The Day After, T+44 -- February 15, 2019

Amazon: wow, can you imagine the "Monday-morning quarterbacking" that is now going on in Long Island? Talk about an incredibly prescient article over at The Verge, three months. From the article:

• Rep.-elect Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was one of the lawmakers who voiced their objection to an NYC headquarters,
• the strongest indication of Schumer’s stance came at a press conference yesterday when NYC mayor Bill de Blasio said he had worked closely with Schumer on the deal, and the senator “believes it’s going to be a game changer for our city and our state.” Schumer has made no public statements to that effect.
• State Senator Mike Gianaris said in a joint statement. “It is incumbent upon us to stand up on behalf of the people we represent and that is what we intend to do.”

Mike may want to request assistance from the Witness Protection Program before the weekend is out.

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Miscellaneous

$22 Trillion And counting: Drudge banner: "spending binge worse than under Obama, Bush."

What? Me worry? The dow is up another 350 points in early trading.

Airlines: fighting for survival. Indian Airline on verge of collapse; close to getting a bailout; Jet Airways approves rescue deal to plug $1.2 billion gap.

A380 Superdumbo: collapse. The story that is not being reported. Remember: this is the reason Airbus pulled the plug on the Superdumbo -- United Arab Emirates slashed their orders. That speaks volumes. The Mideast is in deep doo-doo. And lookee here -- Bloomberg via Rigzone:

The oil crash came and went but the debt pile it left across the Gulf is still growing, leaving the region’s energy-dependent economies more vulnerable next time a crisis strikes.

All but debt-free before crude prices nosedived in 2014, many Gulf governments tried to borrow their way through while making only cautious and halting efforts to cut spending and diversify their economies.

Meanwhile, a Saudi-led blockade of Qatar has split the six-state Gulf Cooperation Council and complex regional dynamics mean it’s no longer a foregone conclusion that the strong will bail out the weak with no strings attached.

If oil prices crash again, the pain could be greater than five years ago, raising the risk of a regional recession because governments would have to slash spending while markets would be more reluctant to lend, according to Bloomberg economist Ziad Daoud.

“Gulf economies are more vulnerable to a collapse in oil prices today than during the last rout in 2014,” Daoud said. “Debt is higher, foreign exchange reserves are lower and the chance of pooling resources is smaller. A sharp drop in oil prices could prove more damaging this time around.”

The worst oil crash in a generation was a moment of truth for energy juggernauts around the Gulf, which include the world’s biggest exporters of crude and liquefied natural gas.

After splashing petro-wealth on generous state handouts during more than a decade of surging oil prices, Gulf governments, suddenly cash-strapped, spent the past few years carefully trimming benefits to citizens and cutting subsidies while trying to avoid a popular backlash.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have imposed excise and value-added taxes for the first time. But the prospect of slimming bloated wage bills is fraught with political peril, and they remain the biggest-ticket item on Gulf budgets. [And UAE slashed their big-ticket items, like the Airbus 380.]

While Oman and Bahrain stand out, the experience of the bloc’s two smallest economies might be less an exception than a warning for what could lie ahead if governments don’t diversify -- and fast.