Update On Kashagan -- October 23, 2014

Rigzone is reporting (some figures rounded):

Kazakhstan expects annual oil output to reach as high as 100 million tonnes after 2020 when the giant Kashagan oilfield resumes pumping compared with less than 82 million this year.

Kazakhstan, already the second-largest oil producer after Russia among the former Soviet states, aims to produce 90 million to 100 million tonnes of oil starting in the third decade of this century

The Kazakh government expects output to total 82 million tonnes this year and next.

Kazakhstan produced 81.7 million tonnes in 2013.

For January to September, output fell to 60 million tonnes from 60.5 million in the same period of 2013.

Production at the Kashagan reservoir, the world's biggest oil find in recent times, started in September last year but was halted just a few weeks later after the discovery of gas leaks in the pipeline network of the $50 billion project. Replacing the pipelines at the oilfield, which lies in the Caspian Sea off western Kazakhstan, will cost another $1.6 billion to $3.6 billion.

Mirzagaliyev confirmed earlier official estimates that Kashagan's production could restart in the second half of 2016.

The conversion factor varies based on the specific gravity of the particular petroleum under discussion, but as a rough approximation there are 7 boe in one metric tonne.

100 million tonnes * 7 = 700 million boe annually / 365 = 2 million bbls/day.

Note: I often make simple arithmetic errors. If this information is important to you, go to the linked source.

The delta between current production of about 80 million tonnes now and 100 million tonnes when Kashagan comes on line is 20 million tonnes, or about 140 million boe, about 400,000 boe/day.

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Global Warming

Climate Change

Extreme Weather

Whatever

The (London) Express is reporting:

John Coleman, who co-founded the Weather Channel, shocked academics by insisting the theory of man-made climate change was no longer scientifically credible. 

Instead, what 'little evidence' there is for rising global temperatures points to a 'natural phenomenon' within a developing eco-system.

In an open letter attacking the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, he wrote:

• "The ocean is not rising significantly.

• "The polar ice is increasing, not melting away. Polar Bears are increasing in number.

• "Heat waves have actually diminished, not increased. There is not an uptick in the number or strength of storms (in fact storms are diminishing).

• "I have studied this topic seriously for years. It has become a political and environment agenda item, but the science is not valid."

I don't think this story is particularly new; I've seen variations of this story for some time now, I believe.