Monday, October 12, 2015, Columbus Day

Active rigs:

	10/12/2015	10/12/2014	10/12/2013	10/12/2012	10/12/2011
Active Rigs	68	190	184	192	197

RBN Energy: infrastructure overbuilt in the Niobrara?

Crude production in the Niobrara shale formation is focused on two areas, the Denver-Julesburg (DJ) Basin in Northeast Colorado and the Powder River Basin (PRB) in Wyoming. Production has expanded in both basins (current output is about 435 Mb/d according to the Energy Information Administration) but much of the recent volume growth has come from the DJ basin.

Expectations as recently as last year that production would expand to over 700 Mb/d in the next 4 years have been tempered by the crude price crash. A couple of large pipeline projects prompted last year by those production expectations have been cancelled since but others are still being built. Today we assess crude takeaway infrastructure in the DJ basin.

We described these new projects last October showing all the projects – although (as we shall see) some have now been cancelled. 

In the northern part of the play crude flows into the region from Canada on the Spectra Express and from the Bakken on the Bridger Butte Loop and Kinder Morgan Double H pipelines.
Last year Enterprise Product Partners proposed the new-build 340 Mb/d Bakken to Cushing (BTC) pipeline that would ship crude from the Bakken as well as the PRB. Spectra Energy proposed a new 400 Mb/d pipeline from Guernsey, WY to Patoka. 

The newly completed Tallgrass Pony Express pipeline now carries up to 330 Mb/d from Guernsey to Cushing. Pony Express also has a 90 Mb/d lateral in Colorado that serves the southern part of the play that came online in April 2015 serving the DJ basin. Also serving the DJ basin is the 150 Mb/d SemGroup White Cliffs pipeline to Cushing that is expanding this month (October 2015) by 65 Mb/d to a total 215 Mb/d. SemGroup also talked to shippers last year about building a twin pipeline on the same route to double the White Cliffs capacity.

Two additional new projects announced in 2014 from the DJ to Cushing are the NGL Energy Grand Mesa project (220 Mb/d) and the Magellan Midstream Partners Saddlehorn pipeline (200 Mb/d).

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Chevy Volt Vs Tesla

Seeking Alpha. Some interesting trivia. It looks like the Tesla will be the only luxury car that doesn't have CarPlay. Provides a bit of background to recent comments by Elon Musk.

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Trainwreck

Below 10 Million Enrolled

The New York Times is reporting:

On Nov. 1, a new sign-up period for health insurance under the Affordable Care Act will begin, and insurers, health care providers and enrollment groups are ramping up campaigns to encourage 10.5 million eligible uninsured people to buy policies. But even as those efforts begin, the public insurance exchanges, also known as marketplaces, created by the law are facing another challenge: keeping the customers they already have.

About 9.9 million people were enrolled in the federal and state marketplaces at the end of June, a drop of about 15 percent from the 11.7 million who the Obama administration said selected plans during the open enrollment period that ended in February.

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Wildcards (in progress)

2016 US presidential race: three wildcards

• will Donald Trump stay the distance?
• will Joe Biden jump in?
• will Hillary sustain a medical setback?

Mideast: one wildcard

• will Russia establish a permanent presence in Syria?