Talkin' Frackin' -- What the Tea Leaves Are Telling Me -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Starting to connect some dots.

First, the fracking backlog which I've been talking about since July, I suppose. It seems about one out of two, or even two out of three wells coming off the confidential list are not completed, and go on to the DRL list, waiting to be fracked.

Second, the challenge of finding fracking sand. There are some great sources in Wisconsin but folks there are trying to stop the mining. This link, however, is good news. Also this note from a message board:

I live near La Crosse, Wisconsin. There is a sand company (Unimin) buying up land around here like you wouldn't believe. Where is it going? The Bakken. I guess in sand terms, we have the type of sand the fracking calls for. There are two (2) fairly large sand mountains outside of town. Unimin has built railroad tracks to two very large sand cribs (if you will). Each one opens their shoot and fills the rail cars up. These companies are paying up to $9,000/acre. One township had some long meetings to let them build roads to their sand land they bought. I believe Unimin offered the township dollars for a length of time to be paid to the township. A win-win situation. It sure looks like the Bakken is alive and kicking!

Third, the cost of ceramic proppants with a great link here. This explains a $10 million KOG well and a $6 million WLL well.  This Reuters article also talks about the high price of trucking (the word "gouging" was not used, but one can read between the lines).

Fourth: the high cost of living. I am hearing that some oil workers unable to pay the high of living (rent), are going back to Texas and Louisiana. There are other opportunities there. The folks from Idaho and Wisconsin have a worse economy in their home states and are more likely to stay.

Fifth: moratorium on man-camps in Williston and recent no-vote on new 600-bed man-camp in Dickinson't.

Sixth: the number of active drilling rigs continues to drop, which I started noticing about a week ago, despite great weather.

It all suggests to me that drillers are going to slow down a bit, wait for some things to get back in balance.

Good luck to all.