Closer Look At Enerplus Infill Cases, NDIC Hearing Dockets, September, 2017

The cases:

• 26116, Enerplus, Four Bears-Bakken, 5 wells on an existing 320-acre unit; McKenzie County
• 26617, Enerplus, Mandaree-Bakken, 11 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; Dunn County
• 26618, Enerplus, Eagle Nest-Bakken, 5 wells on each of two existing 320-acre units; 11 wells one each of six existing 1280-acre units, 66 wells total; Dunn, McKenzie counties
• 26119, Enerplus, South Fork-Bakken, 5 wells on each of two existing 320-acre units; 11 wells on each of four existing 1280-acre units; 54 wells total; Dunn County

The wells:

26116, 5 wells:

• 320-acre unit:
• W/2 of section 20-152-93

26117, 11 wells:

• 1280-acre unit:
• 30/31-149-93

26618, 76 wells:

• 320-acre units, 10 wells:
• W/2 of section 5-148-94
• E/2 of section 16-148-94
• 1280-acre units, 66 wells:
• 25/36-149-95
• 28/33-149-95
• 30/31-149-94
• 1/12-148-94
• 2/11-148-94
• 3/10-148-94

26119, 54 wells:

• 320-acre units, 10 wells:
• W/2 of 4-148-93
• E/2 of 4-148-93
• 1280-acre units, 44 wells:
• 13/14-148-93 (see graphic below)
• 15/16-148-93
• 21/22-148-93
• 23/24-148-93

************************************

************************************

Significance

A reader recently sent me a note suggesting that a major operator in the Bakken was soon to cut back on the number of rigs working in North Dakota. He said that some folks would consider this "scary" for the Bakken.

Maybe. I don't know.

My theory is this. The banks have quit lending to shale operators. They, the shale operators, are on their own now. And for the shale operators, it's all about their balance sheets. In the Bakken alone, there are 850 DUCs and 1,500 wells shut in. Operators can afford to shut down new drilling and still meet their production contracts/quotas. It's very possible their balance sheets will improve immensely simply by cutting back on new drilling ... and then we get back to the discussion of the Red Queen. 

But that doesn't mean the end of the Bakken. When I see an operator looking for 76 more wells in one field, that puts everything into perspective.  And this is going on, month after month.

***************************

Emergency Evacuation 

From Convergence: The Idea At The Heart Of Science, Peter Watson, c. 2016, p. 455.

[The science writer Philip Ball) found a good deal of spontaneous organization in human behavior. For example, people walking down a corridor in opposite directions tend to organize themselves spontaneously into counter-flowing maneuvers.

When trees or other objects are in the middle of the walkways, people spontaneously use them as separation markers, even though nothing is ever specified. [One sees this all the time when walking in airline terminals; think kiosks, etc.]

In a dangerous situation, a fire in a nightclub for example, when people panic and all rush for the exits, this actually increases the amount of time needed to empty the room. Computer simulations of this emergency show that if people move at a calm speed -- less than a meter and a half per second -- they are able to evacuate in an orderly manner.

At speeds greater than this, the people press against one another, and friction takes hold; they become locked shoulder to shoulder, "unable to pass through the door even though it stands open in front of them."

Interestingly, exactly the same thing can happen in a salt shaker even though none of the grains is bigger than the hole.

Although the author did not go on to discuss the emergency evacuation of a commercial airliner, this helps explain how flight attendants can evacuate a plane so quickly. The attendants generally have several minutes to explain to the passengers the nature of the emergency, the plan, and how to proceed once the plane has set down and the emergency doors are opened and the chutes deployed.

I've always wondered if flight attendants are provided the "scientific background" or the psychology of crowd behavior when being taught how to manage the emergency evacuation of a commercial airliner. I still don't know, but certainly that training is based on a scientific foundation.