get excited about all this tariff talk.

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How many times in the past year were we told that tariffs would be increased if China-US trade talks went badly?

Earlier this week there was a headline story that China-US trade were going badly.

I don't take the president literally, but I do take him seriously.

I just can't get too excited about all this tariff talk.

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I lost all "faith" in Apple's commitment to the US when on June 28, 2019, its CEO made the decision to move Mac Pro production from the US to China.

Obviously Apple was not worried about tariffs.

A $2,000 Mac Pro will now cost Americans maybe $2,200. My hunch is that competition will keep the Mac Pro from going up in cost due to tariffs. Apple's margins will decrease from 37% to 36.8% but "services" won't be affected.

I just can't get too excited about all this tariff talk.

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Oil plummeted from $58 to $54/bbl in one day.

The price of gasoline should go down next week.

99.9999% of all Americans are going to love cheaper gasoline.

California drivers will send a thank-you note to President Trump; they may even vote for him in 2020.

I just can't get too excited about all this tariff talk.

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The Fed just cut rates for the first time in a decade.

Cheap money.

I just can't get too excited about all this tariff talk.

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Automatic reinvestment of dividends.

I just can't get too excited about all this tariff talk.

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But mostly I'm looking forward to:

• a $1,000 check from the US government every month (actually, for us, a married couple, $2,000 -- that will pay our rent with enough left over for two sushi dinners each month)
• free medical health care
• free Harvard college education for our three granddaughters
• our son-in-law no longer having to pay off his student debt 

And, yes, I just can't get too excited about all this tariff talk.

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And two years from now, we will all be even richer.

A thousand-dollar check to each American each week; free electricity (wind and solar energy); free medical care for the first time in our lives; free college education for all.

I just can't get too excited about all this tariff talk.

I'm simply waiting for 2021 when everything is free and all this talk about tariffs will be a thing of the past.

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How concerned are we about the tariffs?

Drudge does not mention it.

Fox News does not mention it.

The LA Times barely mentions it.

Fake news (NYT and Washington Post) will cover it in nauseating detail, as will CNBC and MSNBC.

I just can't get too excited about all this tariff talk, and apparently neither can Kim Kardashian.

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Absolutely not a bit concerned with all this talk about tariffs.

Oh, to be five years old again.