Wednesday, July 23, 2025

Intel Reports Tomorrow -- 4:00 P.M. CT -- A Lot Of Folks Will Be Watching -- July 23, 2025

Locator: 48815INTEL.

Intel better hope the market has a great day tomorrow. Intel is going to ride the coattails of whatever the tech market does tomorrow. No matter what Intel reports tomorrow, share price will be determined by:

  • Intel's guidance during the conference call; and,
  • sentiment for the overall microchip market.

Links everywhere. This is a nice summary of Intel's history since the original iPhone was introduced. That was in 2006, when Intel passed on the opportunity to supply chips for the Apple phone which had not yet been introduced. No doubt Steve Jobs was as secretive and as ruthless as ever to get the best deal possible. Whatever. Intel passed on the opportunity in 2006. Based on some stories it sounds like Intel didn't necessarily say "no." Intel simply didn't get back to Steve Jobs. Internally, Intel felt they couldn't afford to be distracted by the iPhone. They had their own strategic plan. 

If you want that story from a trusted source, or simply enjoy schadenfreude, here's the prompt for ChatGPT:

When the iPhone was introduced, it is said Intel passed on providing chips for the iPhone. Is that true and if true about what year was that?

Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone in January 2007. Apple ended up choosing Samsung to manufacture its ARM-based chips. 

Anyway, all of that for background to this link. The link is great; Moz Farooque tells a great story, but the ads make it a mess and it's simply easier to go to ChatGPT.

Perhaps more later. This blog was interrupted. I may or may not complete it. 

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Politics

I never knew that Washington had gotten this crazy.

Link here.

Re-Posting As A Stand-Alone -- Valero -- California -- July 23, 2025

Locator: 48814REFINERY.

Link here.

I don't think there's a governor today that has marketed himself as much as Governor Gavin Newsom has as a "greenie." Now, planning to run for president in 2027 / 2028, there's a fly in the ointment: really, really high gasoline prices in California next summer, 2026.

This will likely be a stand-alone post. The link was sent to me by a reader. Thank you. I probably would have eventually gotten to it but I do miss a lot of things so I appreciate the link.

California officials are stepping into the fray to urgently find a buyer for Valero’s Benicia refinery before its scheduled closure in April 2026, a rare move that underscores the state’s growing anxiety over fuel security and price volatility. According to Reuters, in an exclusive report on Wednesday, the state has opened talks with potential buyers, including HF Sinclair and at least one unnamed European energy firm, to take over the Bay Area facility and preserve in-state refining capacity.

The 149,000 barrels-per-day refinery is one of just 10 refineries still operating in California. Its shutdown, combined with the planned 2026 closure of Valero’s Wilmington facility in Los Angeles County, could reduce the state’s gasoline and diesel production by nearly 17%.

In a position of desperation, the California Energy Commission is leading the effort to broker a deal, with support from the governor’s office. The move is an attempt to avoid severe market disruptions and cushion consumers from steep price spikes.

The stakes are particularly high. State modeling suggests that removing Benicia from the refining system could push pump prices toward $8 per gallon, particularly during summer demand peaks. Analysts warn that the closures could also reduce fuel inventories and strain supply chains across the western U.S.

As KQED reported earlier this month, Benicia city officials were blindsided by Valero’s June 28, 2025, announcement. Local leaders fear the loss of one of their top employers and taxpayers, Benicia receives roughly 40% of its general fund from refinery-linked revenues.

The way I read this, it's not going to come about without huge political cost and at the end of the day, the writing is on the wall for California: gasoline is only going to get more expensive going forward regardless of whether this refinery "survives." Who knows? Valero is now in a incredibly great position. What if Valero decides to slow-roll the sale or even suggest that it has decided to keep the refinery but with huge give-backs, tax-breaks, etc., from the state. This could get very interesting very, very fast. 

Scheduled for closure in April next spring, what might happen if a deal can't be closed by June, and the refinery goes through a typical planned shutdown and then re-start in late September. Wow, that would be a "hot" summer for the governor. 

My hunch: everyone will be adults and a solution will be found.

One New Permit; Four Permits Renewed; One Permit Canceled; Six DUCs Reported As Completed -- July 23, 2025

Locator: 48813B.

BofA: increases dividend; announces buyback.

Market: NASDAQ -- first close above 21K. 

Cramer:

  • Japanese trade deal: biggest deal ever:
    • Japan to invest $550 billion in US
    • Japan to open its market to US cars, trucks, rice
    • 15% on all Japanese imports, including cars
    • could be model for those countries that still don't have trade deal with the US

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Poster Governor For Green Energy Panics

Link here.

I don't think there's a governor today that has marketed himself as much as Governor Gavin Newsom has as a "greenie." Now, planning to run for president in 2027 / 2028, there's a fly in the ointment: really, really high gasoline prices in California next summer, 2026.

This will likely be a stand-alone post. The link was sent to me by a reader. Thank you. I probably would hhave eventually gotten to it but I do miss a lot of things so I appreciate the link.

California officials are stepping into the fray to urgently find a buyer for Valero’s Benicia refinery before its scheduled closure in April 2026, a rare move that underscores the state’s growing anxiety over fuel security and price volatility. According to Reuters, in an exclusive report on Wednesday, the state has opened talks with potential buyers, including HF Sinclair and at least one unnamed European energy firm, to take over the Bay Area facility and preserve in-state refining capacity.

The 149,000 barrels-per-day refinery is one of just 10 refineries still operating in California. Its shutdown, combined with the planned 2026 closure of Valero’s Wilmington facility in Los Angeles County, could reduce the state’s gasoline and diesel production by nearly 17%.

In a position of desperation, the California Energy Commission is leading the effort to broker a deal, with support from the governor’s office. The move is an attempt to avoid severe market disruptions and cushion consumers from steep price spikes.

The stakes are particularly high. State modeling suggests that removing Benicia from the refining system could push pump prices toward $8 per gallon, particularly during summer demand peaks. Analysts warn that the closures could also reduce fuel inventories and strain supply chains across the western U.S.

As KQED reported earlier this month, Benicia city officials were blindsided by Valero’s June 28, 2025, announcement. Local leaders fear the loss of one of their top employers and taxpayers, Benicia receives roughly 40% of its general fund from refinery-linked revenues.

The way I read this, it's not going to come about without huge political cost and at the end of the day, the writing is on the wall for California: gasoline is only going to get more expensive going forward regardless of whether this refinery "survives." Who knows? Valero is now in a incredibly great position. What if Valero decides to slow-roll the sale or even suggest that it has decided to keep the refinery but with huge give-backs, tax-breaks, etc., from the state. This could get very interesting very, very fast. 

Scheduled for closure in April next spring, what might happen if a deal can't be closed by June, and the refinery goes through a typical planned shutdown and then re-start in late September. Wow, that would be a "hot" summer for the governor. 

My hunch: everyone will be adults and a solution will be found.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI:

Active rigs: 34.

One new permit, #42153:

  • Operator: Neptune Operating
  • Field: Rawson (McKenzie County)
  • Comments:
    • Neptune Operating has a permit for a Gullickson well, SESE 36-150-101, 
      • to be sited 313 FSL and 1180 FEL.

Four permits renewed:

  • Lime Rock (3): three Mariner permits, Dimond oil field, Burke County;
  • CLR: one Langved permit, Beaver Lodge, Williams County;

One permit canceled:

  • BR: #31197, Abersom, McKenzie County;

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 35583, 990, XTO, Halverson 13X-33CXD, Williams County;
  • 35586, 1,496, XTO, Halverson 13X-33A, Williams County;
  • 40294, 0, BR, Nordeng 2B TFH, McKenzie County;
  • 41248, 1,282, CLR, Thronson FIU 13-28H1, Mountrail County;
  • 41251, 1,311, CLR, Thronson FIU 12-28HSL, Mountrail County;
  • 41252, 1,255, CLR, Sorenson 12-21HSL2, Mountrail County;


Tesla: Miss On Top Line And Bottom Line -- July 23, 2025

Locator: 48812TESLA.

Tesla stock is actually up slightly after the report.

Compare with GOOG.

MOJO, FOMO, YOLO and a cult following.

Google Trading Higher -- Surging -- Then Drops Back -- July 23, 2025

Locator: 48812GOOG. 

Updates

July 24, 2025: Google spooks investors with $85 billion spend rate AI. When earning came out, Google shares surged on how well Google had done. Then, when it became known that Google would spend $85 billion on AI, investors were spooked and GOOG dropped. Many story lines:

  • more evidence that AI is here to stay and only going to grow bigger;
  • a lot of tech companies. have had big runs; investors / traders use these opportunities to take profits;
  • the amount of money needed to succeed in AI is its own moat
  • drilling down on Google suggests it is doing surprisingly well in light of chatbots
  • I can't stress enough how long this AI revolution will continue. Link here. There will be a lot of folks -- in fact "all" folks who click on that link will see how long that post is and will reply: TLDR.

Original Post

Revenue:  $96.43 billion vs $94 billion.

EPS:  $2.31 vs. $2.18 estimate.

Holy mackerel

Cloud revenue above estimates.

Cloud revenue: $13.62 billion vs $13.1 billion.

Now GOOG turns negative.

It will now depend on the conference call. 

AI alive and well. It's not going to go away. More and more AI is coming back to the US.