Updates
November 2, 2018: from the reader who probably follows this as closely as anyone, see first comment --
I'm watching two things: 'Daily regional average temperatures and departure from normal' on the dashboard: https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/storage/dashboard/;
and the 8 to 14 day outlook: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/.
Based on those, I expect a larger build next week, maybe another small one for the coming week, before the serious heating season starts.
Original Post
For those just coming to this topic for the first time, see this post first.
In the small print in the narrative below, the EIA notes that there was a "net increase" of 48 Bcf from the previous week. Although small, at least there was a "net increase." A reader suggests that historically, the first weekend in November is the last weekend of the year in which there will be a net increase. After that, NG storage historically declines until the following spring (late March / early April / late April).
The reader suggests that on occasion the "net increase" will continue through the second weekend in November.
In other words, in another week or so, we should know where we stand going into winter.
I want to be enthusiastic, but do not see NG stocks getting higher on the stock exchange, i.e., MDU. Regional?
ReplyDeleteYou are correct, that makes this whole story that much more fascinating. What do the "movers and shakers" know that the rest of seem not to know. I think this is very interesting. And, by the way, it just takes one cold snap, one geo-political event to change things in a very bad way.
ReplyDeletetwo things i'm watching: 'Daily regional average temperatures and departure from normal' on the dashboard: https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/storage/dashboard/
ReplyDeleteand the 8 to 14 day outlook: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/
based on those, i expect a larger build next week, maybe another small one for the coming week, before the serious heating season starts..