2Q16 GDP Forecast: 2.5%; Down From 2.9% Earlier -- June 2, 2016

GDP now, updated yesterday:

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.5 percent on June 1, down from 2.9 percent on May 31.

After this morning's construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the forecast for real residential investment growth decreased from 7.9 percent to 4.2 percent, the forecast for real nonresidential structures investment growth decreased from -2.8 percent to -6.5 percent, and the forecast for real government spending growth decreased from 1.2 percent to 0.4 percent.

GDP will be updated again tomorrow. 

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Outrun Change

Last night I had the opportunity to visit some of my favorite blogs. One of them is Outrun Change.

Oh, how interesting... I just went to the site again to get the URL and link it and what a surprise: today's post: guesses on long-term impact of shale revolution. 

Yes, it's a must-read. Seriously.

Anyway, back to what I was going to say.

I do not recall how long Outrun Change has been around, but it seems that it was one of the first blogs I linked. It probably needs to be moved up on my sidebar at the right, along with the other featured linked blogs.

There, done. And for the next few weeks, I've moved "Featured Blogs" up higher on the sidebar.

Outrun Change has seven tabs at the top. Three of them relate to Peak Oil. Really, really good. It's nice to have this history, these archives.

Another tab takes one to a long piece on "improvements in our standard of living and the Price of Everything." It speaks to the choir, but the book review/book report is well worth the read.

Another tab is "Peering Forward." This is the kind of essay that needs to be updated. It would be interesting to see the writer's observations over time with regard to "what comes next." I'm trying to do that at "The Next Big Thing" but it is difficult. Why? Outrun Change suggests it is because things are moving so quickly now.

Right now, if I had to name those who seem to be activist futurists, these names come to mind:

• Jeff Bezos -- definitely, succeeding beyond expectations
• Tim Cook -- most likely, but is he a futurist, or simply in the right place at the right time?
• Mark Zuckerberg -- perhaps; evolving, no longer a revolution
• the guys over at Google -- most likely
• Barack Obama -- definitely, in the arena of creeping socialism
• Vladimir Putin -- definitely, in the arena of "empire building"/ Realpolitik
• Elon Musk -- definitely, but living on the edge

Look at that list. Some of those will be right on target; others will flame out, crash and burn.

Take My Breath Away, Berlin