The Director's cut is out:
Director's Cut, PDF here.
Production hits all-time high in North Dakota (again):
July, 2012, oil: 674,066 bopd (new all-time high)
June, 2012, oil: 660,332 bopd
July, 2012, producing wells: 7,467 (new all-time high)
June, 2012, producing wells: 7,352
Permitting (all time high: 245, 2 Nov 10)
July, 2012: 266 drilling (new all-time high)
June, 2012: 204 drilling
Pricing
July, 2012: sweet crude, $71.13
June, 2012: sweet crude, $72.58
May, 2012: sweet crude, $79.44
April, 2012: sweet crude, $78.17
Mar, 2012: sweet crude, $76.29
Feb, 2012: sweet crude, $83.26
Jan, 2012: sweet crude, $88.09
Dec, 2011: sweet crude, $88.75
Nov, 2011: sweet crude, $88.54
Director's comments includes this most alarming phrase: "...and uncertainty surrounding future federal policies on hydraulic fracturing is impacting capital investment decisions." [Comment: with gasoline costing $4.00/gallon, can there be anything so crazy as holding the fracking sword of Damocles over the states which seem to be doing a fine job of regulating the industry? For North Dakota, at least, the proof is in the pudding: fracking since the 1980's and things seem to be working fairly well. Several migratory ducks died during some of the worst spring flooding in history -- back in 2010 -- but that was not related to fracking. Again, it will be a real debacle if the President is given a mandate to regulate fracking nationwide.]
Crude oil takeaway via pipeline is now less than 45% of daily production, but rail and truck transportation are adequate to keep up with near-term production projections.
The North Dakota Sweet posted price basis is now about 10% below NYMEX-WTI and NYMEX-WTI is still about 18% below Brent. This is resulting in more North Dakota crude oil transported on rail to destinations that pay Brent price.
Daily natural gas production is increasing at a slightly faster rate than oil production. This indicates that gas/oil ratios may be increasing and more gathering and processing capacity will be needed.
Note: I have not seen an explanation why natural gas production might be increasing in the Bakken. Just one of those things? The note said "production" so it's not a matter of less flaring/more in pipelines.
Gas helps Carry Oil out. Pressure declines with production. Harder to carry oil. Carry less oil. Leave it behind.
ReplyDeleteLower pressure lowers oil ratio.
At least sometimes.
Anon 1
I think another factor of the decreasing rig count is that numerous leases are now "held by production" but just across the border in MT, numerous leases are not HBP and slowly reaching expiration dates. I noticed the Director states that MT rig count holds steady and I look for that count to increase over the next year.
ReplyDeleteCan't disagree.
Delete