US Natural Gas Production, A Random Update -- March 3, 2018

Updates

NOTE: from million tonnes LNG per year (MTPA) to Bcf/d = multiply the former by 0.131584156

March 4, 2018: China became second largest importer of LNG (after Japan) in 2017; Japan 11 Bcf/d; China, 5 Bcf/d; but Japan's and Korean imports have remained steady for years; China's is growing significantly; see EIA data;

March 4, 2018: the world needs a lot more LNG -- Royal Dutch Shell --

• global trade volumes of LNG have doubled since 2005, and will continue to rise
• the US will boast almost 10 billion cfpd of LNG export capacity by the end of 2019
• US will be the third-largest LNG exporter, right behind Australia and Qater
• that alone is amazing, but then consider this: two years ago (2016), the US had less than 1 Bcf/d of export capacity
• Shell says the global supply of LNG won't meet demand
• Shell expects the supply crunch to occur i the early 2020s mostly due to the way buyers/sellers interact
• buyers want smaller, more flexible, shorter (in duration) contracts
• sellers want the opposite to lock in prices / volumes to cover very expensive terminals ($4 billion for Cove Point)
• sellers have responded: smaller trains at Cove Point; floating terminals

March 4, 2018: with regard to the Cove Point comment below, see this Reuters story --

• first vessel carry LNG from newly constructed Cove Point LNG export terminal in Maryland has departed as of Friday (remember all the protesting again Cove Point? with revelations of Russia's meddling in US politics, the dots are starting to connect; I always thought it was Saudi Arabia sponsoring protests against shale, pipelines, natural gas -- nope, it was the Russians; if they dupe people into anti-Hillary demonstrations supporting Bernie Sanders, certainly they could do much more in the energy arena)
• the facility is still undergoing final commissioning
• Cove Point is the second big LNG export terminal in the Lower 48; after Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana which exported its first cargo in February, 2016
• US became an exporter of LNG in 2017 for the first time in 60 years
• the US will become the third largest LNG exporter this year (2018)

Later, 10:32 p.m. CT: see comments --

Regarding LNG and its export ...

Two developments will greatly assist US companies to bypass existing LNG producers, namely modularization and ship-based LNG plants.

Modularization: Tellurian cost to produce 27 mtpa (almost double Yamal [ Russia, Arctic]) is about $16 billion (about half Yamal) using the modularization approach.

Floating LNG: Delfin plans on using FLNGs -- ships -- to greatly lower the price to liquify gas.

Later, 9:59 p.m. CT: see first comment --

The Cove Point MD LNG just shipped its first test cargo of LNG the other day. [Think of all the jobs this "operation" has produced.]

At 750 MMcfd capacity, it will increase US exports a bit.

One year from now, pipelines will be online carrying 10 Bcfd gas out of the Appalachian Basin. This will increase AB (Appalachian Basin) production from 25 to 35 Bcfd ... simply a staggering amount.  [Again, to put that in perspective -- Bloomberg Gadfly points out that the additional 7 billion cfd growth this year is staggering -- imagine multiplying that 7 billion by four or five times -- and that's just one year from now.]

More increases will continue.

People are gonna be shocked at how much gas the US will be producing 5 years from now.

Original Post 

Natural gas, US production, EIA, the graphic:

Bloomberg, the Gadfly, January, 2018:

Again, to repeat, the US will add the equivalent of the entire output of Turkmenistan -- one of the world's largest gas exporters -- in the space of just one year.

According to a google search:

During 2009, Qatar exported over 2.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

From SeekingAlpha, March 2, 2018:

The big fundamental news this week was that Lower 48 production averaged an all-time high of ~78.4 Bcf/d, and LNG exports reached ~4 Bcf/d.

80 billion x 30 days = 2,400 billion cf/month -- compare to  2,427 billion in the EIA graph at the top.

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors, especially dealing with large numbers.

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