Friday, October 17, 2014

Off The Net For Awhile

Speaking of Ebola, which we weren't, from Wiki:
From 1976 (when it was first identified) through 2013, the World Health Organization reported a total of 1,716 cases. The largest outbreak to date is the ongoing 2014 West African Ebola outbreak, which is currently affecting Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia. As of 15 October 2014, 8,998 suspected cases resulting in the deaths of 4,493 have been reported.
From 1976 to through 2013, there were a total of 1,716 case. Almost 40 years and less than 2,000 cases.

Then, all of a sudden, an outbreak that seems to be significantly different. Again, according to wiki:
An epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) is ongoing in certain West African countries. It began in Guinea in December 2013, then spread to Liberia and Sierra Leone. Twenty additional cases occurred in Nigeria and were preliminarily contained, and one case in Senegal was contained and the outbreak there declared over on 17 October.
Cases of secondary infections of medical workers in the United States and Spain occurred, neither of which has yet spread to the general population.
As of 15 October 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO), the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), OCHA and local governments reported a total of 8,998 suspected cases and 4,493 deaths (4,995 cases and 2,729 deaths having been laboratory confirmed), though the WHO believes that this substantially understates the magnitude of the outbreak with possibly 2.5 times as many cases as have been reported.
On 14 October, during a news conference in Geneva, the assistant director-general of the WHO stated that there could be as many as 10,000 new Ebola cases per week by December 2014.
The article then goes on to "blame" almost everything, and everyone except George W. Bush, for the magnitude of this outbreak.

When I go through the list of things that the WHO explains why this epidemic is worse than before, the excuses seem to be the same things that existed between 1976 and 2013. There seems to be nothing new under the sun.

The question I don't hear anyone asking: is there something different about the Ebola virus this time, and if so, what is it?

Less than 2,000 cases from 1976 until last year. Now, in less than 10 months, with a much better understanding of the disease, with much better medical care in place, and a UN Ebola response team (LOL), one has to ask the question, has the transmission of the Ebola virus changed in some way?

Two nurses who were trained in "universal precautions" became infected -- somehow this does not make sense.  With possibly 22,495 cases so far (8,998 x 2.5) in less than a year, compared to less than 2,000 total cases over almost 40 years up until 2013 ..... bothersome.

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