If Goldman's forecast is correct, it would mark the largest economic expansion for the U.S. in generations.
- Not only would 8% annual growth denote a stupendous turnaround from the coronavirus pandemic, it would significantly outpace the firm's growth expectations for the U.S. from as recently as late 2020.
What they're saying: "We have raised our GDP forecast to reflect the latest fiscal policy news and now expect 8% growth in 2021 (Q4/Q4) and an unemployment rate of 4% at end-2021 — the lowest among consensus forecasts—that falls to 3.5% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023," Goldman said in the note.
- "But we expect inflation dynamics to mirror those last cycle, and therefore expect this forecast to translate to only 2.1% core PCE inflation in 2023."
Between the lines: Goldman has been exceptionally bullish on the prospects for U.S. growth all year, far outpacing most other Wall Street banks' expectations.
- The average growth expectation among Wall Street analysts is 4.7%, according to FactSet, and was 3.9% as recently as November.
- Further, economic growth of 8% with inflation reaching just 2.1% would be almost unprecedented.
By the numbers: A growth of 8% this year would put U.S. GDP at around $22.6 trillion, marking a full recovery after the economy shrank 4.1% in 2020.
- U.S. GDP hasn't grown 8% in a year since 1951, when it totaled $356 billion.
More at the link.
By the way, Janet Yellen is also predicting full employment by the end of 2021.
*********************************
Market Today
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Subscribers: There was a report recently that Disney surpassed its projection of new subscribers by a huge number. Today, it's ATT. Link here.
AT&T recently provided its business and financial outlook, wherein the telecom company raised its long-term growth forecast for Home Box Office subscribers on the back of its international expansion.
AT&T said that it expects worldwide subscribers for HBO and HBO Max to reach 120-150 million by the end of 2025, which is significantly higher than its previous forecast of 75-90 million subscribers. Furthermore, it now expects revenues from the HBO business to more than double over the next five years.
For 2021, AT&T expects to end the year with a subscriber base of 67-70 million for HBO and HBO Max, reflecting year-over-year growth in the range of 9.8%-14.8%.
The company reiterated its consolidated revenue growth outlook of around 1%. Moreover, adjusted EPS is expected to remain stable compared to 2020. AT&T said that the international expansion of HBO Max and the launch of an advertising-supported version of HBO Max is likely to drive its subscriber base and revenues in 2021.
BRK-B: the ultimate Warren Buffett stock is near its "buy zone." Link at Investor's Business Daily.
Another record:
Energy yields: Pioneer Resources' new variable dividend policy could quadruple its yield -- Mike Fitzsimmons.
- Pioneer has 920,000 net acres in the core of the Permian Basin - none of which is on Federal land.
- the recent Parsley acquisition will lead to additional cost synergies and operational efficiencies.
- PXD delivered $294 million of FCF in Q4 and is initiating a variable dividend plan that will return ~75% of FCF to ordinary shareholders.
- as a result, and given WTI at $55-$60/bbl, PXD's yield could easily rise from the current 1.4% to a range of 5-6%.
Hoping: I hope Biden doesn't wimp out on his federal leasing ban. Period. Dot. But he will.
**************************************
The Apple Page
Apple overtook Samsung to become world's largest smartphone maker in 4Q20. Link here.
Apple produced 77.6 million iPhones units in the fourth quarter of 2020, 69.8 million of which were iPhone 12 models, helping the company overtake Samsung to become the top global smartphone brand.
The analysts' latest report says Apple sold 10 million more phones than its biggest rival over the quarter, with Samsung selling 67 million phones, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 14%. By contrast, Apple recorded an 85% increase QoQ, driven in part by Apple's support for 5G across its latest smartphone lineup and its adoption of an aggressive pricing strategy.
**************************************
Mark Perry's All-Chart Page
**************************************
The Media Page
No comments:
Post a Comment