Seeking Alpha.com response here.
Comments later.
Reminder: this is where I track the recent "bear raid" on NOG.
Actually, I've decided no additional comments. Folks with much better understanding of the Bakken and much better financial training have been providing comments pro and con throughout the day, and I've added the links.
I believe I have all the links up to date.
I've seen this movie before...so I sold all my NOG and am waiting for the Bear Raid to end. It doesn't matter if the shorts are wrong, the increase in selling is applying downward pressue on the pps...I'm looking for around $20 to re-enter...short interest rose over the last month from 4.66m to 6.67m shares.
ReplyDeleteWe'll see how this plays out...I hope I'm wrong, & the price rockets to $40 and the shorts get burned.
For now, I'm content to be a spectator.
As soon as the story hit, agile traders were smart to immediately take their profits and watch where this was headed.
ReplyDeleteThese are small companies with skittish investors, and it doesn't take much to cause a sell-off.
Once the dust settles, it will be an opportunity to buy back in (acquiring more shares for same amount of money) or move away completely if opportunities better elsewhere.
This is not an investment site, so I didn't make recommendations one way or the other when the story came out. As a retail investor, you did exactly the right thing. Another suggestion: stop/loss orders.
I personally won't use S/L orders. I feel you are inviting the MM to lower the pps to scoop up your shares...I've seen THAT movie too many times, tho my favorite episode was when
ReplyDeleteDendreon(DNDN), 2 minutes before they announced FDA approval, the stock tanked from the 20's to 7.50 in a matter of seconds...all S/L orders were harvested...the Captured and Complicit SEC(google 'Deep Capture') let the trades stand.
The ability for Hedge Funds to coordinate Bear Raids is rather scary...and it usually begins with Short-commentary articles such as this. (I highly reccommend you Google 'Deep Capture').
So, I'll wait for a great buying opp I think is coming.
With regard to Stop/Loss orders, I can't argue.
ReplyDeleteFor traders, watching the market like a hawk is much more important. But for long term investors who buy and accumulate, who don't watch the market on a regular basis, stop/loss has its place. There are times when I can go a week (or longer) without watching the market if I'm traveling (or when I was deployed in the military).
So many different ways to lose money on the market. Smile.
You are obviously a seasoned, experienced trader. Thank you for the tip on "Deep Capture."
Bits of information come out that kind of pinch a nerve but you can't quite figure out why. You just know it doesn't sit right in your brain. Deep Capture was very informative. Thank you for the link.
ReplyDeleteIt's now a worry to know that they have taken note of the Bakken and ND. All that money to go after. I hope every decision maker has their radar up and can avoid falling prey to crooks.
You are absolutely correct. Now that the Bakken has been "noticed," it becomes a target.
ReplyDeleteFolks who have been following the Bakken since the beginning have the advantage of having a better idea of what's going on. I still maintain the financial analysts have great difficult valuing companies in the Bakken.
Right now, companies with aggressive CAPEX programs may actually lose money on a quarterly basis; it costs a lot of money to put those wells in but at some point, things will start to level off: less money being spent to put in more wells, and still a huge cash flow from all the wells that will produce up to 30 years.
In addition, the price of oil at $104 seems to be sustainable, again, something that wasn't factored into the Bakken two years ago.