Some Random Thoughts On The Economy -- Not Ready For Prime Time -- December 11, 2015

1. It amazes me that mainstream media and especially Jim Cramer never mention the #1 drag on the economy: health care. It comprises 1/6th of the US economy and it affects Americans' wallets every month.

2. It amazes me that mainstream media and especially Jim Cramer never mention the #2 drag on the economy is the EPA and its regulations.

3. It amazes me that mainstream media and especially Jim Cramer never mention the #3 drag on the economy: anarchists, socialists, no-growth nuts like Sanders and Pocahontas. The Keystone XL would have been built years ago, and it looks like two Bakken pipelines will not be built because of Iowa, Minnesota.

4. It amazes me that mainstream media and especially Jim Cramer never mention the #4 drag on the economy: the unemployed -- not paying taxes and getting benefits instead -- and the reasons for the unemployed.

5. It amazes me that the mainstream media and especially Jim Cramer never mention the huge underground economy -- all the illegal immigrants that are working "off the books." They don't pay into the system (taxes, SS) and they still visit emergency rooms when necessary (and someone else pays for their medical care).

6. New York: bans fracking despite what they see in Pennsylvania.

7. The economic malaise begins at the White House. Obama is an ideologue and that malaise trickles down through the entire American psyche. He's the Jimmy Carter of the 21st century.

8. Guns? Even if every American bought a gun, that's a one-time expense. Health care at $750/month/person (paid for by a combination of individuals, employers, tax breaks, etc) is a huge, huge drain. As for me down here in Texas, I assume guns are flying off the shelves but I bet not one person in my apartment complex has bought a gun this year.

9. There was an article yesterday that analysts/businesses were amazed that people weren't spending all their gasoline savings on other stuff. I've gone through the math before: the savings at the pump works out to about $50/month -- one meal for two at Olive Garden. I know about the $50 for two at Olive Garden -- I took my granddaughter there -- just the two of us last week -- $52 (that included a 20% tip). There are no gasoline savings in the biggest retail state in the country: California. There/their gasoline is as expensive as ever.

10. There's an article today that UPS cannot keep up with all the on-line ordering. That doesn't necessarily mean more money is being spent this holiday season; it might simply be a switch from big box stores to on-line. However, UPS says it is not going to do what it did in 2013 when they took a loss of $200 million by over-hiring. This year, they hired more for the holiday season, but well below what they need. Not said in the article, was that the costs associated with each new hire was not worth it to hire more. Bad PR is better than big financial losses.

11. I don't think 2016 will be all that great if they are thinking it will be based on savings from gasoline. That's a pretty superficial view of the world.

12. On Wall Street, I assume the computers run most of the trading these days. And I assume the algorithms have an "x" for the interest rate. I assume the "x" has been increased in the equation and the computer programs won't see that as a buy signal.

13. The country itself is Balkanized economically. I assume much of the industrial midwest is still in a depression whereas Texas and California (tech, Silicon Valley) are doing very, very well.