Thursday, October 17, 2024

Heat Pumps -- October 17, 2024

Locator: 48616TRANE.

Trane. Wiki.

From google's generative AI:


For the archives. Something to think about.

Trane Technologies: shares have doubled in the past year. TT on the NYSE. A component of the S&P 500.

Dots to connect:


Intel -- The Spin-Offs Begin -- October 17, 2024

Locator: 48615INTEL.

Link here.

From the linked article:

Intel is looking to sell at least a minority stake in its Altera unit in a transaction that would raise several billion dollars in cash for the struggling chipmaker.
Intel is looking for a deal that values Altera at around $17 billion, said the people, who requested anonymity to speak freely about confidential information. Intel purchased Altera for $16.7 billion in 2015.

A representative for Intel declined to comment. The sale process represents an abrupt change from Intel’s prior commentary on Altera. As recently last month, CEO Pat Gelsinger said that Intel’s leadership considered the business to be a core part of Intel’s future.
Intel has previously said it could look to monetize Altera business through an IPO, possibly as soon as 2026. But the idea of taking strategic or private equity investment would be a marked acceleration of those plans.

One of several things going on, or possibly a combination:

  • Intel is burning through cash at a dangerous pace.
  • Intel needs a lot more cash to carry out plans to build more foundries overseas that have been "put on hold."
  • Intel needs cash -- period -- to even begin to compete with the other magnificent seven whose pockets are very, very deep. Another one of the magnificent seven joined the trillion-dollar club today.

Intel (INTC) market cap: <$100 billion.

Interestingly, "generative AI" suggests that Intel was looking to spin off Altera as far back as 2023:

But if a month ago, Altera was considered a core part of Intel's future or tonight the CEO is willing to spin it off -- speaks volumes. 

From google's generative AI:

Intel selling off Altera, selling off its "seed corn."

Look at the numbers.

Cash burn rate: $12 billion / annum -- and it's gonna get worse (?).

Altera spin-off: $16 billion. 

This is not rocket science.

By the way, google intel cash burn rate and then do the same on "DuckDuckGo" and see which search engine you prefer. 

For more on cash burn rate for Intel see this short note by Motley Fool, from July 12, 2024.

Altera? FPGAs. Link here. This is almost embarrassing. 

The FPGA sector? Owned by AMD. No wonder Intel is looking to off-load Altera. Altera ppears to have no strategic value for Intel. This is absolutely fascinating. When you get serious, there are two universes: the Apple Silicon universe; and, the Android (whatever that is) universe: Nvidia and AMD with Broadcom and Qualcomm in supporting roles / niches.

On another note, some say QCOM is still interested in Intel but "pulled back," waiting for the outcome of the election. The Biden-Harris administration, some think, would frown on a huge tech company (QCOM) buying another huge tech company (INTC) to become a super-big tech company, whereas Trump-Vance might welcome such a tie-up, believing that Intel is too important to the US to fail. 

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Foreign Exchange Reserves In Russia And Saudi -- September, 2024

Locator: 48614SAUDI.

Link here.

Saudi, August, 2024, link here:

Good, Bad, Or Indifferent -- I Have No Dog In This Fight -- I Lost Interest A Long Time Ago -- October 17, 2024

Locator: 48613PRESIDENTIALPOLITICS.

Having said that...

October 17, 2024: biggest "tells" in the past 365 days suggesting Kamala Harris was on the wrong side of history: three Ivy League presidents were ousted because of their support for the Hamas (aka, the Palestinians); "every" major US corporation distanced themselves from DEI as fast as they could; and, the degree to which the US is now supporting Israel (sending US troops to Israel).

October 17, 2024: some suggest that Kamala lost ground following the Fox interview, but there's a bigger question. Why in the world did she ever agree to do an interview with Fox? Remember, she doesn't do interviews and this late in the campaign, she's not out to practice. There are only two reasons why she did the interview: internal polling showed that the race was closer than the NYTimes is making it out to be or internal polling shows she has absolutely no chance to win the race as it stands now, and it's time for her to pull out all the stops, including an interview with Fox. Making the decision to do an interview with Fox came down to this: internal polling suggested that doing the interview was her only choice.

October 17, 2024: if you look at the electoral college as it "stands" today -- unless it's very, very close in a couple of the following states, we will probably know the outcome by 8:01 p.m. CDT. Right now it hinges on these three states, and for good measure, throw in the fourth: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Wisconsin.

Director's Cut, October, 2024, Data -- Posted

Locator: 48612B.

EIA weekly petroleum report: link here.

  • US crude oil in storage: 5% below the five-year average -- where it's been for months.
  • refiners: 87.7% -- very low, but where it's been for awhile.
  • jet fuel supplied up an astounding 10.4% y/y

Gasoline demand, link here. Unremarkable.

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Back to the Bakken

Director's Cut, October, 2024, data. Link here.

Crude oil production:

  • July, 2024: 1,169,499 bopd
  • August, 2024: 1,179,131 bopd

Natural gas capture: 95%.