GDP Now -- May 20, 2015

The Federal Reserve Board of Atlanta:

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2015 was 0.7 percent on May 19, unchanged from May 13.

The nowcast for second-quarter real business fixed investment growth fell from −0.6 percent to −2.3 percent following last Friday's industrial production release from the Federal Reserve.

The nowcast for second-quarter real residential investment growth increased from 1.3 percent to 3.6 percent following this morning's housing starts release from the U.S. Census Bureau.

CNBC asks why "we" can't shake off the Great Recession despite a gazillion dollars in stimulus? Blame it on globalization, not the Obama administration, the most anti-business administration in my lifetime:

In the first quarter, the GDP growth rate fell to +0.2 percent annualized, from an average of +2.4 percent during 2014. Trade data that emerged subsequently indicates that the first quarter growth rate will be revised downward into negative territory and that the second quarter will prove disappointing as well.

But Wall Street is doing just fine. Both the Dow and the NASDAQ are flirting with new highs. 

Main Street, not so well. CNBC is also reporting that "you are about to be paying highest gas prices of the year." No Keystone XL and many other pipelines sandbagged by Luddites. By the way, this is not an investment site, but if the cost of your raw material (crude oil) is getting cheaper and cheaper, and the price consumers are willing to pay for your finished product (gasoline and diesel) it only seems that your profit margin should be surging. Just saying. Warren Buffett, it was reported earlier today, recently bought a truckload of PSX. Just saying.

[I posted that earlier; then took the granddaughters to soccer and water polo. I came back and found this EIA "energy cookie" that I had not seen earlier, sort of says what I just said above:

Gasoline crack spreads in the United States, especially on the U.S. East Coast, have reached several-year highs in recent months. Crack spreads, which reflect the difference between wholesale product prices and crude oil prices, are a good indicator of refiner profitability. --- EIA

Crack spreads can be found here.